The first month of the NHL season is when narratives begin to form about players and teams. Some of them stick, some of them are fleeting and some of them are just Connor McDavid being Connor McDavid.
Welcome to the NHL Awards Watch for November. We’ve polled a selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders.
As you’ll see, the MVP race already has some leaders, the Norris Trophy has a breakout favorite and basically every first-year player is in the mix for rookie of the year.
Bear in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina. Also keep in mind the unofficial “you gotta be in it to win it” protocol for the Hart and the Jack Adams.
All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey, and are as of the games of Oct. 31.
Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
Leader: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (18 points)
In the hunt: David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins (17 points)
Longer shot: Jesper Bratt, New Jersey Devils (15 points)
Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy (leading goal scorer)
Leader: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (nine goals)
In the hunt: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning (seven goals)
Longer shot: Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina Hurricanes (eight goals)
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Leader: Connor McDavid, C, Edmonton Oilers
Finalists: David Pastrnak, RW, Boston Bruins; Jack Eichel, C, Vegas Golden Knights
One of our voters sums up McDavid’s MVP candidacy thusly: “Because duh …”
McDavid had 18 points though nine games, including an NHL-best nine goals. To put his offensive greatness in perspective: That’s actually one point down from his output in the first nine games of last season. The Oilers star has three four-point games to his credit already, which include two hat tricks. He’s seeking his third Hart Trophy, after finishing second for the award last season to Auston Matthews and his 60-goal effort.
As usual, the X factor in any McDavid Hart Trophy discussion is Leon Draisaitl, who is right there with him at 16 points in nine games. The two play the majority of their minutes apart at five-on-five, but McDavid has played only 28 seconds on the power play without Draisaitl on the ice. Both amassed eight power-play points in nine games.
McDavid placed first on just over 50% of our voters’ ballots. The strong runner-up was Pastrnak, the only other player selected first on multiple ballots.
Pastrnak started the season with 17 points in nine games as Boston sprinted out to an 8-1-0 record, defying expectations that the Bruins might struggle without injured stars Charlie McAvoy and Brad Marchand. There are many factors behind Boston’s fast start, but the offensive dominance of Pasta is one of them.
“There has to be some explanation besides [goalie] Linus Ullmark for Boston’s start,” one voter said.
Everyone has their own criteria for MVP-worthiness — yours truly offers the “you gotta be in it to win it” playoff caveat each season — and one voter voiced a concern about Pastrnak’s usage. Draisaitl kills penalties. McDavid averages over 30 seconds of short-handed ice time per game this season, although he averaged only 12 seconds per game on the PK last season. In his last 81 games, Pastrnak has averaged two seconds of shorthanded time per game.
“I hate picking guys who don’t play both special teams, but Boston was never supposed to be that good this year,” another voter said.
The only other player to get a first-place vote was Eichel, who opened the season with 10 points in 10 games. That included a game-winning goal against the Winnipeg Jets in overtime recently. His underlying numbers have been strong, and he has helped get the Knights out of the gate in a critical rebound year for the franchise.
Other MVP candidates will emerge as the season continues — Devils fans are already starting the drumbeat for Jesper Bratt — but for now, it’s a two-player race.
Norris Trophy (top defenseman)
Leader: Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
Finalists: Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche; Erik Karlsson, San Jose Sharks
Raise your hand if you had Rasmus Dahlin earning 77% of the Norris Trophy vote after the first month of the season.
I’ll wait …
Dahlin has been a revelation this season, his fifth in the NHL. It’s not just his 12 points in nine games (although that scoring pace for a player who has never even approached it before is eye-opening). It’s the totality of Dahlin’s game that really makes him stand out so far. With Dahlin on the ice, the Sabres are getting 54.2% of the shot attempts and 71.4% of the goals at five-on-five per 60 minutes.
He’s averaging 25:23 per game in ice time and has continued to thrive after defense partner Mattias Samuelsson went out with an injury.
