The American Athletic Association replaced quality with quantity. It will take a while to figure out if that was the right move.
Easily the most consistently strong of the conferences known (to AAC commissioner Mike Aresco’s annoyance) as college football’s mid-major Group of 5, the AAC lost Cincinnati, Houston and UCF — winners of the 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2021 conference titles, not to mention the 2014 Fiesta Bowl (UCF), 2015 Peach Bowl (Houston) and 2018 Peach Bowl (UCF) and participants in the 2021 College Football Playoff (Cincy) — to the Big 12 in the latest round of the Realignment Wars. Other AAC programs have thrived at times during the CFP era, but that’s a lot of program power to lose.
As tends to be the case with conference realignment, when members are plucked away by someone higher up on the totem pole, the same is then done to someone lower. The AAC took a whopping six schools from Conference USA, including the winners of the past six C-USA crowns: UTSA (2021 and 2022), UAB (2018 and 2020) and Florida Atlantic (2017 and 2019). They tossed in the 2013 champ (Rice), a team that has played in two C-USA Championships six years (North Texas) and a major-market Charlotte team as well.
Only one of these teams (UTSA) is projected to compete for a conference title immediately. Four of the other five are breaking in new head coaches, and Rice remains interred in a long-term rebuild. But when you can’t have a better AAC, you might as well have a bigger one.
Let’s preview the AAC! We’ll look at the six newcomers this week and the eight holdovers next week.
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 133 FBS teams. The previews will include 2022 breakdowns, 2023 previews and burning questions for each team.
Earlier previews: Conference USA, part 1 | Conference USA, part 2 | MAC East | MAC West | MWC Mountain | MWC West | Sun Belt West | Sun Belt West
2022 recap
Indeed, the newbies were well-represented in recent C-USA Championships, including 2022’s, in which UTSA made much shorter work of North Texas than it had in the regular season. Jeff Traylor’s Roadrunners went on a 17-0 run in the second quarter and led by double digits for most of the way; when the Mean Green cut their lead to 34-27 early in the fourth quarter, they responded with a pair of touchdowns and a 48-27 win.
In all, it was a pretty frustrating season for this group of six teams, as one might expect from the whole “four teams with new head coaches” thing. UTSA ended up with 11 wins, running its record to 23-5 over the past two years, but North Texas went 7-7 and fired Seth Littrell. UAB went 7-6 (with five one-score losses) and elected not to give the full-time job to interim Bryant Vincent (who had taken over for Bill Clark the previous summer). FAU fired Willie Taggart after a 5-7 campaign, and Charlotte let Will Healy go after he went just 10-20 in the three years following 2019’s bowl run. Rice was noteworthy simply because it kept head coach Mike Bloomgren after a unique 5-8 bowl campaign. And while Traylor remains a hot name for future coaching carousels, he will spend at least one more season in San Antonio.
2023 projections
Teams in bold are discussed in this piece.
With the AAC heading into 2023 as a divisionless 14-team mass, it appears intra-conference schedule strength is going to make a pretty big difference in the races for both AAC Championship berths and bowl bids. The conference boasts one projected top-40 team, three between 55th and 61st and a mass of 10 teams between 81st and 111th. Navy is projected 97th overall with an overall schedule strength that also ranks 97th and, per SP+, a 45% chance at bowl eligibility; UAB is 98th overall, but with a schedule strength ranked 69th and only a 28% chance at bowling.
UTSA is indeed an AAC contender for 2023; from the huge blob of 81st-111th teams, it appears FAU has the best shot at rising up and surprising. Tom Herman’s Owls came in third in February’s returning production rankings, they avoid SMU and Memphis, and they get both Tulane and UTSA at home. That could make a difference.
Burning questions
Does the Last Dance at UTSA end in a third straight title? It’s difficult to pull off a double-dip in the continuity department, but UTSA has done so in 2023.
After winning the 2021 C-USA Championship, Traylor and the Roadrunners returned starting quarterback Frank Harris, most of their receiving corps (including star Zakhari Franklin), three offensive line starters and nine players who had seen at least 300 defensive snaps.
After winning the 2022 C-USA Championship, they return Harris, most of their receiving corps (including Franklin), three offensive line starters and 11 defenders with at least 300 snaps.
