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Tom Hamilton, Senior Writer
Be honest: Which of you had this as the quarterfinal lineup when the draw was made? Who had neither Novak Djokovic nor Carlos Alcaraz featured in the final eight on the men’s side? And who had Coco Gauff bowing out before the quarterfinals of the women’s singles, complete with 60 unforced errors against Emma Navarro?
In this most unpredictable of US Opens, we try to break down who the remaining favorites are.
Women’s singles
Sabalenka is in good company. She’s now in her fourth straight US Open quarterfinal — the first woman to achieve that feat since Serena Williams’ run from 2011 to 2016. In the process, she became the sixth women’s player since 2000 to reach eight straight Slam quarterfinals. She’s got the experience and the form to take down the entire tournament.
To date, her best finish in New York was reaching the final last year where she ran into Gauff, but she’s best placed to win the whole thing this time around. She has only dropped one set on her way to the quarters, having seen off Priscilla Hon, Lucia Bronzetti, Ekaterina Alexandrova in three and then Elise Mertens in straight sets in the fourth round.
“I just don’t want to leave early here, you know,” Sabalenka said after defeating Mertens. “I just want to stay as long as I can and enjoy this beautiful court, beautiful atmosphere.”
Swiatek has spent her time in New York trying to stay cool in front of superstars. Before her third-round win over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Serena Williams was in the building and bumped into the current world No.1.
“I’m happy that she’s following tennis and my game because she told me that she’s cheering for me,” Swiatek said after dispatching Pavlyuchenkova 6-4, 6-2. “It’s always nice to hear that from somebody like Serena.”
Swiatek is already one of the greats of the game, with five Slams to her name. Four of those have come on Parisian clay, but the other was at Flushing Meadows in 2022. Swiatek is playing well in New York. After her turbulent Olympics — where she went in as favorite and ended up with bronze — she’s building nicely in New York. So far she’s seen off Kamilla Rakhimova, Ena Shibahara, Pavlyuchenkova and Liudmila Samsonova — the latter in straight sets. It was in that match where she was starstruck for the second time this fortnight after spotting actor Jason Sudeikis in the crowd.
“I try to avoid looking at the screens, but I saw him tonight when I was looking at the chair umpire,” she said. “I wanted to stay focused and I hope he appreciates my mentality, because this is what Ted Lasso is all about.” She faces Jessica Pegula in the quarterfinals. The omens are good for Swiatek, as she has won six of their nine meetings and will go into that as favorite.
Muchova will head into her quarterfinal with Beatriz Haddad Maia — she of the infamous double bounce in the fourth round — as favorite. And she knows what it takes to reach a Slam final, having got to that stage at Roland Garros last year only to run into a formidable Swiatek-sized wall. Muchova’s fourth-round match against Jasmine Paolini was intriguing, given the Italian’s remarkable 2024 where she reached the finals of both Roland Garros and Wimbledon. But Muchova made light work of Paolini, winning 6-3, 6-3. Muchova holds a 3-0 record over Haddad Maia and came into this tournament fresh, having only one previous tournament on a hard court in Cincinnati. “Playing a few matches, I feel like I’m building up the game. I feel better each day on court. “I’m in the quarters, and I’m really grateful for that, and we’ll see.”
Home hope: Jessica Pegula
Having said all that about Swiatek being favorite for this clash, Flushing Meadows can do wonderful things for home favorites. They roared Gauff home last year, and how brilliant it would be for Pegula to follow in her footsteps? She came into the US Open in outstanding form, having won in Toronto and reaching the final in Cincinnati, where she lost to Sabalenka. She hasn’t yet dropped a set at the US Open — including being the one to send Shelby Rogers into retirement in the opening round — and is desperate to end her run losing in six straight Slam quarterfinals. Seventh time lucky? Well she’s certainly building a compelling case. Against Diana Shnaider in the fourth round, she hit 22 winners, and was resilient in saving seven of nine break points. So why couldn’t it be Pegula winning the whole thing?
“It depends on the day how you’re feeling, how you’re playing, what happens once you get out there,” Pegula said, ahead of her match with Swiatek. “I don’t know how I’m going to feel until I’m literally first game playing.”
Men’s singles
Sinner has stayed focused amid the maelstrom. While the men’s singles draw has descended into chaos, Sinner is one of the few reliable constants. But he came into this Slam fielding questions over the announcement of his two positive tests for a banned substance in March. That resulted in criticism from current and past pros, and questions over the sport’s doping policies. Despite all that, he’s managed to progress through the draw. He’s aware of the pitfalls of losing concentration.
“Whenever you drop a little bit of your level — if it’s mental, if it’s tennis-wise or physical — at the end, it has a huge impact on the result,” Sinner said after his third-round win over Christopher O’Connell.