“We all know the Norris becomes a narrative award, and Dahlin — deservedly — is dominating the early discussion,” one voter said. “As long as he doesn’t fall off a cliff the rest of the season, he’ll remain in the discussion.”
A Buffalo Sabre, starting strong and then falling off a cliff? Unprecedented, we say!
Makar was the only other defenseman to appear on multiple ballots. Last season’s Norris winner has eight points in his first nine games, all of them assists. He’s averaging 26:23 per game but isn’t quite having the impact at even strength that we’ve come to expect from Makar. But as one voter put it, “He’s Cale Makar, whether he’s yet to score a goal yet or not.”
There was only one believer in the Erik Karlsson revival currently underway in San Jose. The 32-year-old Sharks defenseman had 11 points in his first 11 games, including six goals. ‘Twas a time when a point-per-game pace was the norm for Karlsson, back when he was a Norris finalist four times and won the award twice.
Does he have another campaign like that in him? Considering his past injury issues, let’s just cross our fingers that he plays more than 50 games.
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
Leader: Shane Pinto, Ottawa Senators
Finalists: Matty Beniers, Seattle Kraken; Jake Sanderson, Ottawa Senators
I’ll never forget the 2005-06 Calder Trophy race between Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin. Crosby was the anointed one before the season. Ovechkin made his statement in the opening month, winning rookie of the month over Sid. He’d go on to take rookie of the year honors with 124 first-place votes to Crosby’s four.
Neither Beniers nor Owen Power of the Sabres had Crosby-level hype entering this season, but it wasn’t outlandish to think that one of these Wolverines could be the NHL’s best rookie early on. Instead, it was Pinto who sped out to win rookie of the month for October, and the majority of the first-place votes of our panelists.
Pinto, 21, led all rookies with six goals (and seven points) in eight games and topped the entire NHL with a 42.9% shooting percentage. He had seven points in total. Pinto played 17 games with the Senators over the last two seasons, keeping him Calder-eligible. He had eight points in those 17 games. He’s ready to level up.
“Josh Norris‘ absence will give him the chance to shine even more,” one voter said, in reference to the injured Ottawa center.
Another voter had jokes: “He’s much better than the Ford version in the 1980s.”
Beniers had eight points in 10 games to start the season with Seattle, playing over three minutes more per game (17:40) than Pinto (14:28). The Kraken have him lined up with veterans Jaden Schwartz and Jordan Eberle.
Ottawa defenseman Jake Sanderson was the clear third choice. He has four points in his first eight games, skating 18:57 per game. That’s a bit of a surprise given that other defensemen have more points (Minnesota’s Calen Addison has seven) and have logged more ice time (Buffalo’s Power, 22:20 per game). But Sanderson, 20, is a good one.
The only other players to receive a first-place Calder vote were Vegas goalie Logan Thompson, who posted a .948 save percentage in his first six games, and Winnipeg winger Cole Perfetti, who had six points in his first nine games with the Jets this season.
As you can see, it’s still a very wide-open field. As one voter admitted, “It feels really early to make any kind of call here.”
Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)
Note: General managers vote for this award.
Leader: Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars
Finalists: Carter Hart, Philadelphia Flyers; Logan Thompson, Vegas Golden Knights
Oettinger picked up where he left off in last season’s Stanley Cup Playoffs, when this Star’s star was born in their first-round loss to the Calgary Flames. He’s 5-1-0 with a .952 save percentage this season. He has a whopping 10.1 goals saved above expected in that span.
An air-tight case for Vezina leader, right? Well, there is the matter of his nagging lower-body injury that’s had him out of the lineup.
“Even though he’s hurt and might miss some time,” one voter said.
“If he recovers well,” was another’s caveat.
But even with that injury concern, the Otter was named first on the most voter ballots.
Coming in second was Thompson, the rookie goalie for the Golden Knights. His .943 save percentage and 1.69 goals-against average in six games, including two shutouts, rewarded the faith management put in him to replace the injured Robin Lehner. Well, that and they were right up against the salary cap.
