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NFL Nation, ESPN
The Week 10 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with game projections. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final-score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 10 slate, including the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots in Frankfurt, Germany, an AFC North showdown between the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens and an intriguing interconference matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
IND-NE | HOU-CIN | NO-MIN
GB-PIT | TEN-TB | SF-JAX
CLE-BAL | ATL-ARI | DET-LAC
NYG-DAL | WSH-SEA | NYJ-LV | DEN-BUF
Thursday: CHI 16, CAR 13
Bye: KC, LAR, MIA, PHI
9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: IND -2.5 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: This is the Patriots’ fourth international regular-season game, as they beat the Buccaneers 35-7 on Oct. 25, 2009, and the Rams 45-7 on Oct. 28, 2012 — both at London’s Wembley Stadium. They also beat the Raiders 33-8 on Nov. 19, 2017, in Mexico City. This is just the Colts’ second regular-season international game; they lost to the Jaguars 30-27 in 2016. — Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: There will be three or fewer total touchdowns scored between both teams. The Patriots are 31st in points per game and have scored more than 17 points just twice this season. And while the Colts have been scoring at an impressive clip (25.8 ppg), the Patriots’ tendency is to sell out to stop the run. That means Colts RBs Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss could be in for a long day. Several teams have taken a similar approach against Indianapolis lately, and QB Gardner Minshew has committed a concerning number of turnovers when asked to carry a heavier load. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Michael Pittman Jr. has six games with eight-plus receptions. He can become the second Colts player with seven such games in a season, joining Marvin Harrison (12 in 2002, seven in 2001).
Matchup X factor: Patriots wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster. He’s tied for 84th out of 86 wideouts in open score, drastically underperforming Jakobi Meyers — the player the Patriots effectively chose Smith-Schuster over. With Kendrick Bourne out for the rest of the season, New England simply has to get more out of its 2023 free agent signing. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Patriots’ offensive line ranks ninth in run block win rate, which bodes well for Rhamondre Stevenson — who has scored 14 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. The Indianapolis defense allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots are 1-10 ATS in their past 11 games as underdogs. Quarterback Mac Jones is 4-14 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 1-13 ATS in his past 14 starts in that role. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 17, Patriots 13
Walder’s pick: Colts 19, Patriots 16
FPI prediction: IND, 52.2% (by an average of 0.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Colts’ Downs ruled out with knee injury … Patriots’ latest issue: Giving up big plays on defense
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CIN -6.5 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: The Bengals know better than to overlook Houston QB C.J. Stroud, who is coming off a 470-yard, five-TD performance against Tampa Bay. Houston leads the league in fewest turnovers per drive, and the Bengals are fourth in the NFL in turnovers forced per drive. Another thing to watch: Houston is second in the NFL in team pass rush win rate (57.8%). — Ben Baby
Bold prediction: The Texans’ defense will hold the Bengals to fewer than 300 yards. In the Bengals’ four-game winning streak, they’re 13th in total offense (347.8 yards per game), but injuries to the Bengals receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins should impact the production of Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense as a whole. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Bengals are 4-0 since Week 5 with a plus-9.5 points per game differential, the third-best mark in the NFL over that span. They are one of two teams undefeated in that time (Jaguars).
0:44
Louis Riddick: C.J. Stroud is a top-10 QB
Louis Riddick explains why C.J. Stroud’s hot start could put him in the MVP conversation.
