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Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.com
The amount of preparation, practice and pregame work that goes into a single NHL game can go a long way to helping a team execute its plan on the ice. The ability to put in that effort ahead of time is impacted on significantly when a team is playing in a back-to-back set of games.
The Los Angeles Kings and San Jose Sharks meet in a game in which each one is on the different half of a back-to-back set. The Sharks pulled out an OT win in Utah on Monday evening, while the Kings will head home to host the Vegas Golden Knights on Wednesday after Tuesday’s contest.
The Kings do come in as heavy moneyline favorites, perhaps because of some of this back-to-back history.
ESPN has saved the past three years of betting odds for us to have a look at how back-to-back teams have fared. Remembering the premise of preparation being a key component to how NHL team’s approach games, you may not be surprised to note that there is a trend when it comes to the team on the second-leg of a back-to-back.
In the past three seasons overall, when the favorite is on the road, they have won 904 out of 1,439 games — or 62.82%. But of those situations, when the home underdog is coming off a game the day before, the road favorite success rate jumps to 72.22% (130 out of 180 games). The historical data from ESPN doesn’t include spread information, but, we can still do some inference. Overall road favorites have won by two or more goals in 40.93% of those 1,439 games; when the home underdog is completing a back-to-back set, that percentage climbs to 50.56%.
Having a tired team involved, as the Sharks are bound to be on Tuesday, also helps push goal totals. In the past three seasons, the overall over/under results in games with a home underdog have gone over 47.12% of the time. But exclusively in games when that home underdogs is playing for the second time in as many days, the over has hit 57.22% of the time.
The preparation and recovery between games have had clear implications on outcomes in the recent past, particularly for teams on the second half of a back-to-back. When a road team draws a home underdog on short rest, the results tend to tip in their favor — significantly increasing their win rate and often extending the margin of victory. Additionally, whether it’s the toll on a team’s energy or the frequent use of backup goaltenders in these exact situations, the goal totals tend to rise.
Featured games
New York Rangers at Washington Capitals
7:30 p.m., Capital One Arena
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Rangers (-1.5, +165), -145 money line
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Capitals (+1.5, -200), +125 money line
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Total 5.5: (Over -135, Under +115)
From the world of one win of the Sharks, to the world of one regulation loss for the Rangers. New York visits the upstart (5-2-0) Capitals in the featured early contest.
It’s Logan Thompson‘s turn in net for Washington, assuming they continue their strict rotation, while Igor Shesterkin should be back in action for the first time since last Thursday after getting Saturday’s game off.
The Capitals are home underdogs, a label combination that has the lowest win total so far this season of the four (home/road, favorite/underdog) at just 13.1%, but the home dogs have fared well against the spread, beating it 26 out of 56 times this season (46.4%).
Of all the props, I like Tom Wilson for shots (Over 2.5, +107) because it has positive odds, the threshold isn’t as high (Alex Ovechkin gets 3.5) and the Rangers are top 10 for shots allowed to opposing top-six forwards.
Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks
10 p.m., SAP Center
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Kings (-1.5, -110), -275 money line
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Sharks (+1.5, -110), +225 money line
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Total 5.5: (Over -135, Under +115)
Given the above discussion, a Kings money line looks very good and, with a 5.5 total on offer, it can be parlayed with the over for plus odds (+121).
In the props department, the Sharks allow the fourth-most shots against to opposing top-six forwards so far this season. Kevin Fiala should be able to clear the Over 2.5 shots on goal threshold set for him (-130). For player points, Mikael Granlund has been a part of 13 of the Sharks total 23 goals, so you could argue that if they score, there is a better than 50-50 chance he earned a point (Over 0.5 Points, -230). However, the books know that, too, so you’ll need to parlay to get decent return. Consider backing Fabian Zetterlund for a goal (Over 0.5 goals, +240), as he is coming off two on Monday.
Both teams are at the bottom of the league in penalty killing, too, both with 10 power-play goals allowed on the young season. Jake Walman (Over 0.5 total goals, +650) and Brandt Clarke (Over 0.5 power play points, +375) could make for good plays from the blue line. Walman was back as the quarterback on Monday for the Sharks after ceding time there to Jack Thompson (who was a healthy scratch).
Betting trends
On Monday, the Sharks earned their first win of the season, clawing back from a 4-1 deficit with five minutes to go in the third to beat Utah Hockey Club in overtime. Is there anything to be said for momentum in a case like this? We certainly don’t have a big enough sample to look at first wins of the season as any kind of trend, but what about extending the back-to-back discussion to look at how the previous results can impact on the second leg.
With our data from the previous three seasons from ESPN, there are 391 times when a team played their second of consecutive games at home. Of those 391, the team in question won the first leg 197 times and lost 194 times.
Now the outcomes of the second leg: When a team playing at home is coming off a win the day before, they have a record of 100-97. When the home team on the second leg is coming off a loss, the record is 75-119.
This isn’t unexpected; teams that win, win and teams that lose, lose. But what if we apply expectations to drill down even further?
If that second-leg home team is also an underdog on the books and they won the day before, the record is 23-52, or a win rate of 30.7%. If that underdog team is coming off a loss to play a consecutive game at home, the record is 27-78, or a win rate of 25.7%.
That is to say, the Sharks chances are improved because they won on Monday, but only marginally.