Harris’ return was a bit of a surprise, but he could become an interesting trendsetter as it pertains to schools using name, image and likeness (NIL) funds to convince stars who wouldn’t necessarily be first- or second-day draft picks to stick around an extra season. He’s thrown for 9,356 yards, rushed for 1,822 and contributed to a 99 total touchdowns over parts of four seasons, and his return seems to have convinced a few others who might have otherwise left that another year in San Antonio isn’t the worst thing in the world. (If NIL funds aren’t enough of a draw, the bread at La Panaderia down by the Riverwalk would certainly keep me in town longer.)
This really is taking on a bit of a “Last Dance” feel: back-to-back champs with unusual continuity making one last charge before inevitable change. And the schedule suggests big things could be possible; SP+ projects them as multi-score favorites in eight games with two relative tossups: at Houston in Week 1 and at FAU in Week 8.
Harris will be working with a new coordinator after co-OC and QBs coach Will Stein left for Oregon. Traylor promoted from within, naming associate head coach Justin Burke as the new OC and former analyst Sean Davis as the new QBs coach. We’ll see how much Burke changes about the unique “short routes and long routes (and almost nothing in between)” passing game in which Harris, Franklin and other veteran receivers like Joshua Cephus and De’Corian Clark have thrived. Sophomore Kevorian Barnes will take over at RB; in front of him will be four linemen who earned at least honorable mention All-Conference USA status over the last couple of years.
Defensively, there’s even less to replace than there was a year ago. Corner Corey Mayfield Jr. and safety Clifford Chattman, both absolute stars, are gone, but the line returns nearly everyone, the linebacking corps returns two players (ILB Jamal Ligon and OLB Trey Moore) who each had at least 8.5 tackles for loss and 15 run stops, and corner Nicktroy Fortune should be one of the best in the AAC. Coordinator Jess Loepp’s defense created a ton of havoc last season and should have the pieces to do so again. The Roadrunners are obviously moving into a more challenging situation with deep and athletic teams like Tulane, SMU and Memphis standing in the way of early AAC success, but Traylor might also be fielding his best team yet. They’ll give themselves a chance to make some noise.
Both FAU and North Texas have First-Year Magic potential. Who realizes it? On one hand, Seth Littrell’s firing at North Texas felt strange. UNT, a program that has spent two weeks ranked in its entire history and had bowled six times before Littrell’s arrival, firing him after six bowls in seven years and a pair of conference title game appearances? And firing him before hiring a new athletic director (Jared Mosley) days later? How on earth does that make sense?
On the other hand, there was at least some logic involved. Mosley got to walk in the door and make a big-splash hire immediately, and if you’re a believer in stale marriages between coach and athletic department, Littrell’s tenure was a pretty good example. After winning nine games in both 2017 and 2018 and finding his name linked to bigger jobs, Littrell went just 8-14 in 2019-20 and 13-13 in 2021-22. He had brought the program back to respectability, but the thought of a fresh start for all parties evidently seemed appealing.
It was probably an easier call in Boca Raton. After serving as a fantastic coach rehabilitation spot for Lane Kiffin, who won 11 games and conference titles in both 2017 and 2019, FAU went back to the well, bringing in former Oregon and Florida State coach Willie Taggart when Kiffin left for Ole Miss. Taggart’s Owls never found traction; in each of his three seasons, FAU won five games and finished between 87th and 91st in SP+. The offense got better each year, but the defense got worse, and relatively strong recruiting was not reflected on the field.
Both schools held true to character with their new hires. For UNT, that meant hiring a prototypical Texas Guy: Eric Morris, a former Texas Tech receiver with coaching stops at Houston and Texas Tech and, for four years, the head coach at Incarnate Word in San Antonio. For FAU, that meant another rehabilitation hire — in this case, Tom Herman, who won big at Houston but, like so many others, could not maintain momentum at Texas, where he went 32-18 over four seasons.
In both stops as a head coach, Herman engineered first-year improvement. Houston went from 8-5 and 66th in SP+ to 13-1 and 20th in 2015, and while Texas only improved from 5-7 to 7-6, it came with a leap from 56th to 28th in SP+. If FAU were to also improve by 28 or 46 spots in SP+, the Owls will win loads of games this fall.