Matchup X factor: Texans edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Will Anderson Jr. Putting pressure on Burrow would be the easiest way to slow a red-hot Bengals passing attack, and both Greenard and Anderson rank in the top 15 in pass rush win rate. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Texans tight end Dalton Schultz set career highs in both receptions (10) and receiving yards (130) against the Buccaneers on Sunday. He’ll face a Bengals defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. There should be plenty of passing volume against Cincinnati because the Texans are sizable underdogs. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Texans are 4-1 ATS as underdogs with four straight covers. They are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games as underdogs. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bengals 33, Texans 24
Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Texans 23
FPI prediction: CIN, 65.3% (by an average of 5.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Stroud’s NFL star is born … Bengals unsure if Chase (back) can play vs. Texans … Rookie success: Dell’s connection with Stroud helped deliver game winner for Texans
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: NO -3 (40.5)
Storyline to watch: Can the Vikings’ defense continue its strong play — it ranks No. 3 in defensive efficiency during the Vikings’ four-game winning streak — against Saints quarterback Derek Carr? Over the same period, Carr has led the NFL in passing yards (1,175), and he has eclipsed 300 yards in his past two road games. — Kevin Seifert
Bold prediction: Vikings QB Joshua Dobbs will set a season high in rushing yards, rushing for at least 70 yards. The Saints have struggled to contain quarterback runs, with Bears QB Tyson Bagent (70 yards) and Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (59 yards) giving the run defense trouble. Dobbs had 66 rushing yards against the Falcons last week in his first game with the Vikings and has had at least 40 rushing yards in six games between the Vikings and the Cardinals. He can easily hit 70 yards unless the Saints fixed their QB run issue this week. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: Alvin Kamara has seven rushing touchdowns in three games against Minnesota in his career, which is tied for his most vs. any team (Tampa Bay — seven in 12 games played). He had six rushing touchdowns vs. the Vikings on Dec. 25, 2020, the most rushing touchdowns in a single game in NFL history.
Matchup X factor: Saints cornerback Paulson Adebo. He deserves love for his four interceptions, including two last week. Adebo has the fifth-lowest yards per coverage snap allowed among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That indicates strong play-to-play performance beyond the picks. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: With 14 red zone possessions over the past three weeks, the Saints are tied for second in the league. Over that period, New Orleans ranks third in pass attempts per game. This season, the Vikings give up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings have covered four straight games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Saints 24, Vikings 21
Walder’s pick: Saints 20, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: MIN, 49.9% (by an average of 0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Midseason Q&A with Saints general manager Mickey Loomis … Did we see Kevin O’Connell’s best coaching work for the Vikings?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PIT -3.5 (38.5)
Storyline to watch: Both teams enter Sunday’s meeting in the midst of a ground-game resurgence. In Pittsburgh, the introduction of rookie Broderick Jones at right tackle helped key a season-high 166 rushing yards against the Titans, while in Green Bay, a mostly healthy Aaron Jones (hamstring) posted season highs in carries (20) and yards (73). The Steelers’ run defense, though, held Titans RB Derrick Henry to 75 yards a week ago thanks in part to the return of defensive tackle Cameron Heyward. However, slowing Jones and AJ Dillon will be tougher after three-down inside linebacker Cole Holcomb suffered a season-ending knee injury last week and with nose tackle Montravius Adams dealing with an ankle injury. — Brooke Pryor
Bold prediction: This will not be a 3-3 game at halftime. One of these putrid first-half offenses will get going early. Perhaps it’s the Packers, who broke a string of five straight games without a first-half touchdown this past Sunday. Still, the Packers’ first-half point differential is minus-55 (30th in the NFL), and the Steelers’ is minus-43 (26th in the league). The Steelers have the worst first-half yardage differential (minus-790), right behind Green Bay (minus-594). — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Packers have not won in Pittsburgh since 1970, when Bart Starr was the starting QB. They have lost five straight games at Pittsburgh since, with each of the past two coming on a winning score as time expired.
0:47
Fulghum expects a low-scoring affair between the Packers and Steelers
Tyler Fulghum gives a couple bets he’s looking at when the Packers head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers.
Matchup X factor: Packers right tackle Zach Tom. He’ll be responsible for slowing T.J. Watt, but Tom might be up for the challenge, as he ranks 10th in pass block win rate at tackle. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: In the past four games against the Steelers’ defense, quarterbacks have averaged 11.8 fantasy points. This group includes Will Levis, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford and Lamar Jackson. Temper your expectations if you have Jordan Love or Packers pass-catchers in your lineup. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers are 3-0 outright and ATS against teams with losing records (all three games went under the total). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Steelers 21, Packers 19
Walder’s pick: Packers 23, Steelers 16
FPI prediction: PIT, 59.5% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Comparing Packers’ Love, Rodgers, Favre … Harris, Johnson offer Pickens guidance … Watson’s deep catch boosts Packers’ struggling offense
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: TB -1 (39.5)
Storyline to watch: In the midst of a four-game slide, the Bucs’ defense surrendered 470 yards and five touchdowns to Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud last week in a record-setting performance for the rookie. Now they get second-round pick Will Levis, who threw four touchdown passes against the Falcons two weeks ago but struggled under duress from the Steelers last week. — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: Levis will record his first 300-yard passing game. The Titans haven’t had a 300-yard passer since Ryan Tannehill finished with 333 yards against the Packers in Week 9 last season. Levis has shown flashes in his first two starts. There should be plenty of opportunities against a Buccaneers pass defense that is allowing 279.4 passing yards per game (31st in NFL). — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: The Buccaneers’ four-game losing streak is tied for their longest in a single season over the past five seasons (2019 Weeks 5-9). With a loss Sunday, it would be their longest skid since losing five straight in 2017 (Weeks 12-16).
