There are plenty of obvious hazards to starting a full offseason preview series in February. Players get hurt, players transfer, things change. But at least coaching changes usually don’t play a role.
Usually.
When I wrote the MAC East preview last March, Lance Leipold’s Buffalo Bulls and Frank Solich’s Ohio Bobcats appeared to be the most proven entities. The Bulls were 24-10 over the previous three seasons, and while the Bobcats barely had a chance to play the year before (they went 2-1 in 2020), they had finished over .500 for five straight seasons and returned most of a young core.
In April, however, Leipold moved to Kansas. He ended up taking quite a few players with him. And in July, the 76-year-old Solich retired. Maurice Linguist (Buffalo) and Tim Albin (Ohio) took over those teams and went a combined 7-17, sending Kent State and Miami (Ohio) to the front of the MAC East race.
Assuming no further coaching changes this time around, it appears Miami starts this season atop the pile with four other rivals jockeying for second. Let’s very tentatively preview the eastern half of the home of MACtion.
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 131 FBS teams. The previews will include 2021 breakdowns, 2022 previews and burning questions for each team.
Earlier previews: MWC West | MWC Mountain | AAC (Nos. 6-11) | AAC (Nos. 1-5)
2021 recap
In a division with minimal separation in terms of recruiting rankings or budgets, winning the title usually comes down to winning the close games. After Kent State took its lumps in a customarily brutal nonconference slate (losing to Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland by a combined 108-33), Sean Lewis’ Golden Flashes went 4-0 in one-score finishes in MAC play, stopping a 2-point conversion attempt in overtime to beat Miami, 48-47, to win the East. Kent State let things slip away from there, however, losing 41-23 to Northern Illinois in the MAC championship game, then losing a Famous Idaho Potato Bowl track meet to Wyoming.
The best East team on paper, Miami went 1-3 in one-score finishes and came up just short. Chuck Martin has built a sturdy, physically impressive program, but close games have been a problem for him over eight seasons; his RedHawks are just 14-24 in one-score finishes, going 5-0 during 2019’s division title run but otherwise winning just 27% of their close ones.
That’s probably something to keep in mind when you see the RedHawks projected with the early division advantage. Winning the East will still require winning some tight games.
Outside of Miami and Kent, everyone else disappointed. Buffalo and Ohio struggled in the aftermath of their unexpected coaching changes, Bowling Green showed life in a shocking upset of Minnesota but lost six of eight from there, and the Tom Arth era at Akron puttered out quietly — he was fired after a 2-7 start and left town with just a 3-24 record.
2022 projections
Miami’s defense is undergoing a pretty steep overhaul, but an experienced offense appears to give the RedHawks the early edge. They are projected favorites of at least 10 points in four of eight MAC games, and they’ve got a 50-50 chance against Northwestern on Sept. 24. The four projected close games will determine whether they let someone else enter the race.
Who might that someone be? It’s hard to tell. Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State and Ohio are all projected to win between 3.7 and 4.0 conference games on average. SP+ gives Kent no built-in defending-champion advantages, primarily because winning that many tight games is a difficult recipe to replicate. Either way, the Golden Flashes will need another good conference performance to secure a bowl bid — they face Georgia, Oklahoma and Washington in yet another brutal nonconference run.
Burning questions
New faces, same Kent State offense? Dino Babers’ former offensive co-coordinator at both Bowling Green and Syracuse, Sean Lewis was just 31 when he took over at Kent State in 2018. But his Golden Flashes have become one of the East Division’s most proven entities since, going 14-6 in the MAC since 2019. His #FlashFAST offense has ranked in the offensive SP+ top 50 for two straight seasons, allowing Kent to land some shots and overcome a defense that has yet to rank higher than 118th.
The defense will have plenty of experience in 2022 but bears an obvious burden of proof. Big nose tackle CJ West and corner Montre Miller are keepers, but if Kent wins the East again this fall, it will be because the offense remained prolific despite turnover. Longtime quarterback Dustin Crum is gone, as are two of his top three receivers and two all-conference linemen.
Marquez Cooper and Xavier Williams both return after bringing some newfound pop to the run game (combined: 2,017 rushing yards, 5.5 per carry), and junior Dante Cephas is one of the better deep threats in the MAC. But presumptive starter Collin Schlee has big shoes to fill at quarterback, and the line has to produce a couple of new standouts. I like the Flashes more than SP+ does, and I’d easily consider them the No. 2 favorite in the division, but the turnover, the dreadful defense and last year’s unsustainable close-game record certainly give reason for pause.
