Lando Norris has been closing the gap to drivers’ championship leader Max Verstappen since the summer break but will he be able to overhaul the Dutchman over the final six races of 2024?
BBC Sport analyses the Formula 1 title battle to examine what the McLaren driver needs to do, the factors that may help him and whether history offers him hope.
When and where are the remaining six races?
18-20 October: United States Grand Prix*
25-27 October: Mexican Grand Prix
1-3 November: Brazilian Grand Prix*
22-24 November: Las Vegas Grand Prix
29 November-1 December: Qatar Grand Prix*
6-8 December: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
*denotes a sprint event, with the additional race on the Saturday before the main grand prix on the Sunday
Norris is 52 points behind Red Bull’s Verstappen with six races to go – three of which are sprint events, and a total of 180 points are available.
That means Norris needs to close on Verstappen by an average of 8.9 points per race – more than the difference between first and second places but less than the difference between first and third.
How are points awarded for finishing positions?
The points for the top 10 places in a grand prix are: 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1
What difference will sprint races make?
There are more points available at a sprint event. In addition to the points for a grand prix, the winner of the sprint receives eight points, second place seven and so on down to eighth.
Verstappen has won all three sprint races so far, although the last one was in June, in Austria. He has not taken the chequered flag first since then.
Will fastest laps be a factor?
Yes. There’s a point for the driver who sets fastest lap as long as he finishes in the top 10, and every point could count.
There is no point for fastest lap in a sprint.
Can their team-mates make a difference?
Yes. If McLaren’s Oscar Piastri can beat Verstappen, then it reduces Verstappen’s ability to score points. The same goes for Red Bull’s Sergio Perez on both Norris and Piastri, but given the Mexican’s poor form, that seems less likely.
Does Norris need assistance from Ferrari and Mercedes?
He doesn’t need it, but it would help. The more drivers who can get between Norris and Verstappen – the lower Verstappen finishes, in other words – the better it is for Norris.
Will certain tracks favour certain teams or drivers?
It’s very hard to answer this question.
Before Monza, McLaren believed that would be a relatively weak circuit for them, but they qualified first and second, although Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc beat them to victory.
Before Singapore, you might have said that street circuits were Red Bull’s Achilles heel, which would have led one to believe Las Vegas might be an issue for Verstappen.
But Verstappen finished second in Singapore, against expectations.
So, the answer seems to be no. It’s just a question of who does the best job each weekend.
What happens if the drivers finish level on points?
If drivers tie on points, the winner is determined by results countback. Initially that would be who has the most wins. If that is equal, then who has the most second places and so on.
Have Norris and Verstappen clashed this season?
Yes. They collided while fighting for the lead in Austria. Verstappen was penalised for the manoeuvre, but that did not help Norris, as he retired and Verstappen finished fifth, a position not affected by the 10-second penalty he was given.
Although title battles tend to introduce tension in the relationship between the drivers in question, their off-track relationship remains good.
Have eventual world champions come from a long way back before?
Yes. In 2007, Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen was 17 points behind McLaren’s Lewis Hamilton with two races to go. There was a different points system them, and that was the equivalent of 43 points now. The Finn won by a point.
Other examples include 1986, when McLaren’s Alain Prost was 11 points behind Williams’ Nigel Mansell – the equivalent of 33 points now – with two races to go and won. And 1983, when Brabham’s Nelson Piquet was 14 points – the equivalent of 43 points now – behind Prost with three races to go and won.
How have McLaren managed to close the gap to Red Bull?
Red Bull started the season with a comfortably faster car than McLaren, who were third fastest behind Ferrari as well in the first five races. But a big upgrade in Miami made the McLaren competitive overnight.
As time has gone by, the McLaren has got more and more competitive and the Red Bull has fallen back. It remains to be seen what happens over the final six races, when both teams are expected to introduce further upgrades.
Because of his 52-point lead, Verstappen remains the favourite to win the drivers’ championship but McLaren are well set to take the constructors’ title.
Words: Andrew Benson and Alan Jewell
Graphics: Andy Dicks