Matchup X factor: Buccaneers guard Cody Mauch. He’ll be primarily responsible for stopping Titans defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and on paper, this looks like a mismatch. Mauch ranks 59th out of 70 qualifiers in pass block win rate at guard. He’s 54th in run block win rate at the position, too. — Walder
Injuries: Titans | Buccaneers
What to know for fantasy: Levis has a passer rating of 132.3 when targeting DeAndre Hopkins over the past two games. During that time, the veteran receiver has stockpiled 17 targets. Hopkins faces a Buccaneers defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight meetings. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Titans 27, Buccaneers 24
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 23, Titans 17
FPI prediction: TB, 54.6% (by an average of 1.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Patience has paid off in the Titans’ development of Levis … How troubling defensive trends are plaguing Bucs amid skid … Tannehill, now Titans backup, admits change ‘hits hard’ … Dean suffers concussion against Texans
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -3 (45.5)
Storyline to watch: This game will be the first look at the 49ers’ Nick Bosa–Chase Young pass-rush combination. The 49ers traded for Young (five sacks) to boost a pass rush that ranks 24th in the NFL with 18 sacks. They’ll be facing Jaguars rookie right tackle Anton Harrison and veteran left tackle Cam Robinson, who have combined to allow 10 of the team’s 19 sacks. Getting the ball out quickly is going to be a priority for quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who is on pace to be sacked a career-high 40 times in 2023. — Michael DiRocco
Bold prediction: 49ers WR Deebo Samuel returns from a shoulder injury and goes over 100 scrimmage yards with a touchdown. The Jaguars play more zone coverage than any team in the league and though they tackle well, the openings in that zone have meant allowing an average of 134.8 yards after the catch per game, fifth most in the league. Samuel should be fresh after the down time and poised to take advantage of some cracks in that zone. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The Jaguars are 4-0 vs. teams that entered with a winning record, which is tied with Eagles for most such wins without a loss. They have allowed 14.3 points per game in those four games, tied for fourth lowest in the NFL.
0:52
Why Stephen A. sees the 49ers falling to the Jaguars
Stephen A. Smith breaks down why he sees the Jaguars sending the 49ers to their fourth straight loss.
Matchup X factor: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. He’s only 14th in QBR since Week 6, and the Jaguars have a good defense that is fourth in EPA per play and top 10 against both the run and the pass. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Over the past three games, the 49ers’ defense has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game. Given this recent statistical trend, managers should not hesitate to start Lawrence or wide receivers Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley. It will be interesting to see what adjustments the 49ers have made during the bye week. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The 49ers are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games off a bye (2-4 ATS under Kyle Shanahan). Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 30, Jaguars 27
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Jaguars 21
FPI prediction: SF, 56.2% (by an average of 2.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: How McCaffrey has boosted 49ers’ offense since trade … Jaguars to add inaugural GM/coach Tom Coughlin into ring of honor
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: BAL -6.5 (38.5)
Storyline to watch: This is a matchup of the two best defenses in the NFL. The Browns, who lead the NFL in fewest yards allowed (234.8), are looking to finish as the league’s No. 1 defense for the first time since 1955. The Ravens, who top the NFL in fewest points allowed (13.8), have given up nine touchdowns on 105 drives (8.6%), their lowest rate since the 2000 Super Bowl team (8.2%). — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Despite playing a Ravens defense that ranks No. 1 in efficiency, QB Deshaun Watson will play his best game in a Browns uniform, giving Cleveland a chance to pull off the upset. Watson, who returned from a rotator cuff strain a week ago, has not produced a QBR game topping 80.0 in his Browns career. He will achieve that feat Sunday. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett is 0.5 sacks away from his sixth straight 10-sack season, which would extend the longest active streak in the NFL. He would be the seventh player with six or more straight seasons with 10-plus sacks since it became an official individual stat in 1982.