Hart and New York Islanders goalie Ilya Sorokin were the other netminders to receive first-place votes. We’ll move Hart slightly ahead here for his numbers through the first month (5-0-1 record, .938 save percentage, 2.31 GAA) and the undeniable redemption arc at play: The Flyers’ franchise goalie finding his game again under the curmudgeonly John Tortorella. But like Hart to the Flyers, Sorokin has been one of the NHL’s top goalies and the Islanders’ MVP.
Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)
Leader: Patrice Bergeron, Boston Bruins
Finalists: Nico Hischier, New Jersey Devils; Mark Stone, Vegas Golden Knights
The obvious answer can still be the right answer. Bergeron won his NHL-record fifth Selke Trophy last season and just over 50% of the voters have him leading the field again. The Bruins captain continues to master the faceoff circle (63.6%) and control play at five-on-five, to the tune of 1.2 goals against per 60 minutes when he’s on the ice.
As one voter said: “As always, it comes down to him or Mark Stone. Their goals for percentage numbers are insane. But when in doubt, the center gets the tie break.”
Stone has been a Selke finalist twice but hasn’t been able to convince enough voters to get over their inherent center bias to give the award to a winger for the first time since Jere Lehtinen of the Dallas Stars in 2002-03. Stone remains one the NHL’s best takeaway artists and opponents were averaging 0.37 goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five against Stone in 11 games.
As the Devils flirt with relevance for the first time in years, Hischier is starting to get his Selke spotlight. The 23-year-old is winning over 63% of his faceoffs and opponents are averaging 1.54 expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five when the Switzerland native is on the ice.
Hischier was the only other players to receive multiple first-place votes. Other players that made our panelists’ Selke ballots were Jordan Staal of the Carolina Hurricanes, Phillip Danault of the Los Angeles Kings and Roope Hintz of the Dallas Stars.
Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)
This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league’s on-ice officials or by the National Hockey League Players’ Association.
Last season, Kyle Connor of the Winnipeg Jets ruined our chances of having back-to-back defensemen win this award. Our hope, once again, is that another defenseman wins the Byng … or, even better, a goalie.
Jack Adams Award (best coach)
Note: The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes on this award.
Leader: Jim Montgomery, Boston Bruins
Finalists: Bruce Cassidy, Vegas Golden Knights; Lindy Ruff, New Jersey Devils
The Bruins were an October juggernaut despite missing Brad Marchand (for all but one game) and Charlie McAvoy, and the majority of our voters gave Montgomery the credit for that. While known as a defensive coach, Monty had the Bruins’ offense cranked up to 4.22 goals per game for first in the NHL. Before that wild game at Pittsburgh on Tuesday, Boston was also second in the NHL defensively. Montgomery’s road back to a head coaching job after being fired in Dallas is well-documented and a compelling part of his candidacy.
Also compelling: That Cassidy, the coach Montgomery replaced in Boston, went to Vegas and has the Golden Knights playing outstanding hockey. Whatever underlying tensions existed behind the scenes, Cassidy has given the team structure, drive and focus. Their defensive play has been solid, too, helping to support goaltending that many considered the Knights’ potential failing this season.
“He’s making a possible dysfunctional situation work,” one voter said.
What a wild ride for Ruff: From the “Fire Lindy!” chants that started the season to the Devils being the analytic darlings of the league and getting results in the standings. Amazing what some half-decent goaltending can do for a maligned coach.
The other coach that received multiple votes was Buffalo bench boss Don Granato, and if the Sabres keep rolling he’ll be a popular candidate here.
Tortorella received a vote as did Chicago Blackhawks coach Luke Richardson.
As one voter said: “When you think of the talent the Blackhawks lost, and how much better they look, it’s hard not to give Richardson much of the credit. You have to wonder how [GM] Kyle Davidson really feels. It looks like he got the right coach. And it’s screwing up all his plans.”