You know, for all the grumbling throughout the MLB offseason, we ended up with a fascinating list of transactions. We saw two of the best all-around players in the game traded. That’s pretty fun, at least for Mets and Cardinals fans. We watched the reigning National League Cy Young winner, the NL Cy Young runner-up, and a recent American League Cy Young winner all change teams. That doesn’t happen every offseason. And in Chicago alone, we saw the White Sox continue to go big and the Cubs punt on third down.
Yes, we have too many teams that didn’t do anything — but we also have the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres setting the stage for an epic duel in 2021.
“The Padres, they started quick,” said new San Diego starter Blake Snell, the 2018 AL CY Young winner who came over in a trade with the Rays. “We threw some haymakers quick. And then the Dodgers, they followed with some big haymakers as well. It’s exciting. It’s what baseball should be about — make the best team you can possibly make and doing everything you can to win, and I feel like both the teams are doing so.”
After the Padres acquired Snell and then Yu Darvish from the Cubs, among a list of major offseason deals, the Dodgers eventually countered when they signed 2020 Cy Young winner Trevor Bauer and then re-signed third baseman Justin Turner.
It’s on. “It’s exciting what they’re doing,” Turner said of the Padres. “I think it’s good for the game of baseball. They’re being aggressive and going for it and it’s good to see teams doing that. The way I look at it now that I’m back with the Dodgers is we’re getting 19 World Series games this year.”
So the Padres and Dodgers top the list of my favorite offseasons. There is also an easy call for my least favorite offseason.
Five favorite offseasons
1. San Diego Padres
Major moves: Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, Mark Melancon, Keone Kela, Ha-seong Kim, Victor Caratini, re-signed Jurickson Profar, signed Fernando Tatis Jr. to a 14-year, $340 million extension
It’s hard to top acquiring two top-of-the-rotation starters in Darvish and Snell, but the Padres outdid themselves when they agreed to the longest contract in MLB history for the 22-year-old Tatis. Two impressive aspects to this offseason haul: (1) AJ Preller acquired Darvish, Snell and the underrated Musgrove while giving up just one of the team’s elite prospects in pitcher Luis Patino and holding on to pitcher MacKenzie Gore, shortstop CJ Abrams and catcher Luis Campusano; (2) Darvish and Snell are both signed through 2023, so this isn’t just a one-and-done scenario. The Padres are in this for the long haul.
Musgrove and Kim could be two of the sleeper moves of the offseason. Musgrove has a 3.69 FIP the past three seasons for some awful Pirates teams, with a 312-to-78 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 325 innings, including a strikeout rate that spiked to 33.1% in 2020. There could be some sneaky upside there. Kim is 25 and has been a star in Korea since he was 19. He has power, he can run and I look for him to win the starting job at second base over Jake Cronenworth.
Preller then added bullpen depth right as spring training started with the Melancon and Kela signings (and don’t sleep on Austin Adams, acquired last season from Seattle and the owner of a devastating wipeout slider). I know we sometimes overreact to the offseason “winner,” and Preller himself can point to his first offseason as Padres GM when he also brought in a list of a household names and the team actually won fewer games. I think this one will work out much better.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
Major moves: Trevor Bauer, Corey Knebel, Sheldon Neuse, re-signed Justin Turner, re-signed Blake Treinen
No, the list of moves isn’t as long as San Diego’s, and the Dodgers lost some valuable depth in Joc Pederson and Enrique Hernandez, but adding Bauer to what was already the deepest rotation in the majors is one of the great counteroffensives in offseason history. Yes, the contract is controversial — Bauer would make $85 million over two seasons if he opts out after 2022 — and could create major ripple effects on baseball economics for the future (shorter-term deals for stars with a much higher annual average value), but the Dodgers signed a pitcher who has been outstanding two of the past three seasons.
With teams so concerned about pitcher workloads for 2021 coming off the shortened season, the Dodgers can now play it safe with the likes of Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler and Co. They know Bauer, with his rubber arm and durability, is the one starter they can push to 200 innings if desired. Remember, they also have David Price returning after he sat out 2020.
Bringing back Turner wasn’t a surprise, but given that he didn’t sign until last week, there had been some lingering thought he might go elsewhere. Now the Dodgers retain a player who is still productive (.307/.400/.460 in 2020) and one of the team leaders.
