Let’s preview the 2024 NFL season: Bold predictions, sleeper candidates for all 32 teams

The 2024 NFL season kicks off Thursday night, when the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs host the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC).

Week 1 continues Friday night in Brazil, when the Green Bay Packers face the Philadelphia Eagles in São Paulo (8:15 p.m. ET, Peacock), before Sunday’s slate of 13 games, including the Detroit Lions hosting the Los Angeles Rams on “Sunday Night Football” (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). Opening week wraps up with “Monday Night Football,” as the New York Jets visit the San Francisco 49ers, which you can catch at 8:20 p.m. ET on ESPN, ABC and ESPN+.

To welcome back football, NFL Nation reporters identified strengths and concerns for all 32 teams; NFL analyst Matt Bowen named a fantasy sleeper you should consider; analytics writer Seth Walder made 32 bold predictions; and ESPN Stats & Information gave a stat to know for every team heading into the season. In addition, you’ll find the chances for every team to win its division and make the playoffs, projected win totals and strength of schedule. Plus, depth charts, schedules and rosters for every team.

This is everything you need to know for the start of the season, which will conclude Feb. 9 at Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. The ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) ranked every team from 1 to 32 based on how it projects the season to play out. The 49ers start us off at No. 1:

Jump to a team:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SEA
SF | TB | TEN | WSH

FPI’s overall ranking: No. 1
Chances to win division: 67.9%
Chances to make the playoffs: 85.6%
Projected wins: 11
Strength of schedule: 11th hardest

Biggest strength: Most of the defending NFC champions’ roster returns, including the potential for all 11 offensive starters to play. The Niners were one of the league’s most dominant teams in 2023, and their offense — No. 1 in points per game, efficiency and EPA — could still improve because it finally has stability at quarterback with Brock Purdy for a full offseason. The Niners know this could be the last chance for this nucleus of stars to win a Super Bowl together. — Nick Wagoner

Biggest concern: Overall depth. The Niners were hit hard by preseason injuries, but few of the ones affecting key players appear to be long-term issues. If injuries hit them during the regular season, it’s fair to wonder if the Niners have the depth needed to sustain their success. A lack of top-end draft picks the past three years has made this a top-heavy roster. That hasn’t bitten the Niners yet, but depth — especially on the offensive and defensive lines — is where that could be felt if injuries do arise. — Wagoner

Stat to know: There have been only three teams to win the Super Bowl the season after losing it (2018 Patriots, 1972 Dolphins, 1971 Cowboys). However, none of the Super Bowl losers in the past five years has reached the title game the next season (Eagles, Bengals, Chiefs, Rams), including the 49ers, who missed the playoffs in the 2020 season (6-10) after reaching the Super Bowl the year before.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Jauan Jennings. A receiver who is more than willing to the dirty work in the run game, Jennings is also a refined route runner who can produce in critical game situations. While Jennings had only 35 receptions last season, 23 of those went for first downs. If Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel Sr. were to miss time, Jennings would elevate into a volume role in Kyle Shanahan’s schemed pass game. — Matt Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: The 49ers’ middling offensive line play will catch up to them and they fall out of the top four offenses in the league (in terms of expected points added per play) as a result. The only lineman they can feel great about is left tackle Trent Williams, and even he carries risk, given that he’s 36 years old and currently holding out. Left guard Aaron Banks, center Jake Brendel, right guard Spencer Burford and right tackle Colton McKivitz all showed weakness in either run or pass block win rate last season. — Seth Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 2
Chances to win division: 74.4%
Chances to make the playoffs: 87.1%
Projected wins: 11.1
Strength of schedule: Eighth easiest

Biggest strength: The addition of speed at wide receiver seems to be making a difference. Xavier Worthy, the Chiefs’ first-round draft choice, caught several deep passes in training camp and a couple in the preseason. He is also clearing out room underneath for other pass catchers, such as Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce and Justin Watson. Another addition, Marquise Brown, is recovering from a dislocated shoulder. But Brown’s absence won’t be lengthy, and his speed should be difficult for opponents to handle. — Adam Teicher

Biggest concern: Will the Chiefs’ defense be ready for the start of the regular season? Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo acknowledged his concern that several regulars — including tackle Chris Jones, linebacker Nick Bolton and safety Justin Reid — missed most of camp and all of the preseason due to injuries. All will be available when the regular season begins but may need some time before playing well. The Chiefs also struggled in camp to find a rotation at cornerback outside of Trent McDuffie that Spagnuolo is comfortable with. — Teicher

Stat to know: The Chiefs’ wide receiver group in 2023 led the league in drops with 25, the most by any wide receiver corps in a single season over the past 10 years.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: Worthy. The receiver might not be a true sleeper at this point given his preseason tape and the injury to Brown, which will create more immediate opportunities for the rookie. However, at his current average draft position (ADP around WR40), Worthy still provides really strong value later in drafts. With his 4.21 speed, Worthy can glide past the top of the secondary for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, or run away from coverage on the deep crossing routes in coach Andy Reid’s offense. He is a big-play WR3. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: The Chiefs will be the NFL’s best offense in terms of EPA per play. Maybe that doesn’t sound that bold considering who their quarterback is, but consider that the Chiefs finished 11th in that category last season. I think the additions of “Hollywood” Brown and Worthy, plus a year of experience for Rice, are going to make a dramatic difference and put this offense back atop the league. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 3
Chances to win division: 46.4%
Chances to make the playoffs: 78.5%
Projected wins: 10.6
Strength of schedule: Ninth hardest

Biggest strength: Running the ball. The Ravens have ranked No. 1 in the NFL in rushing three of the past five years, including last season. Now, a slimmed-down Lamar Jackson shares the backfield with his first All-Pro running back in Derrick Henry. This has the makings of an explosive combination. Since Jackson debuted in 2018, he leads the NFL in average rush yards before contact (4.7) and Henry tops the league in average rush yards after contact (2.4). — Jamison Hensley

Biggest concern: Pass rush off the edge. One of the biggest offseason losses for Baltimore was Jadeveon Clowney, who signed with the Carolina Panthers after ranking second on the team with 9.5 sacks and 19 quarterback hits in 2023. Baltimore has solid starters in Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy. But the question is with the top backups: David Ojabo, rookie third-round pick Adisa Isaac and Tavius Robinson, who have a combined three career sacks. — Hensley

Stat to know: Last season, the Ravens allowed 5.9 yards per pass attempt, the lowest mark by any defense in the NFL. It was the third-lowest mark by a defense allowed in the past 10 seasons, behind only the 2021 Bills (5.7) and 2016 Broncos (5.8).