Can a rebuilt Miami defense hold up? The RedHawks have finished in the SP+ top 80 in three of the past five seasons — which positions them well in a Solich- and Leipold-free East — and after ranking 64th in offensive SP+, their highest such ranking since 2005, they return quarterback Brett Gabbert and eight other starters, including big-play receiver Mac Hippenhammer and virtually everyone from an explosive if inconsistent running back corps. Their offensive line is enormous (average size of the seven returnees who saw the field in 2021: 6-foot-6, 317 pounds) and far more experienced than last year’s. No. 1 receiver Jack Sorenson is gone, but it’s possible that Indiana transfer Miles Marshall offers a like-for-like replacement.
If the dreadful close-game performances weren’t enough to scare you off of the RedHawks, though, the defense might. Miami ranked 67th in defensive SP+ last fall, its sixth top-80 performance in seven years, but Martin and coordinator Bill Brechin must replace four of six primary linemen, linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. and last year’s top four defensive backs, including NFL-bound corner Mike Brown and safety Sterling Weatherford. The transfer portal was particularly mean, taking away Pace (Cincinnati) and explosive pass-rushers Kameron Butler (Virginia) and Lonnie Phelps (Kansas).
Martin does a great job of using redshirts and development to his advantage and brings in a few transfers of his own. But last year’s defense set the bar particularly high, and most of the reasons for that high bar are gone. The offense might have to carry some extra weight this fall if Miami is to live up to its favorite status.
Who’s more likely to bounce back from a first-year collapse? Succeeding a legend of sorts is always difficult, and both Tim Albin and Maurice Linguist had to do just that. Albin was Ohio’s offensive coordinator for each of Frank Solich’s 16 seasons in charge and obviously knew the program as well as anyone, but just as Solich found potholes in succeeding Tom Osborne at Nebraska, Albin found the same in Athens. The Bobcats still ran the ball well thanks to running backs De’Montre Tuggle and O’Shaan Allison and quarterbacks Kurtis Rourke and Armani Rogers, but the passing game struggled, and the defense slipped from 92nd to 114th in defensive SP+. (Special teams also stunk.) Maybe this would have happened even with Solich in charge, but either way, Albin has to find some answers.
Rourke and Allison are back to lead the offense, along with three offensive line starters and a potentially exciting deep threat in Rice transfer August Pitre III (31 catches, 15.9 yards per catch in 2021). But on defense, Ohio has to hope that experience leads to a rebound; nine starters return, most of them seniors, but outside of linebackers Cannon Blauser and Bryce Houston and maybe sophomore corner Roman Parodie, there aren’t many known play-makers here.
At first glance, it appears Buffalo might be better positioned for a rebound. For one thing, Linguist might actually be familiar with the roster now. When Leipold left, Linguist was preparing for his first season as Michigan’s defensive co-coordinator; he hadn’t coached at Buffalo since 2013, and he had to deal with a pretty big wave of transfers. Plus, his offense was held back a bit by injuries to quarterback Kyle Vantrease and running back Kevin Marks. Dylan McDuffie took over as the featured back, and Matt Myers got his feet wet at quarterback before Vantrease transferred to Georgia Southern. Between McDuffie, receiver Quian Williams and a couple of intriguing power-conference transfers (Louisville’s Justin Marshall and Arizona’s Boobie Curry), it appears the skill corps has quite a bit of upside.
Defensively … we’ll see. Big Daymond Williams is one of the MAC’s better pass-rushers, and linebacker James Patterson returns for what feels like his 17th season at UB, but the secondary needed some serious remodeling, and Linguist hit the transfer portal hard, bringing in corners Elijah Blades (Florida) and Caleb Offord (Notre Dame) and safeties Jahmin Muse (Boston College) and Chris Edmonds (Samford). Buffalo should look the part physically, and if the Bulls are defensively competent, they could challenge in the East. That’s a pretty big “if.”
Does experience mean a Bowling Green breakthrough? BGSU’s 14-10 win over Minnesota was a classic in the upset oeuvre. The Falcons gained just 192 total yards (3.1 per play) and went 2-for-14 on third downs, but they forced three turnovers, made a couple of red zone stops and scored on a short field after a turnover on downs. It was not a portend of future success for Scot Loeffler’s squad, but if nothing else it was a sign of life, particularly on defense. Bowling Green had gone just 3-14 in Loeffler’s first two seasons, but they jumped to 96th in defensive SP+ and went 4-8, their best performance in five years.