His first two rounds saw him get through MacKenzie McDonald in four sets, then see off Alex Michelsen in three. After O’Connell, he faced home favorite Tommy Paul, whom he beat in straight sets. And as for the quarters? Well, it’s 2021 champion Daniil Medvedev. Sinner will be the favorite, and he is the only player on the men’s side to reach the quarterfinal of all four Slams this year, but he’ll have their last meeting at the front of his mind.
“It’s going to be a lot of rallies, so hopefully I’ll be ready physically,” Sinner said. “It’s going to be a physical match, also a mental match. I won in Australia, he then won in Wimbledon. That was five sets. So hopefully it’s going to be a good match.”
Zverev is no stranger to late-finishing matches, as he holds that specific record from 2022 when his victory over Jenson Brooksby at the Abierto Mexico tournament concluded at 4:55 a.m., but seeing his third-round match against Tomas Martin Etcheverry go until 2:35 a.m. was hardly ideal. Yet he managed to bounce back and come through his fourth-round match in four sets against Brandon Nakashima to book his spot in the quarters against Taylor Fritz.
He’ll have to overcome the partisan crowd Tuesday if he is to come through that, but Zverev has been in brilliant form this year, having reached the final of Roland Garros and the semifinals of the Australian Open. He has beef with Fritz, so it could get spicy. Zverev was critical of the noise coming from Fritz’s box when the American defeated him in the round of 16 at Wimbledon this year, and they shared a tense moment at the net. Zverev has reached two Slam finals — the 2024 French Open and 2020 US Open finals — and is desperate to get over the line.
“I just need to win one more set than the last two times in the final. I am doing everything I can,” Zverev said. “Everything else is out of my power; I am trying my best and hopefully it is going to be enough at some point in my career.”
Medvedev knows what it takes to win this tournament, having triumphed in 2021. He holds bragging rights over Sinner, as he won the last time they met at Wimbledon, and he has a 7-5 record against him overall. But it’s Sinner who’s had the better of this rivalry in recent times. Prior to that meeting on grass, Sinner won the previous five clashes, including the final of the Australian Open.
“I will try to think more about Wimbledon than Australian Open,” Medvedev said after demolishing Nuno Borges 6-0, 6-1, 6-3 in just 1:51.
There’s an argument that whoever wins this quarterfinal will go on to win the tournament. So far Medvedev’s 2024 US Open has seen him drop one set — in the opener against Dusan Lajovic — and then it was straightforward against Fabian Marozsan, Flavio Cobolli and Borges. But Sinner will be a far sterner task.
“I’ve had unbelievable battles with Jannik,” Medvedev said. “It will be very physical for both of us.”
Home hope: Taylor Fritz
Frances Tiafoe is very much in the mix, and he has a great chance of getting past Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals, but Fritz is perhaps just a touch better primed to win the whole thing. Fritz reached the quarterfinals of both the Australian Open and Wimbledon this year and is desperate to go one further against Zverev.
Fritz has looked rattled at times this fortnight, frustration bubbling over — like in his four-set win over Casper Ruud — but he is playing brilliantly and will back himself to get past Zverev. He’s also seen how the draw has played out. While Alcaraz and Djokovic have bowed out, he’s got past Camilo Ugo, Matteo Berrettini, Francisco Comesana and Ruud and wants to keep his journey going.
“[With] the draw, it’s impossible to not know that there’s more of an opportunity with how the draw has opened up,” Fritz said. “It’s still the same as it’s been for me. Take it one match at a time. Worry about the person that’s in front of me, and we’ll go from there. The success in slams has been nice, but I am a little bit sick of just making it to the quarterfinals, and I definitely want to go further.”
Outside shot: Jack Draper
There’s something about young Brits and the US Open. Back in 2021 it was Emma Raducanu who went from qualifier to winning the women’s singles. While Jack Draper’s trajectory is by no means as outlandish — he won the Stuttgart Open, and beat Carlos Alcaraz at Queen’s this year — Draper has been earmarked as a future Slam-challenger in British tennis for years. Draper, 22, has managed to marry his incredible ability with a durable body — thanks to the work of Steve Kotze and Will Herbert — and the two are working brilliantly in tandem. As for his feat of reaching the men’s quarterfinals in New York? It’s the first since a certain Sir Andy Murray managed that in 2016.
“To follow in Andy’s footsteps and make the quarterfinals here it’s a big achievement for me,” Draper said after his fourth-round win over Tomas Machac. “But I think I’ve just got to keep on going because I know that there’s still room for improvement and still room to hopefully go further in the tournament. I am really, really proud of that achievement and hopefully I can do more.”
Draper faces Alex De Minaur in the quarterfinals, and ESPN’s Brad Gilbert has called the young Brit a “legitimate threat” to win the whole thing.