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Rashod Bateman. He was healthy in 2023, playing 16 games, yet he failed to post a single week with double-digit fantasy production, averaging only 4.8 PPG. Working in the No. 3 role for the Ravens’ pass game behind TE Mark Andrews and WR Zay Flowers doesn’t create consistent volume opportunities, but if you need a late-round flier, Bateman has the traits and talent of a perimeter target. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Keaton Mitchell will be a top-10 fantasy running back in terms of points per game when he returns from a torn left ACL suffered late last season. Mitchell was outrageous in a small sample last year, accumulating 201 rush yards over expectation — the fourth-highest total of any player in the league — despite carrying the ball only 47 times, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He is an incredible complement to Henry, and I believe Mitchell will be a huge asset to the Ravens down the stretch. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 4
Chances to win division: 52.1%
Chances to make the playoffs: 80.6%
Projected wins: 10.6
Strength of schedule: Seventh hardest

Biggest strength: Detroit’s offense features the same foundation from the 2023 team that reached the NFC Championship Game and won its first NFC North title since 1993. Veteran QB Jared Goff is one of seven Pro Bowlers who are back, including first-team All-Pro WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and OT Penei Sewell. The Lions also kept OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn, who were receiving serious head-coaching interest during the offseason, so the winning formula remains in place. — Eric Woodyard

Biggest concern: Detroit’s front office was aggressive in addressing defensive issues on the roster, but has it really improved? As a whole, the Lions’ 2023 defense allowed opponents to score a TD on 23% of their drives, which ranked 25th, and they’ll be relying on a ton of new faces, including rookie CBs Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. The first-year defenders were solid throughout the preseason and are expected to be instant-impact players to help improve Detroit’s secondary. — Woodyard

Stat to know: St. Brown had 13 catches and zero drops on tight-window throws (less than 1-yard of separation) in 2023. He has never dropped a tight-window pass since being selected in Round 4 of the 2021 draft, going 23-of-23.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Jameson Williams. He is expected to play the No. 2 role opposite St. Brown. In 12 games played last season, Williams averaged 14.8 YPC, with 20.8% of his receptions going for more than 20 yards. He’s an electric mover with playmaking traits who could produce WR3 numbers in 2024. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Kevin Zeitler will finish in the top 5 in pass block win rate among guards. Zeitler signed a one-year, $6 million deal in the offseason — incredible value in an otherwise expensive guard market — and I believe it can pay off in a huge way. Zeitler is 34, but if he has one more good year left in him, that would add more strength to an already stout Lions offensive line. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 5
Chances to win division: 43.6%
Chances to make the playoffs: 70.2%
Projected wins: 10
Strength of schedule: Second hardest

Biggest strength: Josh Allen. For all the questions surrounding the Bills’ period of transition, the team will continue to be in the mix as long as their quarterback is healthy. Going into his seventh season, Allen is coming off another top-five MVP finish, has led the team in rushing and passing touchdowns five times and has four straight seasons with 40 combined passing and rushing touchdowns, the longest streak in NFL history. — Alaina Getzenberg

Biggest concern: Uncertainty at safety. Due to multiple injuries during camp, this is a starting position that is not settled and has seen inconsistencies on the field. The Bills are replacing seven-year starters Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, and with coach Sean McDermott putting significant communication responsibilities and importance on the starting safety roles, the uncertainty is a concern going into this season. — Getzenberg

Stat to know: Buffalo has gone 58-24 (.707) over the past five regular seasons, second only to Kansas City (63-20, .759). The team’s 58 wins are tied with the 2017-21 Saints for most wins during a five-season span without reaching the Super Bowl. Buffalo has not reached a Super Bowl since 1993.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Khalil Shakir. The Bills moved on from Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason, but Shakir will still see competition for targets from rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and tight end Dalton Kincaid. In 2023, Shakir posted three games with 15 or more fantasy points, and he has the skill set to produce in space, as 46.2% of his receiving yardage came after the catch. He is a deeper-league player to monitor. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Shakir will record at least 1,000 receiving yards. This projection is mostly based on playing with the second-best quarterback in the league in a wide receivers room that is otherwise quite lacking. But Shakir has proved himself to be a solid player, with a top-36 overall score in our receiver tracking metrics in each of his two NFL seasons. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 6
Chances to win division: 45.5%
Chances to make the playoffs: 77.8%
Projected wins: 10.3
Strength of schedule: 16th hardest

Biggest strength: The connection from Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb. Lamb led the NFL in catches with 135 and set a team record with 1,747 yards to go along with 12 receiving touchdowns last season. Prescott led the NFL in touchdown passes (36) and finished second in MVP voting. Lamb’s absence from training camp wasn’t the best for their connection, but they spent ample time together in the offseason to keep it sharp. Both believe they will have enough time to get up to speed for the regular season, which will be a must if the Cowboys are to make the playoffs for a fourth straight season. — Todd Archer

Biggest concern: The Cowboys need a fast start to the season, and five of their first seven games are against playoff teams from 2023. Without a fast start, the tension level rises on Mike McCarthy and the rest of his coaching staff, who are all on one-year deals. Jerry Jones has made one in-season coaching change in his time as owner and GM. In 2010, he relieved Wade Phillips at the midway point and named Jason Garrett the interim coach. — Archer

Stat to know: Prescott has posted a higher QBR (93.1) targeting Lamb than any QB-receiver combo in the league with a minimum of 250 targets since the wideout was selected No. 17 overall in 2020.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Rico Dowdle. Dallas brought back veteran Ezekiel Elliott, who will start the season as the Cowboys’ No. 1, but don’t forget about Dowdle as a change-of-pace runner who could see an increase in touches as the season progresses. Dowdle registered a career-high 505 scrimmage yards in 2023, and he has the dual-threat ability to impact the passing game. He’s a deeper-league sleeper who could emerge if the 29-year-old Elliott fails to produce. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Parsons will break the single-season sack record. Is this the same bold prediction I made last year? Yes. Did Parsons come up well short? Yes. But I still believe because he has led the league in pass rush win rate each season since he became a pro in 2021. The sacks are going to come in an avalanche at some point, and I think 2024 could be the season in which that happens. My sack projections model likes him more than anyone else too. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 7
Chances to win division: 36.5%
Chances to make the playoffs: 72.5%
Projected wins: 10.3
Strength of schedule: Seventh easiest

Biggest strength: The defense should be much improved. With the return of safety Vonn Bell, communication across the unit has improved tremendously. Sheldon Rankins is an imposing interior pass rusher, and Cincinnati feels its defensive depth will be a big asset this season. There is also nowhere to go but up for the Bengals. In 2023, they allowed the most yards per play in the league (6.0). But early returns in training camp indicate a turnaround this season. — Ben Baby

Biggest concern: Uncertainty around the passing attack. Although the preseason provided modest glimpses of where QB Joe Burrow is in his recovery from surgery to repair a damaged ligament in his throwing wrist, he’ll be fully tested in the regular season, when he will be hit for the first time since last November. WR Ja’Marr Chase didn’t practice all training camp amid a contract dispute, finally taking part in his first session last week. The unit needs to be more explosive, too, after finishing last season 22nd in completions of 20 or more yards. — Baby

Stat to know: Protecting Burrow has remained a priority for the Bengals, especially because the quarterback has been sacked 148 times since being drafted in 2020. The team continued to add help in the 2024 draft, when Cincinnati selected OT Amarius Mims with the No. 18 pick.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Chase Brown. Zack Moss is slated to be the early-down runner for the Bengals, but Brown still has upside as a No. 2 in Cincinnati. As a rookie in 2023, Brown flashed the ability to find daylight as a runner, while averaging 14.4 yards per reception on screens. Brown is a smart insurance play behind Moss, as his receiving usage creates potential flex value in deeper formats. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: The Bengals will miss the playoffs. This is mostly just a hunch. But the loss of offensive coordinator Brian Callahan gives me pause; I’m a little concerned about Cincinnati’s guards and right tackle; and the defense was poor last season. Plus, Burrow’s efficiency numbers have never quite lived up to his reputation. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 8
Chances to win division: 49.0%
Chances to make the playoffs: 79.4%
Projected wins: 10.5
Strength of schedule: Sixth easiest

Biggest strength: A star-studded cast on offense. This is arguably the most gifted skill position group in team history — a unit that includes QB Jalen Hurts, RB Saquon Barkley, WR A.J. Brown, WR DeVonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. The Eagles also added WR Jahan Dotson. There are more questions than usual surrounding the offensive line, including the effect of C Jason Kelce‘s retirement. But overall, GM Howie Roseman has assembled more than enough talent to produce a top-five offense. — Tim McManus

Biggest concern: Some dysfunction crept in last season, as a 10-1 start gave way to a 1-6 collapse. It included a strained working relationship between coach Nick Sirianni and Hurts. Changes have since been made. Kellen Moore replaced Brian Johnson at OC and was given more creative control. Vic Fangio was brought in as DC and should make the defense a more functional unit. But we won’t know whether the team has moved fully past last season’s issues until adversity hits. — McManus

Stat to know: Philadelphia is set to become the first team in NFL history to begin a season with a quarterback who had 10 scrimmage TDs (Hurts), a running back who had 10 scrimmage TDs (Barkley) and two 1,000-yard receivers from the previous season (Smith and Brown).