It’s hard to guarantee such a rise, but Herman does inherit 1,000-yard rusher Larry McCammon, three of last year’s four primary wideouts, three offensive line starters and an incredible 18 of 19 defenders who saw at least 250 snaps. That includes potential stars in tackle Latrell Jean, safety Armani-Eli Adams and corner Romain Mungin. There’s a lot to work with, especially if either former Central Michigan quarterback Daniel Richardson can return to the form that saw him throw for 2,633 yards in 2021 or former four-star Penn State quarterback Michael Johnson Jr. can turn potential into production. (Richardson seemed like the likely starter this spring.) As mentioned above, the schedule is pretty friendly, too.
Morris’ first North Texas team didn’t catch the same scheduling breaks, drawing each of the projected top four teams and playing Tulane and SMU on the road. But they might have the pieces for a fast start on Morris’ favored side of the ball. ULM transfer Chandler Rogers and former blue-chipper Jace Ruder are battling to start at QB for an offense that returns each of last year’s three leading rushers (led by Ayo Adeyi and his 7.2 yards per carry), two receivers (Roderic Burns and Jyaire Shorter) who combined for 1,304 yards at 20.7 per catch and two potential all-conference guards (Gabe Blair and Febechi Nwaiwu). Throw in lanky Texas Tech receiver transfer Trey Cleveland, and it’s a high-ceilinged attack. That’s good because a defense that averaged a 108.3 defensive SP+ ranking over the past four seasons has to replace most of a secondary that was last year’s relative strength. Corner Ridge Texada and pass rusher Mazin Richards will give coordinator Matt Caponi something to build around, but the bar is pretty low on D.
Which outside-the-box hire clicks first, Charlotte’s or UAB’s? If FAU and UNT played to type, UAB and Charlotte most certainly did not. Granted, Charlotte hasn’t had a team long enough to have a type — the 49ers have played only 10 seasons with two coaches: one was a veteran with a defensive background (Brad Lambert), and the other was an extreme youngster and former quarterback (Will Healy). But after such an incredible run of success with Bill Clark from 2014-21, UAB could have stuck with Vincent or another former Clark assistant. Instead, it hired … Trent Dilfer.
In many ways, it was the college version of the Indianapolis Colts hiring Jeff Saturday. Dilfer is a former pro and former ESPN commentator whose only coaching experience to date came at the high school level. His first year of coaching above high school will be with the reins of one of the more proven recent programs in the Group of 5 ranks. His connections to the Elite 11 quarterback camp were evidently also a draw, and hey, if UAB starts signing four-star quarterbacks, it will certainly alleviate some of my skepticism. But everything about this feels like a massive risk.
To either his credit or detriment, Dilfer has leaned into the outsider role. He hired Sione Ta’ufo’ou, his defensive coordinator at Nashville’s Lipscomb Academy, to serve the same role in Birmingham, and for the offensive coordinator role he turned to Alex Mortensen, a longtime Alabama analyst and, yes, Chris Mortensen’s son. Dilfer is certainly confident in what he and the people he trusts can bring to the table.
Beyond confidence, he’ll probably need patience. UAB will take the field without nine of last year’s offensive starters (including quarterback Dylan Hopkins, 1,700-yard rusher DeWayne McBride and all five starting linemen) and without 10 of the 16 defenders who saw 300-plus snaps. The defensive line should still be strong, safety Jaylen Key is a playmaker and both running back Jermaine Brown Jr. and receiver T.J. Jones have major efficiency potential. But so much of what made UAB successful in recent seasons is no longer in Birmingham.
By comparison, Biff Poggi, a former hedge fund manager, was a downright conventional hire. Like Dilfer, Poggi got his first coaching break in the high school ranks at Baltimore’s Gilman School. In the mid-2010s he founded, funded and coached another private school, Saint Frances Academy. His unique background was a clear draw for another unique coach, Jim Harbaugh, and Poggi spent 2021-22 as Michigan‘s associate head coach, overseeing back-to-back Big Ten titles and CFP bids. He’s quite the “CEO coach” and seems to come at the job from an almost Ted Lasso-esque, people-based point of view. There’s nothing yet saying he’s the right guy for the job — we have no idea what will work long-term at Charlotte yet — but watching his progress will be interesting.
Charlotte returns more production than UAB, albeit from a far worse team. The defensive tackles, led by Jalar Holley, are decent, and linebacker Prince Bemah is a sure tackler. But first-year success will be portal-dependent: Poggi has brought in, by my count, 25 transfers thus far. The most notable are probably Michigan edge rushers Eyabi Okie and Julius Welschof, but he’s basically a safety away from being able to start an entire lineup of transfers if he chooses, and he has completely transformed both lines through transfers. It’s hard to know what to expect when you’re dealing with this much change at once, but the raw talent level is better than it was this time last year.