0:40
Tyler Fulghum’s bet on the total in Browns-Ravens
Tyler Fulghum details his reasons he’s taking the under when the Browns face the Ravens.
Matchup X factor: The Ravens’ run blocking. The Ravens rank fourth in run block win rate this season and second in EPA per designed carry. That will be critical against a Browns defense that is arguably the best in the league against the pass but not quite as strong stopping the run. As long as Baltimore can run the ball, it should be able to roll. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Along with being the top two defenses in terms of points allowed per game, the Browns and Ravens are also in the top three for fewest points allowed per game. I don’t think this matchup is going to be a fantasy bonanza. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Ravens are 4-1 ATS this season against teams currently with winning records. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 31, Browns 21
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Browns 17
FPI prediction: BAL, 69.9% (by an average of 7.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Dawgs unleashed: How the Browns built one of the NFL’s top defenses … How the Ravens are dominating the NFL … Browns LT Wills to go on IR with MCL injury … John Harbaugh: ‘No doubt’ AFC North is NFL’s best division
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: ATL -2 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is set to make his 2023 debut barring any potential setback. It’ll be exactly 11 months since he last played, in Week 14 last season when he tore his ACL on “Monday Night Football” against the Patriots. As his welcome-back gift, he’ll face the sixth-ranked Falcons defense, which is ranked in the top 10 in passing yards allowed per game and per play. — Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: Both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier will top 75 yards rushing, and each will score a touchdown. In what feels like a must-win game for the Falcons, they return their focus to what they do best against a Cardinals team that has allowed more than 100 yards rushing in seven of their past eight games. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to know: The Cardinals’ six-game losing streak is the NFL’s longest active streak. Arizona’s 1-15 record since Week 11 last season is the worst in the league. Another loss would put the Cardinals at 1-16 in their past 17 games, their worst record over a 17-game span since 1946 (1-16).
Matchup X factor: Murray. How could it not be? Will Murray be rusty? His old self? His old self but with less rushing? Arizona’s fortunes both in this game and the rest of the season (and, perhaps, for years to come) depend on the answers to those questions. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Cardinals WR Marquise Brown and Murray have meshed in their few games together as Cardinals, as Murray has averaged 21.1 fantasy points in the eight games he has played with Brown. So both the QB and the WR might benefit against the Falcons. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their past five games as favorites (1-5 ATS as favorites this season). Since 2018, the Falcons are 13-26 ATS as favorites (6-11 ATS under Arthur Smith). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 19, Falcons 18
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 23, Falcons 20
FPI prediction: ATL, 57.3% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Falcons averse to playing musical chairs with QBs … What’s at stake for Murray, Cardinals over final eight games
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DET -3 (48.5)
Storyline to watch: Sunday will be something of a reunion for Brandon Staley and Jared Goff. Staley used to coach against Goff daily at practice when he was defensive coordinator for the Rams in 2020 and Goff was the Rams’ starting quarterback. That 2020 season was the last season with the Rams for both: Goff was traded to Detroit and Staley became coach of the Chargers. On Sunday, they will face off for the first time since. — Kris Rhim
Bold prediction: Rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs will rush for 100 yards or more for a second straight game. Although the Chargers’ defense is holding teams to only 89.8 rushing yards per game, which is tied for sixth in the NFL, Gibbs will continue to shine as he builds off his breakout performance on “Monday Night Football” in Week 8, when he rushed for a career-best 152 yards on 26 carries. Gibbs, the No. 12 overall pick, is confident, and the Lions want to continue to keep him involved. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Chargers’ plus-9 turnover margin is tied with the Bengals for the best in NFL. They have played 11 straight games without losing the turnover battle, the longest active streak in the NFL and their longest streak since 2004 (14 straight).