Fantasy sleeper candidate: TE Goedert. The tight end averaged 9.7 PPG last season, down from 11.8 in 2024, but he totaled four games with 14 points or more. And with Moore taking over as the offensive coordinator in Philly, Goedert can be schemed as a movement target for Hurts on play-action and run-pass option (RPO) from multiple alignments. Plus, at his current double-digit ADP, Goedert provides strong value in deeper leagues. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Jalen Carter will record 10-plus sacks, which is well beyond what my sack projections say. Last season the top three defensive tackles in “pass rush get off” — the time to cross the line of scrimmage when pass rushing — were Chris Jones, Carter and Aaron Donald, in that order. Carter has elite potential. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 9
Chances to win division: 50.8%
Chances to make the playoffs: 64.6%
Projected wins: 9.6
Strength of schedule: Fourth hardest

Biggest strength: The Texans’ offense is loaded with Pro Bowlers, including QB C.J. Stroud, WR Stefon Diggs, RB Joe Mixon and LT Laremy Tunsil. And non-Pro Bowl WRs Nico Collins and Tank Dell are just as explosive. So if the group is healthy, Houston’s offense will be dynamic. Stroud called the playmakers a “five-headed monster” at the beginning of training camp, and it looked like that at times throughout camp. — DJ Bien-Aime

Biggest concern: The Texans’ offensive line has an injury history. On paper, the unit has talent, led by Tunsil, RG Shaq Mason and highly paid RT Tytus Howard. But everyone outside of Mason has missed time, either last season or in training camp. The offensive line depth isn’t nearly as good as last season, when swing tackle George Fant stepped in and played effectively, masking missed time from Howard. The Texans need a healthy offensive line to reach their lofty expectations. — Bien-Aime

Stat to know: Coach DeMeco Ryans and Stroud were the third rookie head coach-quarterback duo since 1950 to win a playoff game, joining John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco (2008 Ravens) and Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez (2009 Jets).

Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Dameon Pierce. He saw his numbers plummet in 2023 and begins this season as the backup to Mixon. Although that doesn’t create much excitement, Pierce did produce as a rookie in 2022, rushing for 939 yards and catching 30 of 39 targets. If Mixon were to go down with an injury, Pierce would elevate into the lead role for an explosive Houston offense that will move the ball and score points. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. will make the Pro Bowl. Beyond his draft résumé, Stingley allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which ranked in the top 10 for an outside corner with at least 300 coverage snaps. With the Texans’ young defense gaining steam and a strong pass rush up front, things are setting up nicely for a big season from the 2022 No. 3 pick. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 10
Chances to win division: 31.2%
Chances to make the playoffs: 65.2%
Projected wins: 9.7
Strength of schedule: 12th hardest

Biggest strength: Last year’s weakness — first-year starter Jordan Love and the youngest group of receivers in the league — is this year’s strength. Love played as well as any quarterback over the final two months of the regular season and was stellar in the playoffs. He has a bevy of weapons in Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft among others, and coach Matt LaFleur found a way to utilize most of them last season. — Rob Demovsky

Biggest concern: Isn’t it almost always the defense (where the Packers have their third DC in LaFleur’s six seasons) or special teams? The early reviews of former Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley’s new defense in Green Bay have been positive, but there has been misguided optimism on that side of the ball before. Which brings us to the kicking game, where the Packers — for now — are going with undrafted rookie Brayden Narveson, who was claimed off waivers from Tennessee after final cuts. This was after none of the other five kickers the Packers had on the roster at various times this offseason (Anders Carlson, Greg Joseph, Jack Podlesny, James Turner and Alex Hale) proved worthy. — Demovsky

Stat to know: The Packers took Arizona OT Jordan Morgan in the first round of the 2024 draft. Morgan did not have a blown block in 306 run-blocking plays in his final college season, the third-most plays without a blown block by any Power 5 offensive lineman.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Wicks. The wide receiver posted double-digit fantasy production in four of his final six 2023 games, highlighted by his career-high 24.1 points against the Bears in Week 18. With a deep and talented Packers wide receiver room, Wicks doesn’t have a defined path to consistent fantasy production. However, with his 6-foot-1 frame and route skills, Wicks can work his way into the rotation this season. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: MarShawn Lloyd will take over the No. 1 running back role by the end of the season. Free agent signee Josh Jacobs was very effective in 2022 but recorded negative rush yards over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) in 2020, 2021 and 2023. Last season, his RYOE total was minus-86. I’m willing to bet that 2022 was Jacobs’ outlier and that the Packers will prefer Lloyd as their featured back by December. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 11
Chances to win division: 31.4%
Chances to make the playoffs: 60.4%
Projected wins: 9.5
Strength of schedule: 13th easiest

Biggest strength: Offensive continuity. The trio of Tua Tagovailoa (led NFL in passing yards), Tyreek Hill (tops in receiving yards) and Raheem Mostert (tops in in rushing touchdowns) was elite in 2023. They’re all back, as are WR Jaylen Waddle, RB De’Von Achane and five players who started multiple games for the Dolphins in 2023. Factor in the same core offensive coaching staff and newcomers RB Jaylen Wright, TE Jonnu Smith and WR Odell Beckham Jr., and Miami could repeat as the league’s top offensive team. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Biggest concern: Offensive line depth. Yes, a lot of the same players are back from last season, but this unit has been hit often by injuries over the past two years. Terron Armstead is one of the best tackles in the NFL when healthy, but he missed seven games last season and four in 2022. New center Aaron Brewer is managing an injury he picked up during training camp, and left guard Isaiah Wynn has not practiced since a quadriceps injury in Week 7 of last season. The good news is that this group has plenty of versatility, which can offset injuries to an extent. — Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: Miami’s offensive line problems date back to Tagovailoa’s rookie season in 2020. The Dolphins’ pass block win rate of 51% since then is the second worst in the NFL, behind the Bengals (50%). In 2023, Miami’s 49% PBWR was the second worst, behind the Patriots (44%).

Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Wright. In an offense that prioritizes straight-line speed, Wright can be targeted as a late-round pickup with big-play upside in the run game. The rookie ran a 4.38 40-yard dash at the combine and had 35 rushes of 10 or more yards in his final college season at Tennessee. Playing behind Mostert and Achane, both of whom have had injuries, could open the door earlier for Wright in a run game that is one of the league’s best. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: The Dolphins will at least reach the AFC Championship Game. I’m a believer in coach Mike McDaniel and his offense. Even though it slowed down in the stretch run last season, the Miami offense ranked second in EPA per play in 2023. That type of production over a whole season bodes well for future performance. Plus, if the Dolphins can get a full season from cornerback Jalen Ramsey and edge rusher Jaelan Phillips, that will go a long way toward solidifying the defense. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 12
Chances to win division: 24.6%
Chances to make the playoffs: 52.9%
Projected wins: 9.2
Strength of schedule: Ninth easiest

Biggest strength: Aaron Rodgers looks terrific. He took about 800 practice reps in what he called one of the most taxing training camps of his career, and he didn’t look like a 40-year-old quarterback coming off left Achilles surgery. There might be early-season rust — he hasn’t played a full game in 20 months — but his mere presence should elevate an offense that scored a league-low 18 touchdowns in 2023. The duo of Rodgers and WR Garrett Wilson dominated all summer. — Rich Cimini