Is JT Daniels the key to Rice’s first winning season in nine years? I’m not sure the old “Slow but steady wins the race” axiom actually applies in college football, but bless Mike Bloomgren for trying it anyway. Inheriting a 1-11 program in 2018, he has, in four full seasons, won two games, then three, then four, then five.
Improvement on paper has been minimal. The defense was exciting in 2019-20 (64th in defensive SP+ in 2019), but the offense was dismal until it took a nice step into the 80s of offensive SP+ … just as the defense collapsed into the 120s. Still, they’re keeping a higher percentage of their games close and winning enough of them to creep toward .500. Rice actually landed a bowl bid at 5-7 last year thanks to their superior Academic Progress Report score (that’s a game they can definitely win), and with six games projected within one score, per SP+, close games will again determine if they can keep this improvement streak going.
The key to that might be an old hand. Daniels will finish his itinerant career in Houston; a former top-100 recruit, Daniels threw for 2,887 yards in parts of two seasons at USC, then 1,953 in parts of two at Georgia. He threw for 2,107 at West Virginia in 2022, and now the tour takes him to Texas, where, if he beats out veteran TJ McMahon and redshirt freshman AJ Padgett, he’ll start for his fourth FBS team.
The QB of choice will have a dynamite receiving duo. Luke McCaffrey, another well-traveled former blue-chip quarterback, has turned into a hell of a possession man out of the slot, while 6-foot-5 wideout Bradley Rozner (19.9 yards per catch, 10 TDs) immediately becomes one of the AAC’s best deep-route runners. If the run game gets more big plays out of senior Juma Otoviano, the offense could have at least top-75 potential.
It’s hard to be as optimistic about the defense. While Bloomgren did manage to bring in six transfers on offense (the portal is tricky with Rice’s academics), he only landed one on defense. Rice attacked the run pretty well last season and should continue to do so with solid size up front and an exciting linebacker trio of Chris Conti, Myron Morrison and Josh Pearcy. But only Pearcy rushes the passer effectively, and the secondary got constantly overwhelmed in 2022. Veteran defensive coordinator Brian Smith knows how to deploy fun, aggressive pieces. He just hasn’t had enough of them the past couple of years, and it’s hard to say that won’t be the case again.
My 10 favorite players
QB Frank Harris, UTSA. If he replicates last season’s numbers, he’ll finish his Roadrunner career with more than 13,000 career passing yards, close to 2,500 career rushing yards and about 140 career touchdowns. Dang.
WR Jyaire Shorter, North Texas. After losing back-to-back seasons to September injuries, Shorter stayed on the field, ran deep route after deep route, and caught 23 of them for 628 yards (27.3 per catch!) and 11 TDs.
WR Luke McCaffrey, Rice. In his first year as a receiver, the former QB caught 58 passes and produced 871 yards from scrimmage. What might he do when he actually knows what he’s doing?
WR LaJohntay Wester, FAU. FAU doesn’t have a huge receiving corps (the three leading pass catchers average 5-11, 176 pounds), but in Wester they’ve got a sure-handed efficiency man in the slot, not to mention a pretty dangerous punt returner.
RG Febechi Nwaiwu, North Texas. The 326-pounder from Coppell, Texas, went from zero-star recruit in 2021 to earning Freshman All-American votes in 2022. He allowed no sacks and produced a blown block rate of just 0.7%, excellent for a guard.
DE Eyabi Okie, Charlotte. The No. 3 recruit in the 2018 class, Okie has bounced from Alabama to UT Martin to Michigan, where he produced eight TFLs and four sacks in under 300 snaps. He could post enormous numbers this fall.
DT Drew Tuazama, UAB. You won’t find too many 285-pounders capable of recording five sacks and making tackles on an almost linebacker-esque 11% of his snaps. Big motor on a big guy.
LB Trey Moore, UTSA. A last-second (and unrated) addition to UTSA’s 2021 recruiting class — he almost went to Army instead — Moore erupted for 19 TFLs, 19 run stops, eight sacks and five pass breakups as a redshirt freshman. Wow!