Major moves: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, James McCann, Taijuan Walker, Trevor May, Kevin Pillar, Jonathan Villar, Joey Lucchesi, Aaron Loup, re-signed Marcus Stroman
If you had told Mets fans at the start of the offseason that they would fail to sign Bauer, George Springer, J.T. Realmuto or DJ LeMahieu, they would have thought the whole Steve Cohen ownership was some hallucinogenic dream and they woke up to find out the Wilpons still owned the team. But it was still a productive offseason, starting with landing a huge star in Lindor, plus Carrasco, in a trade that the best player they gave up was Andres Gimenez.
Yes, Springer would have been a perfect fit in center field and Realmuto a perfect fit behind the plate, but the Mets have added depth, an issue that hurt them in recent seasons. On paper, they are the most improved team from 2020 with the projection systems seeing them as a 90- to 94-win team that rates right up there with the Braves as favorites in the NL East.
Major moves: Lance Lynn, Liam Hendriks, Adam Eaton, re-signed Carlos Rodon
I love the Hendriks signing — there are few sure-thing closers going right now, and he has been the best over the past two seasons — and the Lynn trade, although I’m lukewarm on Eaton. Lynn pitched 208 innings in 2019 and his 84 innings led the majors in 2020 (he finished with a 3.32 ERA for the Rangers and was at 2.53 until he allowed 10 runs in his final start). Having that kind of workhorse alongside Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel gives the White Sox a strong 1-2-3 in the rotation. Eaton is 32 and hit just .232/.285/.384 for the Nationals and his defense is no longer a plus, but he grinds at-bats, something the younger White Sox hitters can learn from him. I’m just not sure how much he has left in the tank.
My one criticism is that they should have signed one more starter as the rotation thins out after that top three. Michael Kopech hasn’t pitched since 2018, so he’s a wild card and might need some time in Triple-A to get ready. Even if he is ready, he’ll likely be on a low innings count anyway. Dylan Cease had a 4.01 ERA, but a 6.36 FIP, so he’s a candidate for major regression. Rodon has to show he’s healthy. Somebody like Walker or James Paxton would have been a nice option to fill out the rotation.
Major moves: Charlie Morton, Drew Smyly, re-signed Marcell Ozuna
I could have put the Blue Jays here, but while I like the Springer and Marcus Semien signings, I’m not a fan of their rotation. So my fifth slot goes to the Braves. Re-signing Ozuna to a four-year deal was obviously a key move, given what he meant to the lineup in 2020 (.338/.431/.636, led the NL in home runs and RBIs). Can he do that over 162? No, probably not, but the Statcast metrics do support a high rate of production. With the DH rule still in limbo, Ozuna will have to play left field and while he’s not good out there he’s not exactly Greg Luzinski or Manny Ramirez. He’ll be fine and batting behind Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman means he might lead the league in RBIs once again.
I also like the plays on Morton and Smyly on one-year deals. We’ve all seen what Morton can do in the postseason. The Braves just have to get him there healthy. I assume they’ll try to limit him to 20 to 25 starts in the regular season, which they can afford to do with their depth of young arms. Smyly is more of a wild card, but after years of injuries he crushed it in 26 innings with the Giants in 2020, striking out 42 with just nine walks. Yes, it was just 26 innings, but the Braves are banking that his new curveball is the real deal.
Five least favorite offseasons
Major moves: Traded Nolan Arenado
Well, this is a sad story. Not only did they trade Arenado — throwing in $51 million in the deal and getting what most feel was a poor return of talent from the Cardinals — they haven’t signed a single major league free agent. Their big addition? C.J. Cron on a minor league contract. Yet when the Rockies held a media conference after trading Arenado, owner Dick Monfort said, “We have an extremely talented team. They are built to compete.” So the owner thinks his team is a possible contender … yet the Rockies haven’t done anything to improve the team, even a small move or two. It’s these mixed messages that have many in the game referring to the Rockies as the biggest mess in the game right now.