Biggest concern: Depth on the defensive line. Gone are Bryce Huff, John Franklin-Myers and Quinton Jefferson, who combined for 19.5 sacks and 1,604 snaps in 2023. The Jets imported Haason Reddick (holding out) and Javon Kinlaw as replacements, and they plan to expand Will McDonald‘s role. This is concerning for a defense that relies heavily on an eight-man rotation. — Cimini

Stat to know: Rodgers could become the fifth QB in NFL history (excluding rookies) to throw 25 touchdowns after a season when he didn’t complete a pass. He has had at least 25 TD passes in each of the 13 seasons in which he played at least 10 games.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Braelon Allen. He has the traits of an old-school I-formation back. He’s a north-south runner at 6-foot-1, 235 pounds, with the power to get through contact. Allen broke 77 tackles during his three years at Wisconsin, and he could be used as a goal-line runner if starter Breece Hall misses time due to injury. He is a potential waiver pickup. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: WR Wilson will be a first-team All-Pro and CB Sauce Gardner will receive his third nod. When doing my 100-player MVP ballot, the feedback I got from folks in the league was that Wilson was already one of the very best wide receivers in the NFL and his production was held back by quarterback play. Gardner is already elite — over the past two seasons, he ranks second in yards per coverage snap allowed and third in EPA allowed among outside corners, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 13
Chances to win division: 18.2%
Chances to make the playoffs: 47.2%
Projected wins: 8.8
Strength of schedule: 10th hardest

Biggest strength: The Rams return the majority of an offense that started clicking down the stretch last season to lead them to a playoff berth. A big part of that was Matthew Stafford, who ranked second in QBR (72.8) and was tied for third in passing touchdowns (16) from Weeks 11 to 18. With a healthy Cooper Kupp returning alongside second-year receiver Puka Nacua, Los Angeles hopes it can find its way back to the playoffs. — Sarah Barshop

Biggest concern: After Aaron Donald‘s retirement, the Rams will be heavily dependent on their young defense, led by new coordinator Chris Shula. Los Angeles has used draft capital to build up the unit the past two years, but the Rams will need to see continued growth from second-year players DE Kobie Turner and LB Byron Young. The unit won’t have the benefit of having Donald, who was double-teamed on a league-high 311 pass-rush plays last season, to take off pressure. — Barshop

Stat to know: Stafford could join the short list of NFL quarterbacks to reach 60,000 passing yards. He sits at 56,047 and has averaged 4,424 yards in seasons when he started at least 15 games.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Blake Corum. Starting running back Kyren Williams missed four games last season due to injury, and the Rams invested a third-round pick on Corum in this year’s draft. At 5-foot-8, 210 pounds, with the contact balance to produce between the tackles, Corum is a seamless fit for an offense that has become more gap-heavy in the run game. Corum, who rushed for 24 touchdowns at Michigan last season, can be targeted in all formats as a top insurance back. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Tight end Colby Parkinson will score eight-plus touchdowns. I’m buying a major role increase for Parkinson, who played less than half of Seattle’s offensive snaps last season but now is in L.A., where Tyler Higbee played at least 86% of snaps in games he took part in during each of the past three seasons. With Higbee out with a torn ACL and MCL suffered in January, the TE1 role looks like Parkinson’s now. I think the 6-foot-7 tight end will haul in quite a few short touchdown passes from Stafford while opponents focus on stopping Nacua and Kupp. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 14
Chances to win division: 9.1%
Chances to make the playoffs: 33.5%
Projected wins: 8.2
Strength of schedule: Eighth hardest

Biggest strength: Continuity on defense. The defense not only improved in its first season under coordinator Jim Schwartz, it thrived. In 2023, the unit allowed the fewest yards in the NFL. Now, it returns the overwhelming majority of its starters from last season, led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett. It’s one of the best defenses at playing man coverage, and there’s even talk about adding wrinkles to a scheme that already befuddles quarterbacks. — Daniel Oyefusi

Biggest concern: Health of key offensive players. Top tackles Jedrick Wills Jr. and Jack Conklin are returning from severe knee injuries, while running back Nick Chubb is rehabbing a knee injury that will sideline him for at least the first four games of the season. And then there’s quarterback Deshaun Watson, who is back from a season-ending shoulder injury. He has struggled to stay healthy and perform at his previous Pro Bowl level, posting the sixth-worst QBR since making his debut in Cleveland. — Oyefusi

Stat to know: Cleveland’s 11-6 season in 2023 came despite inconsistent quarterback play. The Browns, who started five quarterbacks last season, posted a cumulative team Total QBR of 37. It was the worst QBR by any team to win 10-plus games in a season since the metric was introduced in 2006.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Pierre Strong Jr. With Chubb (knee) starting the season on the PUP list, Jerome Ford figures to step into the lead role for Cleveland. But let’s keep an eye on Strong, a rapid accelerator with the vision to find open running lanes. Strong averaged 4.6 YPC last season, and while his receiving numbers don’t jump off the page (five receptions, 47 yards), he has the skills to be productive as a pass-game target on screens, swings and underneath releases. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Jerry Jeudy will finish as a top 30 fantasy wide receiver (he’s being drafted around WR50). I might never quit Jeudy, but there’s good reason I maintain my faith — he gets open. That’s the trait I always want to bet on when forecasting future production. Jeudy’s open scores in 2021, 2022 and 2023 were 80, 79 and 60, respectively. There is untapped upside here that the Browns could unlock. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 15
Chances to win division: 56.8%
Chances to make the playoffs: 67.4%
Projected wins: 9.6
Strength of schedule: Easiest

Biggest strength: There are many, which is why the Falcons sold out their season tickets before training camp for the first time in two decades. Atlanta signed Kirk Cousins, giving the franchise its best quarterback since Matt Ryan. He gives the team’s young skill players — RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London and TE Kyle Pitts — a chance to break out. And then the Falcons acquired two Pro Bowlers: edge rusher Matthew Judon and safety Justin Simmons. — Marc Raimondi

Biggest concern: General manager Terry Fontenot addressed the biggest one — defense — by trading for Judon and signing Simmons. New head coach Raheem Morris is also a defensive guru. Still, the Falcons have been worse at getting to the quarterback than any other team over the past five seasons — 23 fewer sacks than anyone else. Judon will help, but he can’t do it alone. Others will need to step up on a defense with many unproven commodities. — Raimondi

Stat to know: The Falcons have finished in the bottom half of the league in scoring defense in six straight seasons, tied with the Panthers for the longest active streak.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Darnell Mooney. His production declined in Chicago’s subpar passing attack last season (31 receptions, 414 yards), but he has the vertical-stretch ability to create explosive plays with Cousins. Slated to start as the No. 2 WR for the Falcons opposite London, Mooney should see a bump in target volume, making him a potential deeper league WR3 option. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Despite an offense that I expect to take a major step forward with the signing of Cousins, Pitts will disappoint again and fail to reach 700 receiving yards. We’re now three years removed from his strong rookie season, and I don’t believe former Falcons coach Arthur Smith was the only thing holding Pitts back. Last season, Pitts ranked 33rd out of 44 tight ends in open score (43) in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics, which has me concerned about his prospects. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 16
Chances to win division: 22.5%
Chances to make the playoffs: 37.5%
Projected wins: 8.3
Strength of schedule: 13th hardest

Biggest strength: A healthy WR Christian Kirk and QB Trevor Lawrence. Last season, the offense was disjointed when Kirk missed the final five games and Lawrence dealt with injuries over the same stretch. Adding WR Gabe Davis and rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. should help stretch the field, which is something the offense couldn’t do last year with WR Zay Jones battling a knee injury all season. This offense has the potential to be better than the unit that in 20222 finished10th in scoring and passing yards and ninth in total yards. — Mike DiRocco

