-
Timothy Bradley Jr.
Terence Crawford moves up in weight once again Saturday night, this time to take on WBA junior middleweight champion Israil Madrimov at BMO Stadium in Los Angeles. The vacant WBO interim title will also be on the line. This matchup epitomizes the classic formula of a pound-for-pound king moving up in weight to take on a bigger challenge. Crawford (40-0, 31 KOs), a three-division world champion, has dominated several divisions and become undisputed champion in two weight classes, a feat achieved by only two others, Oleksander Usyk and Claressa Shields, in the four-belt era.
Madrimov, 29, of Uzbekistan, has had an impressive career as well. While he has had only 11 fights as a professional, he was an outstanding amateur with two victories over switch-hitting Arlen Lopez, a two-time Olympic gold medalist for Cuba (2016 and 2020). That experience could help Madrimov in this fight, as Crawford is one of the best switch-hitters in boxing.
Given Crawford’s elite track record, it’s tempting to predict a TKO victory for him. But the essence of boxing lies in its unpredictability. Crawford’s move to yet another new weight class comes against a tough power puncher. Anything can happen when two devastating punchers meet inside the ropes.
Will Crawford’s power, counterpunching and experience be too much for Madrimov? Can Madrimov’s disciplined style force Crawford to make mistakes? Here’s a look at how the junior middleweight matchup could play out.
The matchup
Crawford first moved from 135 to 140 pounds in 2015 to challenge Thomas Dulorme, a formidable puncher, for the vacant WBO junior welterweight world title. Despite Dulorme being 22-1 record with 13 knockouts at the time, and moving down from 147 pounds for the bout, Crawford outsmarted and dismantled him, stopping him by TKO in the sixth-round.
After knocking out Julius Indongo in three rounds to unify all the titles at junior welterweight in 2017, Crawford made another daring transition, moving up to 147 pounds to target Jeff Horn, the newly crowned welterweight champion from Australia. Horn was fresh off his controversial win against the legendary Manny Pacquiao, in which Pacquiao was noticeably outweighed on fight night, dominated in close range and battered throughout the bout. Many boxing pundits thought Horn would be too much for Crawford for his debut as a welterweight, but Crawford methodically exposed and exploited the weaknesses in Horn’s game, using his aggression against him, breaking him down physically and mentally before securing a ninth-round TKO victory.
There seems to be a pattern with each move in weight class for Crawford: He immediately seeks world champions and/or fights against the division’s most aggressive, dangerous puncher. It’s like he looks for the biggest and toughest opponent to send a message to any potential future threats. But that doesn’t come without risk. One mistake could lead to Crawford being knocked out. Should he lose to Madrimov, a fighter with only 11 professional fights, the critics would quickly label Crawford overrated, and his pound-for-pound status would be affected.
What Madrimov does well
Growing up, Madrimov admired fighters such as Roy Jones Jr., Kostya Tszyu, Emmanuel “The Drunken Master” Augustus and his all-time favorite, Gennadiy “GGG” Golovkin. These influences are evident in his creative approach within the ropes, his ability to switch stances and his relentless but calm offensive gear shifts. From Augustus, he learned relaxation and savvy footwork with angles. Tszyu’s precise accuracy in combinations became a staple in Madrimov’s fighting style, while GGG’s punching power and conviction behind a stiff jab are also prominent in his arsenal. Madrimov’s hand speed and ability to vary power while repositioning his attack reflect the influence of Jones.
Now, under the tutelage of trainer Joel Diaz, Madrimov follows a comprehensive system that emphasizes a low-high offensive approach with minimal defensive risk to start the fight. I call this the breakdown phase. During this phase, more punches are directed towards the body (stab jabs and right crosses), which is the larger target on an opponent.
The second phase involves the element of surprise — single power punches to the head, disguised off a low feint, capitalizing on the opponent’s focus on protecting their body. Then comes the last phase: to take over the fight. All cards have been dealt by now, meaning you should know your opponent’s game plan and various approaches. In other words, you should be familiar with the chaos.
Madrimov is an intelligent fighter, not just big (5-foot-8) and strong enough to punish his foes. But more so, he’s a bricklayer, placing his punches meticulously until the job is completed. And that style could be key against Crawford, who has been inactive since his July 29, 2023, victory against Errol Spence Jr. With only two fights since November 2021, Crawford’s timing could be off. As he prepares to face Madrimov, a year will have passed since his last fight. Let’s not forget Crawford is also 36 years old.