Matchup X factor: Chargers wide receiver Quentin Johnston. Beating the Jets with a short-handed receiving corps is one thing; the Lions are a whole other ballgame. And with Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer hurt, the Chargers really need Johnston to step up. So far, it hasn’t happened. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Lions’ offense ranks 24th in red zone efficiency. It was something offensive coordinator Ben Johnson focused on during the bye week. The Lions, who rank ninth in points per game, could be even more successful with a revamped red zone package against a Chargers defense that ranks 16th in red zone efficiency. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Lions are 16-3 ATS in games in November or later under Dan Campbell (9-1 ATS last season). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 35, Chargers 30
Walder’s pick: Lions 34, Chargers 27
FPI prediction: LAC, 59% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Campbell, Lions believe there’s room for growth despite 6-2 start … Chargers’ defense finds its groove … Lions trade pick to Browns for Peoples-Jones … Inside the Jackson breakup
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DAL -17 (38.5)
Storyline to watch: Dak Prescott has won 11 straight games against the Giants after losing both contests to New York as a rookie. He has 23 touchdown passes against the Giants, the most against any team. It seems likely he’ll get to 12 consecutive wins, as the Giants will start undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito at quarterback with Daniel Jones out for the season because of a torn ACL. The Cowboys are 3-0 at AT&T Stadium with an average margin of victory of 26 points. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: The Giants will hold Dallas under 20 points. Let’s consider last week in Las Vegas a blip on the radar. New York’s defense had allowed 33 points in the previous three games, which included a matchup with Josh Allen in Buffalo. This group has pride, and the game plan will be to slow down this contest. The Giants will do that with their defense and running game (Saquon Barkley). — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: The Cowboys are 10-1 following a loss since the start of the 2021 season, the best win percentage in the NFL. Dallas has outscored its opponents by more than 16 points per game in that situation (32.4-16.3) and has a plus-17 turnover differential. The Cowboys have not suffered consecutive regular-season losses since Weeks 11 and 12 of the 2021 season.
Matchup X factor: Giants edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux. It seems hard to imagine the Giants scoring on offense, so they probably will need pick-sixes or strip sacks galore to have a chance. Thibodeaux has 8.5 sacks. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: CeeDee Lamb shares a Cowboys franchise record with Michael Irvin for the most games with 10 receptions and 150 receiving yards, each achieving this feat three times. In his career, Lamb has averaged 16 fantasy points per game against the Giants. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Giants games are 8-1 to the under, the highest under percentage in the NFL. Giants games have gone under the total in seven straight games, the longest active streak. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 33, Giants 12
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 40, Giants 3
FPI prediction: DAL, 89.8% (by an average of 17.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Is this the beginning of the end for Jones in NY? … Prescott putting body on the line for Cowboys’ offense … Giants DC hurt by McKinney’s comments … Cowboys not discouraged by loss to Eagles
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SEA -6.5 (44.5)
Storyline to watch: Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith is mired in a turnover funk, with six interceptions plus two lost fumbles over the past four games. Not all of those were Smith’s fault, and the Seahawks’ offensive issues go well beyond their quarterback. After one of the worst losses of the Pete Carroll era last week, the Seahawks have a bounce-back opportunity against the Commanders’ 28th-ranked defense, which is allowing 368.9 yards per game. Washington traded two big defensive threats, defensive ends Montez Sweat and Chase Young, at the deadline. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Seattle will have three pass plays of 25 yards or more, with receiver Tyler Lockett grabbing two of those — one for a touchdown. Washington has allowed 22 pass plays of 25 yards or more, second most in the NFL, and it would have been more had New England executed better on several opportunities last week. The Seahawks have only 16 such pass plays, 14th in the league, but preventing these plays has been the Commanders’ No. 1 issue on defense. — John Keim
Stat to know: Seahawks linebacker Boye Mafe has six straight games with at least one full sack, tied for the longest streak by a Seahawks player since 1982, when sacks became official (Michael Sinclair, six straight from 1997 to ’98). He faces Washington QB Sam Howell, who has been sacked a league-high 44 times.