Biggest concern: The Jaguars brought back four of five starters from an offensive line that ranked 28th in run block win rate and 29th in pass block win rate. They did make an upgrade at center, bringing in veteran Mitch Morse, who was the second-best run-blocking center in the league in 2023, to replace Luke Fortner. They’re counting on LG Ezra Cleveland and RB Brandon Scherff to stay healthy. If this group can just be average, the offense should have success. — DiRocco

Stat to know: Since 2022, Lawrence has lost 16 fumbles, the most in the NFL during that span. He also has committed 38 turnovers, the second most in the NFL behind Bills QB Josh Allen.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Thomas. With Calvin Ridley now in Tennessee, there is an opening for Thomas — the rookie out of LSU — to play a productive role in coach Doug Pederson’s pass game. Thomas can get loose over the top of the defense, using his late separation speed and ball-tracking skills to cash in. Plus, Pederson can scheme for Thomas, creating intermediate voids for Lawrence to deliver the ball. You can draft Thomas as a WR3, knowing he has the ability to produce breakout weeks. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Cornerback Tyson Campbell has had two rough seasons (2021, 2023) and one great one (2022) since joining the NFL. I’ll say he bounces back to something closer to what he did in 2022, when he allowed 1.1 yards per coverage snap or less, per NFL Next Gen Stats. For reference, 1.3 is average for an outside corner and Campbell was at 1.6 last season. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 17
Chances to win division: 8.1%
Chances to make the playoffs: 29.0%
Projected wins: 7.9
Strength of schedule: Third hardest

Biggest strength: A deep, veteran defense. With the circus around the Steelers’ quarterback competition, the team’s defense has been largely overlooked. But with additions such as ILBs Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson, S DeShon Elliott and CB Donte Jackson, a Steelers defense that held opponents to 19.7 PPG in 2023 reloaded. S Minkah Fitzpatrick should make more plays in a strengthened secondary. And in the front seven, up-and-comers Keeanu Benton, Nick Herbig and Wilson are showing signs of being contributors. — Brooke Pryor

Biggest concern: QBs Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Although he threw 26 TDs and eight INTs, Wilson was the fourth-most sacked quarterback in 2023. And Fields (16 TDs, nine INTs), was right behind Wilson at No. 5, taking 44 sacks in two fewer games. Wilson entered training camp in the lead for the starting job, but coach Mike Tomlin publicly kept the competition going until naming Wilson the starter on Wednesday. As the saying goes, when you have two quarterbacks, you might have none. — Pryor

Stat to know: New OC Arthur Smith used play-action at the second-highest rate (32%) from 2021 to 2023 when he was the Falcons’ head coach. This could benefit Wilson, whose 11 play-action TD passes in 2023 were tied for second most in the NFL.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: QB Fields. With Wilson opening the season as the Steelers’ No. 1 quarterback, Fields will have to wait for an opportunity, either through injury or poor play at the position. Fields averaged 17.7 fantasy PPG in Chicago last season, and he has posted 12 games with 20 or more points over the past two seasons, including three with 30 or more. With his dual-threat traits, Fields has the ability to produce breakout games. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Nick Herbig‘s breakout is coming, and the linebacker will record at least 7.0 sacks this season. Among pass rushers with between 40 and 150 pass rushes from the edge with a win or a loss (essentially nonstarters), Herbig ranked second in pass rush win rate at the position at 26%. He’s behind T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, but I think he’ll produce when given a chance. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 18
Chances to win division: 18.9%
Chances to make the playoffs: 44.8%
Projected wins: 8.8
Strength of schedule: Second easiest

Biggest strength: Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh. In Harbaugh’s four seasons as an NFL coach, he took the 49ers to three straight NFC title games, and the Chargers hired him with hopes that he can recreate that magic in L.A. with one of the league’s best quarterbacks in Herbert. The 25-year-old has the most passing yards (14,089) and completed passes (1,316) during a quarterback’s first three seasons in NFL history. — Kris Rhim

Biggest concern: Wide receivers. The Chargers could have one of the league’s worst receiving corps on paper, with just one player having eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in a season (DJ Chark Jr. in 2019). Joshua Palmer, who sat behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for the past three seasons, is the team’s top target, while Chark, rookie receiver Ladd McConkey and last year’s first-round pick Quentin Johnston will look to help make this group a strength. — Rhim

Stat to know: Harbaugh went 44-19-1 (.695) with the 49ers, the fifth-highest win percentage by a coach in NFL history with a minimum of 50 games.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Chark. A boundary target who can work the third level and find openings in the middle of the field, Chark is a player to consider in deeper leagues. Injuries have limited him during his six pro seasons, so that is something to monitor. However, Chark does have 23 career touchdowns and can be schemed as a play-action option. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: The Chargers will rank in the top 20 in designed pass rate. Certainly, there’s an expectation for a Harbaugh-Greg Roman offense to be very run-heavy. But I also have a hard time imagining them having a quarterback like Herbert and not leaning on him. They have to let him throw sometimes, right? — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 19
Chances to win division: 13.2%
Chances to make the playoffs: 41.6%
Projected wins: 8.6
Strength of schedule: 10th easiest

Biggest strength: Caleb Williams is arguably in the best situation imaginable for a quarterback drafted No. 1 overall. The Bears won five of their last eight games in 2023, surrounded the former Heisman Trophy winner with three 1,000-yard wide receivers and significantly upgraded the core that surrounds him offensively. Williams has battled with a defense eyeing top-tier status every day in practice, a unit whose depth on the back end is the best it’s been since coach Matt Eberflus was hired in 2022. — Courtney Cronin

Biggest concern: Eberflus recently expressed concern over the Bears’ lack of depth at defensive tackle. That’s not the only part of the pass rush that could be problematic. The Bears had the lowest sack percentage (4.64%) and second-fewest sacks (30) in 2023 and have yet to upgrade the starting edge rusher spot opposite Montez Sweat. — Cronin

Stat to know: The Bears have never had a player with 30 passing TDs or 4,000 passing yards in a season.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Khalil Herbert. D’Andre Swift is the new No. 1 in Chicago after signing a multiyear deal in free agency, which will limit Herbert’s total touches. However, Herbert still carries fantasy value as an insurance play behind Swift. A savvy zone runner with second-level contact balance, Herbert would elevate to the flex ranks if Swift were to miss time with an injury. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Williams will have at least a 10% sack rate through Week 6, which will elicit a public panic about the offensive line, even though the Bears’ pass block win rate will rank in the top half of the league. The sacks will mostly be on Williams, who had a 7.3% sack rate in his final season at USC, not too far off from Justin Fields’ 7.6% rate in his final season at Ohio State in 2020. I think Williams will be a star but he tends to hold on to the ball for a while, just like his Chicago predecessor. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 20
Chances to win division: 21.2%
Chances to make the playoffs: 36.1%
Projected wins: 8.2
Strength of schedule: 12th easiest

Biggest strength: The Colts have the best offensive skill players they’ve fielded in years. QB Anthony Richardson returns from a season-ending shoulder injury, and his playmaking ability instantly raises the offense’s ceiling. The addition of WR Adonai Mitchell in the second round and the good health of RB Jonathan Taylor means there could be an additional increase in offensive fireworks. The Colts could use the help, since they finished 2023 ranked 23rd in explosive plays. — Stephen Holder

Biggest concern: The Colts’ secondary is easily their least experienced unit. Shortcomings at DB contributed to a loss in the final week of the 2023 season, and they begin this season unsure whether their young cover men will hold up. Hopes are high for second-year players JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones, but the sample size is still very small. And at safety, Nick Cross, who has started just four games in his career, has offered mixed results to this point in his three-year career. — Holder

Stat to know: Richardson will be the first Colts QB to start back-to-back season openers since Andrew Luck (2012-16).