Now they lead the nation in returning production. Ten starters return on a defense that struggled against the run but played genuinely well against the pass, and 10 starters return on offense as well. Granted, it was an offense that ranked 125th in offensive SP+, but sophomore running backs Nick Mosley and Terion Stewart have some pop, at least, as does sophomore receiver Tyrone Broden Jr.
Bowling Green hasn’t ranked better than 90th in SP+ since 2015, Dino Babers’ last year as head coach, and Loeffler is still just 7-22 overall. There’s nothing saying the offense will ever be viable enough under Loeffler to lead a charge back to .500. But coordinator Eric Lewis’ defense should be one of the best in the MAC, boasting genuine play-makers at each level, from end Karl Brooks to linebacker Darren Anders to do-it-all safety Jordan Anderson. Thanks to the D alone, the Falcons are at least slight projected favorites in six games. Win enough of the close ones, and a bowl is within reach.
How long until we see a Joe Moorhead offense at Akron? Arth was a Division III quarterback with head coaching experience only in D3 and FCS when he came to Akron, and while his hire was creative, it obviously didn’t work out. So in the name of hiring the opposite of your ex, Akron went with a veteran: former Fordham and Mississippi State head coach Joe Moorhead.
Moorhead had his day as one of the sport’s great innovators during the RPO explosion of the mid-2010s. He helped to pilot Penn State to the Big Ten title in 2016, and after his brief stint at MSU he became offensive coordinator at Oregon, where his two Ducks offenses ranked 17th and 22nd in offensive SP+.
Moorhead leaned pretty heavily on the run at Oregon, which made sense considering that (a) former boss Mario Cristobal is a pretty conservative guy, and (b) the Ducks were much better at running than passing. It’s hard to tell what his first Akron offense might be better at in 2022, however. The run game will lean heavily on sophomores, both in the backfield (running backs Jonzell Norrils and Blake Hester flashed explosiveness but got stuffed behind the line a lot) and up front where, incredibly, all of the eight returnees who saw the field in 2021 are listed as sophs.
The passing game, meanwhile, gets an overhaul. Quarterback Zach Gibson left for Georgia Tech, leaving either run-heavy junior DJ Irons or a youngster like incoming freshman Dijon Jennings to man the position. The top two receivers are gone too, leaving sophomore tight end Tristian Brank as the most experienced option. Moorhead used the transfer portal to bring in high-ceiling receivers Shocky Jacques-Louis (Pitt) and Alex Adams (LSU), but we’ll see if they have a capable QB.
Veteran defensive coordinator Tim Tibesar inherits a vastly experienced unit … but it’s an experienced unit that ranked 128th in defensive SP+ last season. Corner Charles Amankwaa is a keeper, at least.
My 10 favorite players
QB Brett Gabbert, Miami. Gabbert combines vertical passing (11.7 air yards per pass) and safe decision-making (six interceptions) in a particularly unique way, and he’s got a fun receiving corps at his disposal.
QB Kurtis Rourke, Ohio. Barring injury, this will be the sixth straight year a Rourke leads Ohio in passing, and like older brother Nathan, Kurtis is both an efficient runner and conservative (sometimes too much so) passer.
RB Dylan McDuffie, Buffalo. The Bulls leaned heavily on the 207-pounder late in the year — last six games: 24.3 carries per game for 116.7 yards — and it mostly paid off. A little more production from the Buffalo passing game would make him even more dangerous.
WR Dante Cephas, Kent State. The Kent State offense is based on runs and quick horizontal passes, but in Cephas, the Flashes have a major deep threat out wide. He topped 90 yards in eight of his last 11 games last season.
LG Adam Gregoire, Kent State. Kent’s newfound run success transformed the offense, and with his 0.3% blown block rate, the 332-pound Gregoire was as instrumental in that as the talented backs running behind him.
DE Karl Brooks, Bowling Green. A defensive end recording 6.5 sacks among 18 tackles for loss is outstanding but in no way unheard of. A 295-pound end doing such a thing is unique.
