Why Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels might win OROY, or fall short

ASHBURN, Va. — Both the Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders drafted the quarterback they wanted last spring: Chicago selected USC’s Caleb Williams first overall; one pick later, Washington took Jayden Daniels of LSU.

Each QB has lived up to his team’s expectations so far. And if they continue their promising trajectories, the pair could be competing for individual and team honors in the years to come. But it begins with one award this season: the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year.

When the Commanders (5-2) host the Bears (4-2) on Sunday (4:25 p.m., ET, CBS) at Northwest Stadium, Daniels will enter the game as the odds-on favorite to win the award at -120, according to ESPN BET. Williams is next at +105, followed by the New York Giants‘ Malik Nabers (+2200) and the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ Brian Thomas Jr. (+2500).

There is a chance the storyline of the frontrunners for the award facing each other could be spoiled, however, as Daniels is questionable with a rib injury. But the award will be for a season, not one game.

ESPN Bears reporter Courtney Cronin and Commanders reporter John Keim size up the OROY chances for Williams and Daniels.

Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Stats: Daniels has thrown for 1,410 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions and trails the Buffalo Bills‘ Josh Allen (77.6) and the Baltimore Ravens‘ Lamar Jackson (74.3) in total QBR at 73.9. Daniels has run for 372 yards and four touchdowns. He leads the NFL in completion percentage at 75.6.

Beyond the stats: With 90 passing yards and 28 rushing yards, Daniels would join former Washington star Robert Griffin III as the only players in NFL history with 1,500 passing yards and 400 rushing yards in their first eight career games. Daniels already set two records: the highest completion percentage after four games with 82.1% and the first to complete at least 85% of his passes in consecutive games.

Why he could win OROY: After four games, he was already being mentioned as a possible MVP candidate and was named Rookie of the Month for September. There are multiple reasons for Washington’s offensive resurgence — coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and his staff among them. But it all starts with Daniels.

Washington averages 30.1 points per game — it hasn’t topped 20 points per game for a season since 2017. Daniels’ accuracy helps the pass game, and the threat of him running helps others in the run game.

Consider, too, that Daniels joined a franchise that hasn’t had a winning season since 2016 and won only four games last year — and has a new coaching staff and overhauled roster. Yet, after only seven games, the Commanders are considered a strong contender to win the division.

“He’s the leader of our team,” veteran tight end Zach Ertz said. “He’s a phenomenal player and is going to be a great player for a long time.”

Why he might fall short: Daniels’ durability in the second half will be tested. He’s been hit 79 times this season, sixth most among quarterbacks.

At 210 pounds, Daniels is slight — will injuries slow him at all down the stretch? More likely, Williams might emerge with the talent around him. He has a QBR of 75.3 in his last three games, compared to 46.5 for the season, and he benefits from a stronger defense that yields more opportunities. — Keim

Caleb Williams, Bears

Stats: Williams has thrown for 1,317 yards, nine touchdowns and five interceptions. His 65.3% completion percentage and 88.7 passer rating both rank 20th among starting quarterbacks, while his 46.4 Total QBR is 26th. After a bumpy 1-2 start, Williams has thrown six touchdowns and just one interception in his last two games for an offense that ranks 12th in points per game (24.7).

Beyond the stats: If Williams throws for 300 yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders, he’ll become the fifth quarterback in the Super Bowl era to have three such games in his first seven starts.

Why he could win OROY: Williams had a passer rating above 100 in each of his last three games while completing 74.1% of his passes since Week 4, and he is the catalyst for an offense with a lot of potential.

Chicago’s offense has begun to take off by racking up 35 points in back-to-back wins over the Carolina Panthers and Jaguars. The No. 1 overall pick is three passing touchdowns away from setting a rookie franchise record (12) and would eclipse Mitchell Trubisky‘s Bears rookie passing record (2,193 yards) by averaging 219.5 yards per game.

And while he’s raised the bar for a once-dormant passing attack, Williams has also shown that he can be a threat to create outside of structure with 110 rushing yards (7.3 yards/run) in his last three games.

“I mean, who are defenses going to stop?” wide receiver Keenan Allen said. “Are you going to stop the quarterback or stop the guys running the routes? It’s hard to do both.”

Why he may fall short: Team success could influence a player’s odds for winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. Stroud won it last year by leading the Houston Texans to the postseason. The Bears will need to keep winning in a stacked NFC North, where all four teams have winning records and the three defenses that Williams will face two times each from Weeks 11-18 rank inside the top-10 in EPA/play.

That stretch will ultimately determine whether the Bears are a playoff team, and their path to getting there will require a lot from their rookie quarterback. — Cronin