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Mitchell. The receiver could emerge this season as a vertical threat for Richardson. Mitchell is a sudden mover in the route stem, and he displays the high-level body control and ball skills to finish at the point of attack. If you play in a deeper league and want to take a shot on a rookie with playmaking upside, then Mitchell is your guy. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu will combine for 20 sacks this season. Paye made a big jump in his, well, jump last season, improving his “pass rush get off” from 0.85 seconds to 0.76 (a significant difference), which helped him get 8.5 sacks. Meanwhile, Latu was the best in college football in pressure rate from the edge last season, so I’m guessing the first defensive player drafted will hit the ground running. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 21
Chances to win division: 8.8%
Chances to make the playoffs: 29.1%
Projected wins: 7.9
Strength of schedule: 15th hardest

Biggest strength: Mike Macdonald’s defense. Pete Carroll’s successor may have some growing pains as a first-time head coach, but he’ll give the Seahawks a schematic edge they’ve maybe never had. As great as their Legion of Boom defenses were, they were executing a simple scheme that won with talent. Macdonald is importing the defense he coordinated the past two season in Baltimore, which was the best in the NFL in large part because of how tough it was for opposing quarterbacks to decipher. — Brady Henderson

Biggest concern: The offensive line is again a concern. That group ranked 25th in pass block win rate last season, struggling to overcome injuries to both tackles and an overall lack of difference-making talent. LT Charles Cross could break out (Seattle recently upgraded at center by signing Connor Williams,) but he’s coming off a torn ACL suffered in December while RT Abraham Lucas has yet to practice this offseason as he comes off a knee surgery of his own. — Henderson

Stat to know: Macdonald’s Ravens defense in 2023 had a defensive extra points added of 112.8, the highest of any team since the Patriots in 2019 (171.3). The Seahawks finished last season with a defensive EPA of minus-65, fourth worst in the NFL.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: QB Geno Smith. With a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb, plus a wide receiver room featuring DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Smith has upside as a QB2. Smith’s numbers declined last season, but in 2022, the veteran quarterback averaged 17.7 PPG while throwing 30 touchdown passes. And at his current ADP (QB24), Smith provides great value in superflex leagues. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Cornerback Riq Woolen will be named at least a second-team All-Pro and/or Pro Bowler. Even though he had a tough 2023 — he was even benched at one point — Woolen’s nearest-defender numbers were still excellent. He allowed 0.8 yards per coverage snap, third best among corners with at least 300 such snaps. He’ll get back on track in an elite way in a new defense under Macdonald. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 22
Chances to win division: 21.9%
Chances to make the playoffs: 33.6%
Projected wins: 7.9
Strength of schedule: Fifth easiest

Biggest strength: The ground game. After averaging 3.3 yards per carry in 2023, the Bucs’ 4.4 YPC average this preseason is tied for fourth best in the NFL. They invested a first-round draft pick in new starting center Graham Barton, a fourth-rounder in running back Bucky Irving and a sixth-rounder in guard Elijah Klein. They also signed left guard Ben Bredeson in free agency and have a better understanding of the blocking scheme and how to attack the holes. — Jenna Laine

Biggest concern: New pieces on defense. The Bucs parted ways with outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett, inside linebacker Devin White and cornerback Carlton Davis III. Did they do enough to fill those spots? While they drafted edge rusher Chris Braswell in the second round, he’s not slated to start — the unproven Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is. And they’re counting on Zyon McCollum to start at corner, but what about the depth behind him? — Laine

Stat to know: There is nowhere to go but up for OC Liam Coen and the Bucs’ run game in 2024. Tampa Bay recorded the fewest rushing yards in the league (1,509) and produced the second-fewest yards per designed rush (3.5) in 2023.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Jalen McMillan. He is expected to start the season as the No. 3 wide receiver in Tampa, where he can see volume from both slot and perimeter alignments. McMillan has the playmaking traits to get vertical, create in space or turn an underneath throw into a big gain. And that fits with the aggressive throwing mentality of quarterback Baker Mayfield. You can take a flier on the rookie receiver late in drafts. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: The Bucs will win six or fewer games. I’m concerned about the offensive coordinator change, with Dave Canales gone to Carolina, and the interior of the offensive line, so I’m selling high on Mayfield. Though he performed well last season, he was awfully poor the two seasons before that. That still matters when looking ahead. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 23
Chances to win division: 5.1%
Chances to make the playoffs: 19.0%
Projected wins: 7.2
Strength of schedule: 14th hardest

Biggest strength: Two rise above all else: QB Kyler Murray and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Murray participated in a complete offseason and has a firm grasp of the offense, making fast and good decisions, tight end Trey McBride said. “The guy looks phenomenal right now,” McBride added. Add in Harrison’s elite skill set to an offense that’s itching to explode, and the Cardinals have a recipe for yards and points. — Josh Weinfuss

Biggest concern: The defense, which continues to take hit after hit. First, it was outside linebacker BJ Ojulari, a presumptive starter, going down with an ACL injury and then rookie defensive lineman Darius Robinson, who was a first-round pick this year, injured his calf in practice. Those injuries, coupled with questions about Arizona’s pass rush and cornerbacks, leave the defense as the reason for concern. — Weinfuss

Stat to know: Harrison has a chance to be a part of Cardinals history. Only one Cardinals rookie has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards (Anquan Boldin, 2003) and none has reached double-digit receiving touchdowns in their first season.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Michael Wilson. He flashed his multi-level route-running traits as a rookie in 2023, catching 38 passes for 568 yards and three scores. A smooth mover with the play speed to get down the field, Wilson is worth a late-round flier if he can lock down a spot as Murray’s No. 3 target behind Harrison and McBride. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Murray will finish in the top 10 in QBR. We witnessed Murray’s upside when he was his most accurate self in 2021 — ranking third in completion percentage over expectation at plus-3%, per NFL Next Gen Stats — on top of his usual mobility. Now, almost two years removed from his torn ACL, I think there’s a chance we see that version of Murray again. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 24
Chances to win division: 5.3%
Chances to make the playoffs: 16.6%
Projected wins: 7.1
Strength of schedule: 15th easiest

Biggest strength: An upgraded pass rush from the interior of the defensive line, courtesy of Christian Wilkins‘ arrival in free agency. With Maxx Crosby terrorizing offensive tackles on the outside — he is coming off a career-high 14.5 sacks — opposing offensive playcallers will have to pick their poison on whom to double-team on passing downs. Wilkins set a career high in sacks with 9.0 last season. — Paul Gutierrez

Biggest concern: Is QB Gardner Minshew, who has made a career coming off the bench in relief, ready for the spotlight as a season-opening starter? It’s only the second time in Minshew’s six-year career that he has opened a season as QB1, and he is 15-22 as a starter. Minshew got $15 million guaranteed in free agency and beat out incumbent Aidan O’Connell. Plus, Minshew has to build a quick rapport with receiver Davante Adams, who missed significant portions of the offseason program. — Gutierrez