LB James Patterson, Buffalo. The senior has 29 career tackles for loss, and while he’s always been a quality run defender (he had 19 run stuffs last season), he added high-caliber blitzing to the repertoire late in 2021.
LB Cannon Blauser, Ohio. In his first year as a starter, Blauser formed quite the partnership with Bryce Houston — the two combined for 207 tackles, 26 TFLs and 35 run stuffs. Blauser also recorded a 23% pressure rate when he blitzed.
CB Davon Ferguson, Bowling Green. A creative defensive coordinator’s dream, Ferguson combined four pass breakups with nine TFLs and two sacks before he was lost to injury eight games in. In the first three games without him, BGSU allowed 42 points per game.
CB Charles Amankwaa, Akron. The Zips don’t have much in the way of proven commodities, but Amankwaa’s awfully good. He picked off three passes, broke up 10 more and made six TFLs, allowing just a 51.2 QBR in coverage, best on the team.
Anniversaries
In 1992, 30 years ago, Akron played its first season in the MAC. Gerry Faust’s Zips started well, beating Toledo and Cincinnati on the way to a 7-3-1 finish. Standing out long term has proven awfully difficult, though: They have finished with a winning record just six times since, with three bowls (one win), two division titles and a single MAC title in 2005. This is a hard job, but Moorhead brings experience and identity to the table, and early recruiting wins in the portal suggest he could upgrade the talent level quite a bit.
In 2002, 20 years ago, Urban Meyer’s second Bowling Green team went 9-3. For a while, it looked like the Falcons might do even better. Meyer found an incredible spread-offense muse in quarterback Josh Harris (2,425 passing yards, 788 rushing and receiving yards, 41 total touchdowns), and BGSU stomped Missouri and Kansas by a combined 90-44 on the way to an 8-0 start. The offense sputtered down the stretch, however, and the Falcons lost three of four before losing Meyer to Utah. They would make up for lost time the next year under Gregg Brandon, however, fully unlocking Harris’ potential (3,813 passing yards, 830 rushing yards), going 11-3 and finishing ranked for the first time.
Also in 2002: Ben Roethlisberger broke out. The Miami quarterback threw for 3,238 yards and 22 touchdowns as the RedHawks beat North Carolina, nearly topped Orange Bowl-bound Iowa and averaged 37 points per game in MAC play. Miami went 7-6, then leaped to 13-1 the next year as Roethlisberger exploded for 4,486 yards and turned himself into a first-round draft pick.
In 2012, 10 years ago, Kent State nearly made the Orange Bowl. The Golden Flashes had enjoyed only one winning record in 25 years before starting with 11 wins in their first 12 games. Thunder-and-lightning backs Trayion Durham and Dri Archer combined for 3,487 rushing and receiving yards and 34 touchdowns, and future Pittsburgh Steelers Pro-Bowler Roosevelt Nix powered an active defense.
Kent faced Northern Illinois in its first MAC championship game appearance, with the winner all but certain of securing a BCS bowl bid as the top-ranked mid-major. The Flashes scored 21 fourth-quarter points to force overtime, but NIU prevailed in the second OT possession, securing an Orange Bowl spot against Florida State. KSU lost head coach Darrell Hazell to Purdue and got relegated to the GoDaddy.com Bowl, the school’s first bowl in 40 years.
Also in 2012: Khalil Mack improved upon already-amazing stats. One of the MAC’s most legendary defenders, Mack established career highs in both TFLs (21) and sacks (eight) as a Buffalo junior that fall before somehow one-upping himself the next season. He finished his career with video game numbers: 327 tackles, 75 TFLs, 28.5 sacks, 4 interceptions, 21 breakups, 16 forced fumbles and a spot in the top five of the 2014 NFL draft. He was the MAC’s defensive player of the year in 2013 … and the NFL’s three seasons later.
In 2017, five years ago, Ohio’s offense found a new gear. Frank Solich’s Bobcats had fallen into an offensive rut, averaging an offensive SP+ ranking of 101.8 over the previous five seasons. But the combination of quarterback Nathan Rourke and running backs A.J. Ouellette and Dorian Brown sparked a revival. The trio rushed for a combined 2,675 yards and 39 touchdowns as Ohio leaped to 44th in offensive SP+ and won nine games for the first time in five years. The breakthrough continued from there: The Bobcats were 16th in 2018 and 19th in 2019, and Rourke finished a three-year starting stint with 7,457 passing yards and 2,634 rushing yards.