CB Romain Mungin, FAU. His nickname is “Smoke,” which legally requires him to be an awesome corner. And he is! He allowed just a 19.4 QBR in coverage, with two picks and eight breakups, last season. He threw in a sack and a pair of run stops too.
S Jaylen Key, UAB. In coverage, the 6-2, 215-pounder allowed an 11.6 QBR with three INTs and three breakups. Deployed near the line, he recorded four TFLs and two run stops. One of the most versatile weapons in the AAC.
Anniversaries
In 1968, 55 years ago, Mean Joe Greene played his last game in Denton. The 6-4, 274-pounder was the star of a dominant run defense and might have been the inspiration for the school’s “Mean Green” nickname. (It was either him or the dominant defense itself. Either way, that’s a legacy!) He went to the Pittsburgh Steelers as the fourth pick in the 1969 draft, won the defensive rookie of the year award in 1969, then won defensive player of the year awards in 1972 and 1974 (and, of course, four Super Bowls) and starred in one of the most famous sports commercials ever during a Hall-of-Fame career.
In 2003, 20 years ago, FAU reached the FCS semifinals in its third season of existence. Howard Schnellenberger had already produced miracles at both Miami (an out-of-nowhere 1983 national title) and Louisville (an out-of-nowhere top-15 finish) when he arrived in Boca Raton for the final act of his career. He didn’t waste time doing something special there, either. FAU played its first football game in 2001, went just 2-9 in 2002 and began 2003 with losses to UCF (forgivable) and Division II’s Valdosta State (less so). But the Owls caught fire from there, winning their final nine regular season games to qualify for the FCS playoffs, then winning at both Bethune-Cookman (32-24) and Northern Arizona (48-25) to reach the semifinals.
FAU didn’t have an answer for No. 6 Colgate’s ball control and loss, 36-24, but it was yet another out-of-nowhere miracle for Schnellenberger. Then he pulled off another: The Owls moved to FBS in 2005 and won the Sun Belt just two years later. That Schnellenberger isn’t in the College Football Hall of Fame is absolutely appalling.
In 2008, 15 years ago, Texas’ Board of Regents approved UTSA football. It’s always confusing to come across a Division I school in Texas that doesn’t play football — looking at you, UT-Arlington — but UTSA righted its own wrong in the late-2000s. First the students voted to approve of an increase in athletics fees, then the Regents did their part. In February 2009, the school hired former Miami national champion Larry Coker, and in 2011 the Roadrunners played their first game, a 31-3 win over Division II’s Northeastern State in front of 56,000 in the Alamodome. They were in FBS by 2013 and in a bowl by 2016. Now they’re in the G5’s top conference.
In 2013, 10 years ago, Rice won Conference USA out of (relative) nowhere. After a 10-win explosion in 2008, it seemed like David Bailiff was running out of time at Rice. His Owls went just 10-26 from 2009-11 and began the 2012 season 2-6. But suddenly, things clicked. They won four straight games to finish bowl-eligible and blew out Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl, and the momentum spilled to 2013, where they lost to Texas A&M and Houston early, but went 7-1 in C-USA play and walloped Marshall, 41-24, to win their first outright conference title in 56 years.
Bailiff was able to maintain enough momentum for an 8-5 season and another bowl win in 2014, but things quickly fell apart from there.
Also in 2013, Charlotte played its first football game in 65 years. Lots of startups in this batch of teams! After shuttering its football program following an 0-5 season in 1948, Charlotte decided in 2008 to bring it back. The school hired Wake Forest defensive coordinator Brad Lambert in 2011 and began life as an FCS independent in 2013. (They began 2-0 with blowouts of Campbell and Chowan but went just 3-6 from there.) Two years later, they were Conference USA members, and now, despite just one winning season, they’re making another jump.
In 2018, five years ago, UAB won its first conference title. Amid a sea of startups, UAB is a restart. The Blazers reached just one bowl in their first 24 seasons but showed signs of life under Bill Clark in 2014. Right after reaching bowl eligibility, however, the school announced it was discontinuing the program. The outcry was significant enough that, just months later, the decision was reversed. Somehow Clark remained in Birmingham and rebuilt his roster from scratch, and the Blazers went 8-5 in 2017, their first season back.
They just kept right on winning, going 11-3 with a C-USA title in 2018, 9-5 in 2019 and 6-3 with a second title in 2020. In 2021, they opened Protective Stadium in downtown Birmingham. This went from one of the worst stories of the last decade to one of the best.