Stat to know: The Wilkins-Crosby duo could be the first Raiders pairing to each record double-digit sacks since 2006, when Hall of Famer Warren Sapp (10.0) and Derrick Burgess (11.0) did it.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Tre Tucker. Let’s keep Tucker on the radar as a deep sleeper due to his explosive-play ability. Tucker averaged 17.4 YPC in 2023, and he also saw 10 carries. With increased usage this season, which includes manufactured touches (screens, fly sweeps), Tucker could potentially be a streaming target based on weekly matchups and offensive deployment. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: The Raiders will win five or fewer games this season. It’s very hard to buy in to a Minshew-Luke Getsy combination working out well for this offense. And just because the defense finished reasonably strong last season (10th in EPA per play allowed from Week 10 on) does not mean we should expect it to continue to play out that way, as defensive production is variable from season to season. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 25
Chances to win division: 3.6%
Chances to make the playoffs: 14.1%
Projected wins: 6.8
Strength of schedule: Fifth hardest

Biggest strength: With the exception of QB, the Vikings probably have their best roster since GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O’Connell arrived in 2022. RB Aaron Jones, who can produce inside the tackles and has elite receiving skills, is a perfect addition. Three new edge players — Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner — can help replace the departed Danielle Hunter. And the addition of two-time All-Pro Stephon Gilmore should go a long way toward mitigating losses at CB. — Kevin Seifert

Biggest concern: Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy‘s season-ending knee injury leaves their 2024 hopes on the shoulders of Sam Darnold. In camp, the 2018 No. 3 overall pick showed signs of promise and developed a rapport with WR Justin Jefferson. But Darnold has 70 turnovers since entering the NFL (T-10th most), despite playing in 66 of a possible 99 games. He was a good option to hold down the offense until McCarthy was ready. It remains to be seen what happens over a full season. — Seifert

Stat to know: A season removed from setting an NFL record in 2022 in one-score games won (11-0), the Vikings went 6-8 last season in 14 one-score games.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: QB Darnold. The quarterback has played for four different teams the past four seasons, and his career numbers don’t point to fantasy success in 2024 (63 TDs, 56 INTs). But there is some value here as a deeper-league QB2 in superflex formats, or as a potential matchup-based streaming option, given the pass-heavy tendencies of the Vikings’ offense. With a top-tier volume target in Jefferson, and a schemed route tree that creates open voids off play-action, Darnold will at least be put in a position to produce numbers. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Darnold’s seventh season will not be the charm. Not really, anyway. Darnold will finish higher in QBR than he ever has before when qualifying (25th) but won’t crack the top 20 in the metric. While playing in the O’Connell offense will help Darnold’s numbers, his weak track record is simply too long. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 26
Chances to win division: 18.6%
Chances to make the playoffs: 29.5%
Projected wins: 7.7
Strength of schedule: Third easiest

Biggest strength: The Saints overhauled their offensive staff and scheme in the offseason, bringing in new OC Klint Kubiak. That means Kubiak and QB Derek Carr worked together all spring and summer to tailor the offense to Carr’s strengths. The Saints struggled in the red zone to start last season, but this will be a completely new look in 2024. Additionally, Carr now has a year under his belt with RB Alvin Kamara, WR Chris Olave and WR Rashid Shaheed. — Katherine Terrell

Biggest concern: The Saints’ O-line had issues last season that led to Carr getting hurt early on, and those problems haven’t been completely fixed. RT Ryan Ramczyk is out for the season, and Trevor Penning, who was benched for his performance at left tackle last season, is now potentially the guy to replace him. The Saints are starting rookie Taliese Fuaga at LT, and left guard remains a question mark going into September. — Terrell

Stat to know: Carr led the NFL in Total QBR (85.5) and passing TDs (12) in the last four weeks of the season, with the Saints winning three of those four games to finish with nine victories. However, eight of the Saints’ nine wins came against teams with sub-.500 records. New Orleans went 1-4 against teams with winning records.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Shaheed. Olave is the clear No. 1 in New Orleans, but Shaheed has the vertical speed, plus the catch-and-run ability, to post breakout games for the Saints. In 2023, Shaheed averaged 15.6 YPC and logged five touchdown receptions, while totaling four games with 18 or more fantasy points. You can keep Shaheed on the radar as a late-round boom-or-bust target. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Chase Young will start the season hot and have at least 7.0 sacks by the NFL trade deadline … only for him to be dealt for a second straight year, as the Saints will be out of contention by then. Young finished 15th in pass rush win rate (19%) at edge last season and will be further removed from the injuries that derailed his 2021 and 2022 seasons. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 27
Chances to win division: 5.4%
Chances to make the playoffs: 10.0%
Projected wins: 6.4
Strength of schedule: Sixth hardest

Biggest strength: New DC Dennard Wilson’s aggressive scheme will benefit the secondary by using more press coverage. The secondary is also where the team has seen the biggest influx of talent. Tennessee signed CB Chidobe Awuzie and S Quandre Diggs to start. S Jamal Adams is another addition. Then they traded for L’Jarius Sneed, one of the top cornerbacks in the league. The Titans had an NFL-worst six interceptions last season. Wilson’s Ravens secondary was second in the league with 18 interceptions in 2023. — Turron Davenport

Biggest concern: The starting right side of the O-line has sorted itself out, but not through an outright competition. Veteran free agent Saahdiq Charles was getting first-team reps over Dillon Radunz before retiring abruptly in July. So Radunz, a 2022 second-round pick, got most of the first-team reps by default. He’s the starter. Nicholas Petit-Frere came off PUP and immediately took over at right tackle after 2023 UDFA John Ojukwu and last season’s fifth-round pick Jaelyn Duncan “competed” for the spot. — Davenport

Stat to know: According to ESPN Analytics/NFL Next Gen Stats, 47 of the Titans’ 64 sacks allowed in 2023 were attributed to their offensive tackles, the most in the NFL.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: TE Chigoziem Okonkwo. He was a potential breakout candidate in 2023, but despite catching 54 passes for 528 yards he scored only one touchdown. If Okonkwo can get more looks in scoring position from second-year quarterback Will Levis, while also using his seam-stretching ability to create explosive plays inside the numbers, he provides excellent value at his ADP around TE20. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Running back Tony Pollard will accumulate at least 75 rush yards over expectation (RYOE), per NFL Next Gen Stats. Pollard was a star in the metric before last season, recording 103 and 226 RYOE in 2021 and 2022, respectively, before falling off hard to a minus-39 last year. While I’m normally one to bet against running backs after a poor season because of how quickly they age, Pollard was likely still hampered by ankle surgery from the previous January. I think he bounces back in 2024, especially behind a Bill Callahan-coached offensive line. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 28
Chances to win division: 2.7%
Chances to make the playoffs: 12.5%
Projected wins: 6.7
Strength of schedule: 11th easiest

Biggest strength: Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels‘ potential — paired with a turned-over roster and new coaching staff under Dan Quinn that has created renewed energy. Daniels’ electric ability and accurate passing provide hope. Washington’s more creative defensive pressures, and a less complex coverage scheme, should elevate a defense that ranked last in points and yards allowed in 2023. Also, the Commanders will use the run game more than last season when it ranked last in attempts. — John Keim

Biggest concern: The Commanders’ roster faces plenty of questions. CBs Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and Benjamin St-Juste must improve from last season. Their camp showing was spotty. The Commanders’ offensive line, with three new starters, must prove it has enough cohesion and talent to protect Daniels and open holes in the run game. Can veterans such as TE Zach Ertz and RB Austin Ekeler provide enough consistency on offense to offset the lack of proven receiver talent beyond Terry McLaurin? — Keim

Stat to know: The Commanders lacked quarterback stability under former coach Ron Rivera. Daniels and Quinn will look to improve a unit that, since 2020, ranked 30th in total QBR (40.7), threw the most interceptions (68), allowed the second-most sacks (206) and started eight different QBs.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Luke McCaffrey. With the Commanders trading wide receiver Jahan Dotson to the Eagles, McCaffrey will play a featured role as the slot receiver for Daniels. McCaffrey logged 68 receptions and 12 touchdowns during his final season at Rice. He can work the heavy traffic areas of the field, and he has the ball skills to win on contested throws. McCaffrey has lower-tier WR3 upside in deeper formats. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: The Commanders will trade defensive tackle Jonathan Allen before the deadline. I don’t expect the Commanders to contend this season, and when the time comes, they’ll part with Allen (who turns 30 in January) in exchange for assets to support Daniels in the long term. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 29
Chances to win division: 2.8%
Chances to make the playoffs: 12.8%
Projected wins: 6.7
Strength of schedule: 14th easiest