Matchup X factor: Commanders cornerback Benjamin St-Juste. Kendall Fuller is having a very nice season, but the Seahawks have two great receivers who need stopping in DK Metcalf and Lockett. St-Juste’s numbers haven’t been good: He’s allowing 1.7 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, fourth most among outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. — Walder
Injuries: Commanders | Seahawks
What to know for fantasy: Quarterbacks have scored the second-most fantasy points per game against the Commanders’ defense. However, over the past four games the Seahawks have scored a touchdown on just 13% of their drives. Smith’s fantasy ceiling could be low in this game unless this improves. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 4-0 ATS as road underdogs. They are 4-1 ATS overall on the road. The Commanders are also 8-2-2 ATS in their past 12 games as underdogs. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 28, Commanders 21
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 23, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: SEA, 63.5% (by an average of 4.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Young ‘wasn’t mad’ about trade to 49ers … Pete Carroll defends QB Smith after Seahawks routed by Ravens … We found our next quarterback’: Howell making case to be Commanders’ future at QB
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: NYJ -1 (36.5)
Storyline to watch: While Raiders interim coach Antonio Pierce has made it a point to emphasize that he is not the story, there has been an immediate and noticeable change in culture in Silver and Blackdom under his watch, and the players have reacted accordingly. From Pierce’s defensive mindset — the Raiders had eight sacks in his debut — to the way the Jets reflect coach Robert Saleh (New York has the No. 3-ranked passing defense in the league), expect a slugfest. “It ain’t going to be a shootout, I can tell you that,” Pierce laughed. “The best part about it, me and Robert don’t play against one another. He’s got to get Davante [Adams], I’ve got to worry about [Quinnen] Williams and all those guys that they’ve got on their side of the ball.” — Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: Jets QB Zach Wilson and Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell will combine for fewer than 300 passing yards. The Jets won’t have any problem with the Las Vegas rookie after holding the Chargers’ Justin Herbert to a career-low 136 yards. Likewise, the Raiders will limit Wilson, who has posted fewer than 200 yards in five of eight games. Don’t be surprised if the Jets turn to Tim Boyle if Wilson fails to generate offense in the first half. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Jets have had eight offensive touchdowns, the fewest in the NFL and tied for the third fewest in their first eight games of a season in franchise history. The only seasons when they had fewer offensive touchdowns through eight games were in 1976 and 2020 (seven in both seasons).
1:02
McAfee: It’s over for Zach Wilson and the Jets if he’s benched
Pat McAfee goes through the potential repercussions if the Jets decide to bench Zach Wilson.
Matchup X factor: The Jets’ offensive line. Let’s be clear: Wilson is the Jets’ No. 1 problem right now. But the offensive line has to make his life easier, too. It should be able to do that against a weak Raiders pass rush. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Jets’ defense allows the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Because of this, New York’s defense allows running backs to score the 10th-most fantasy points per game, but the Jets rank third in run stop win rate. Josh Jacobs has averaged 16 fantasy points per game in 69 games in which he has had 15 or more touches. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders have covered three straight home games. All four Raiders home games have gone under the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Raiders 19, Jets 14
Walder’s pick: Jets 20, Raiders 13
FPI prediction: NYJ, 55.6% (by an average of 1.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Coach Robert Saleh ‘on the same page’ with Jets leadership on Wilson … Raiders hope Wilson can blossom down the stretch … Rodgers hints at return timeline: ‘Few fortnights’ … Is Raiders’ breakthrough performance against Giants sustainable?
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: BUF -7 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: Both of these offenses are looking to buck some unwanted trends. For the Bills, they’re looking to win the turnover battle for the first time since Week 4; on the Broncos’ side, prime time has not been kind to quarterback Russell Wilson, who is averaging 12 points per game in five prime-time starts with Denver — the fourth lowest through a player’s first five prime-time starts with a franchise since the merger in 1970. — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Von Miller will do his best to remind his former team why he is one of the best defensive players in the franchise’s history by recording two sacks. Miller has just one quarterback hit and no sacks since his return last month from a torn ACL he suffered during the 2022 season, but this is the first time he has faced the Broncos since Denver traded him just before 2021 trade deadline. Miller had all eight of his Pro Bowl seasons with the Broncos, totaled 110.5 sacks in his 10 years with the team and turned in one of the best defensive performances in Super Bowl history when he was named MVP of Super Bowl 50 — the last postseason game the Broncos played in. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos have lost seven consecutive “Monday Night Football” games, the second-longest active streak in the NFL (the Giants have lost eight straight).
Matchup X factor: Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas. The Bills’ pass defense needs help: Since Week 6, it ranks 29th in EPA per dropback allowed. Someone has to step up, and Douglas, the player acquired from Green Bay at the trade deadline, is a logical person to provide improvement. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Broncos have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. After Dawson Knox‘s injury, fantasy managers should start Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid, who has scored 15 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games. You shouldn’t overlook James Cook, because no other defense gives up more fantasy points per game to running backs than the Broncos. See Week 10 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 0-5 ATS in their past five games, the longest active streak in the NFL and the Bills’ longest streak since a six-game streak from 1976 to ’77. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 24, Broncos 20
Walder’s pick: Bills 30, Broncos 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 78.9% (by an average of 10.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Will the Broncos right the ship coming off their bye week? … Allen, Bills still struggling to get their offense on track