Major moves: Traded Yu Darvish, non-tendered Kyle Schwarber, added Zach Davies, Joc Pederson, Jake Arrieta, Brandon Workman, Trevor Williams
Coming off a division title, and following years of success and printing money after the 2016 World Series win, the Ricketts family suddenly cried poor and non-tendered Schwarber and traded Darvish for Davies and some teenage prospects to save payroll. Then late in the offseason they suddenly reversed course, deciding to spend a little money and sign Pederson (fine, he replaces Schwarber) and Arrieta (umm, his ERA has risen five consecutive seasons, including 5.08 with the Phillies in 2020). Are you going for it or not? Pick a lane. I guess here’s the thing: The Cubs might still win the division. Look at guaranteed money spent on free agents this offseason:
NL East: $401.3 million
AL East: $350.6 million
NL West: $249.8 million
AL Central: $180.2 million
AL West: $110.9 million
NL Central: $67.9 million
In the do-nothing NL Central, 86 wins or so might be enough to take the division. It could be the Cubs. That doesn’t mean I love what they’re doing and Cubs fans should be frustrated that one of the marquee, big-market clubs in the sport hasn’t done more to make their team better.
Major moves: Traded Raisel Iglesias and Archie Bradley, signed Sean Doolittle The Reds went all-in in 2020, it didn’t work, so after spending some money last offseason for the first time in forever, owner Bob Castellini is back to his usual ways. Maybe that’s a little unfair — the Reds have run payrolls much higher than other small-market teams. The problem is that when you sign free agents like Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos to long-term deals, that suggests a multiyear commitment to competing. Now they’ve lost Bauer, traded their top two relievers and they don’t have a shortstop. They weren’t going to sign Bauer, but doing nothing is not the road to success in 2021.
Major moves: Signed Corey Kluber, acquired Jameson Taillon, re-signed DJ LeMahieu, re-signed Brett Gardner, lost Masahiro Tanaka and J.A Happ
Look, they re-signed LeMahieu, which is obviously important, but that was a no-brainer: You’re the New York Yankees and he’s been your best player the past two years. Now, whether they’re paying for past production for a player who turns 33 in July remains to be seen, but I think LeMahieu should remain a star for at least a couple of more signings.
I don’t even mind the Kluber and Taillon deals. There is clear upside if the both can rediscover their 2018 form. Both say they’re completely healthy. “The way I would describe it now is that I’m in a normal spot for spring training,” said Kluber, coming off a shoulder issue that limited him to one inning in 2020. “I don’t feel like in a spot where I’m still working on improving the shoulder or anything like that.” said Taillon, who had Tommy John surgery in 2019. “I’m at the point where I feel like I’m ready to transition out of that rehab mode and get into compete mode.”
So it could all work out wonderfully. There is just a lot of risk with the entire rotation. Look at the innings pitched totals from 2020:
Gerrit Cole: 73
Jordan Montgomery: 44
Deivi Garcia: 34.1
Clarke Schmidt: 6.1
Kluber: 1
Taillon: 0
Domingo German: 0
Luis Severino: 0
Rather than making a play on two starters coming back from injury (while letting the reliable Tanaka walk), I would have liked the Yankees to acquire more certainty with somebody like Lynn. Instead, it seems clear the Yankees are trying to keep the payroll under the tax threshold. So no Bauer, no Realmuto, more Gary Sanchez. You would think the World Series drought would want to make ownership a little more … I don’t know, willing to go bigger than a couple of risky starters coming off injuries.
Major moves: Traded Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco, didn’t pick up Brad Hand’s option, signed Eddie Rosario, re-signed Cesar Hernandez
I feel a little mean here criticizing Cleveland since we knew it was going to trade Lindor. But here’s the question: Did this franchise really have to? It COULD have kept him and Carrasco, even kept Hand, and, you know, actually try to win the World Series with Lindor, Jose Ramirez and a potentially formidable rotation — even if it means letting Lindor walk as a free agent. I also didn’t like the return for Lindor all that much, especially since Carrasco was included in the deal. Gimenez is fine, a good glove, but the strength of the Cleveland farm system is at shortstop. Amed Rosario is a second-division kind of player. I imagine Cleveland will try him in center field. Maybe the prospects will pan out. Still, it’s all just a little depressing and I get that Cleveland wants to remain consistently competitive. I think the fans want a World Series contender more.