Biggest strength: The Giants finally appear to have their WR1 in No. 6 overall pick Malik Nabers and an experienced offensive line that should be improved. New York has four offensive linemen (LT Andrew Thomas, LG Jon Runyan, RG Greg Van Roten and RT Jermaine Eluemunor) who finished above average or better in pass block win rate at their respective positions last season. This gives their offense — and subsequently QB Daniel Jones — a chance. — Jordan Raanan

Biggest concern: The secondary is young and unproven. It’s possible the Giants start an entire group that is 25 years or younger, including two rookies, Tyler Nubin at safety and Dru Phillips as the slot cornerback. A lot of pressure is on last year’s first-round pick, Deonte Banks, to be a shutdown corner after a rookie season when he allowed 551 yards and four touchdowns as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Is this all asking too much? — Raanan

Stat to know: Despite the second-highest blitz rate (44%) in the league last season, the Giants finished with 34 sacks, tied for 28th in the NFL. The last time New York had multiple players with double-digit sacks was 2010.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR Jalin Hyatt. He has the vertical separation speed to create over the top, as he averaged 16.2 YPC last season, while 30.4% of his receptions went for 20 yards or more. If Hyatt can expand his route tree, adding more underneath elements, he could have deeper-league value as the No. 3 option for Jones. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: An improved Giants offensive line will give Jones a chance to make plays. Since 2020, the best finish the Giants have had in pass block win rate is 24th. But with Thomas at left tackle and Eluemunor at right tackle — along with the addition of Runyan at guard — this line could be passable. Not amazing, but passable with a top-20 ranking in pass block win rate. I think Jones would sign up for that right now. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 30
Chances to win division: 1.4%
Chances to make the playoffs: 4.9%
Projected wins: 5.8
Strength of schedule: 16th easiest

Biggest strength: A youth movement. Coach Sean Payton is guiding a younger team without the weight of history or expectations. He has told them “young and hungry is a good thing.” If the Broncos have remotely the same kind of good injury fortune they had last season, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix can lead the team’s growth to be a little ahead of schedule, the Broncos could push themselves above .500 and see where that takes them. — Jeff Legwold

Biggest concern: The dead money hit — $85 million over two seasons — to move on from Russell Wilson at quarterback can be seen all over a roster where proven depth is a concern, especially the offensive line and at safety and inside linebacker. They also reside in the AFC West, where Patrick Mahomes has everybody else playing for a wild-card spot each season. The Broncos can’t think about competing in the AFC until they can compete in their own division. — Legwold

Stat to know: The Broncos have missed the postseason for eight straight seasons, last making the playoffs when they won Super Bowl 50. The drought, which is the second-longest active streak in the league, is also the longest ever for any team immediately after a Super Bowl championship.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Jaleel McLaughlin. Starter Javonte Williams has looked powerful and explosive this preseason, but the 5-foot-8, 187-pound McLaughlin adds a different element to Payton’s offense due to his decisive running style and sudden speed. McLaughlin averaged 5.4 YPC last season, while catching 31 of 35 targets. If McLaughlin can establish a more defined role, especially on third downs, then he has value in deeper PPR formats. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Courtland Sutton will reach 1,000 receiving yards. Route running is the receiver skill I place the most emphasis on and Sutton has demonstrated an ability to get open, even if it hasn’t translated into a ton of yards over the past couple of seasons. In 2023, Sutton had an open score of 79, the 10th best among all wide receivers. It wasn’t a fluke, because he posted a 78 the season before. With perhaps better quarterback play, a higher level of production from Sutton can be unlocked. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 31
Chances to win division: 0.5%
Chances to make the playoffs: 1.6%
Projected wins: 4.9
Strength of schedule: Hardest

Biggest strength: Rookie quarterback Drake Maye. The No. 3 overall pick showed flashes of promise in training camp and the preseason, with head coach Jerod Mayo saying, “He’s absolutely getting better.” Maye’s best pass was an incompletion — a deep pass in the second preseason game that rookie receiver Javon Baker dropped. Veteran Jacoby Brissett will start Week 1, and it’s not clear yet when Maye will get his turn for the Patriots. — Mike Reiss

Biggest concern: Offensive line. The one time the line went against starting-caliber players — versus the Eagles in a joint practice — it looked like a tidal wave at times. Maye started by completing his first nine passes in competitive drills (first 7-on-7, then 11-on-11) before things took a hard turn when protection broke down and receivers didn’t uncover quickly enough. — Reiss

Stat to know: Patriots quarterbacks have the third-worst touchdown-to-interception ratio, fourth-worst QBR and sixth-fewest passing yards per game since Tom Brady left in 2020.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: WR DeMario Douglas. A slot target with lateral juice and stop/start speed, Douglas had five games of double-digit fantasy production during his rookie season in 2023. Fantasy managers will need Douglas to see more looks in scoring position (only three end zone targets last season), but he has the route traits to develop as a higher-volume target in his second pro season. He is worth a late-round flier in PPR formats. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Maye will be a top-14 fantasy quarterback in terms of points per game played. Considering the value of a mobile quarterback in fantasy — Maye ranked 23rd out of 128 FBS quarterbacks in scramble rate last year — I think Maye is being underdrafted. At some point, he’s going to be on the field. And when he gets there, his team is probably going to be playing from behind and relying on him to make throws and create plays with his legs. — Walder

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FPI’s overall ranking: No. 32
Chances to win division: 2.7%
Chances to make the playoffs: 4.5%
Projected wins: 5.4
Strength of schedule: Fourth easiest

Biggest strength: A new interior offensive line and better weapons. Quarterback Bryce Young didn’t stand a chance as a rookie behind a line that gave up 62 sacks, 35 from the interior. The additions of guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis were huge. Young didn’t have receivers who could create separation last season. Trading for Diontae Johnson and drafting Xavier Legette provided an immediate upgrade. Tying it all together is new head coach Dave Canales, known for turning quarterbacks around. — David Newton

Biggest concern: Lack of a pass rush and depth at corner. Signing 31-year-old OLB Jadeveon Clowney was big, but there’s no proven sack threat opposite him until free agent addition D.J. Wonnum (quadriceps) returns, and there is no indication of when that might be. The lack of a rush is magnified by the lack of a proven corner opposite Jaycee Horn, who has played only 22 games in his first three seasons due to injuries. — Newton

Stat to know: Clowney, a three-time Pro Bowl selection, ranked second on the Ravens with 9.5 sacks last season, tying his career high set in 2017. He also had the fifth-best pass rush win rate in the NFL in 2023.

Fantasy sleeper candidate: RB Chuba Hubbard. The Panthers used a second-round pick to draft running back Jonathon Brooks, but the rookie will miss at least the first four games while recovering from a November ACL injury. That opens the door for Hubbard to take on a potential lead role early in the season. A volume grinder who can catch the ball as an underneath outlet, Hubbard rushed for 902 yards in 2023 while logging 39 receptions. — Bowen

Bold prediction for 2024: Young will finish in the top 18 in QBR. This is partly a show of blind faith in Canales — who was quite successful in working with Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith — plus the addition of Johnson, who I’m a big believer in due to his route running. But Young can get there, even after his dismal rookie season. — Walder

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