In contrast, Madrimov is coming off a March TKO victory against Magomed Kurbanov to secure the title, a fight in which he showed dominance, gaining confidence and sharpness. The consistent conditioning from back-to-back training camps may gave Madrimov a physical and mental edge, as a fighter’s sharpness often stems from activity. Madrimov is likely to be at his peak in terms of fitness, timing and overall readiness. Crawford’s disciplined daily training routine has helped him develop physical and mental endurance, but the intensity of in-fight activity is paramount. Things such as getting hit with 10-ounce gloves can be impossible to replicate in training. And Crawford is known for getting hit flush before getting into his rhythm.
Understanding Crawford’s game
Crawford is a master rhythm-based fighter, seamlessly adapting to the flow of the fight and his opponent’s strategy. A natural counterpuncher, he transitions smoothly between offense and defense, striking fast and with incredible accuracy. His fundamental approach is essential to his success. Crawford begins his fights by establishing his jab to gauge range, whether in a lefty or righty stance. In the early rounds, he carefully studies his opponent’s flaws and game plan, adjusting to the hand speed and tendencies. He measures the opponent’s power by catching punches on his gloves and assesses his strength through clinching and resisting control.
Crawford is a complete fighter, a rarity in the sport. Once he identifies his opponent’s weaknesses, it’s game over. He starts setting traps and systematically dismantles his adversary while maintaining defensive control. Crawford can land a quality punch anytime he chooses. When stepping up to attack, his control and inside fighting are among the best in boxing, using guard pins (to disable the use of an opponent’s hand by blocking it with the forearm or glove), guard manipulation, frames and bumps to create space and break his opponent’s posture and positioning.
Crawford’s ability to shorten his punches despite his 74-inch reach is remarkable. Opponents who try to pressure him quickly discover he is one of the best backfoot counterpunchers in the sport. He possesses a lethal left uppercut and devastating check right hooks from the southpaw stance, often delivered off a step back or pull counter (pulling back while throwing a punch). He has a counter cross over the jab to nullify a foe’s setups from orthodox position.
Over the years, Crawford has also honed a countering system called the catch-and-shoot offense, a technique established by the late boxing coach Kenny Weldon and traditionally known as the “react.” It involves catching incoming punches and returning fire with the same hand that blocked the shot. When opponents attempt to pressure Crawford inside with heavy-handed offense, Crawford neutralizes their approach with this technique. He doesn’t crack under pressure.
Conversely, if an opponent tries to move away, Crawford will cut off the ring and hunt him down. He is willing to fight fire with fire to gain a psychological advantage by outdoing opponents in their own strengths. For example, Spence is a pressure fighter, and Crawford began to walk him down, pushing him back and constricting Spence’s strength while rerouting his plan. Crawford’s counters are exceptional from either stance, making him an prodigious challenge for Madrimov.
How the fight could play out
Madrimov is a tricky and well-schooled fighter with unorthodox technique and an Eastern European style of rhythm. He often keeps his hands low and moves them rhythmically at a distance, allowing him to disguise his offensive attacks, move on angles and create an illusion of elusiveness. These maneuvers can look dazzling but leave holes in his defense, with slow-to-react guards. Hand positioning matters for quick, efficient responses, and his hand placement makes him vulnerable to counters. Madrimov often leans forward with his chin tucked, positioning his head above his lead knee, which presents jabbing opportunities for Crawford.
Crawford is likely to fight predominantly from the southpaw stance, forcing Madrimov to reach with his offense and unintentionally shorten the distance between Crawford’s jab and his head. Once Madrimov lunges, Crawford can exploit this with counters, especially uppercuts. Madrimov tends to become inactive under pressure, often resorting to a high guard without throwing many punches in return. That will allow Crawford to control the fight and set traps, particularly the catch-and-shoot.
Madrimov has struggled against athletic southpaws. Abilkham Amankul and Eumir Marcial troubled him in the amateurs. As a professional, he went the distance against southpaw Raphael Igbokwe, whose record was 16-3 with 7 KOs. Madrimov’s footwork, crucial against a southpaw, can be sloppy, opening more opportunities. When Crawford switches to an orthodox stance, Madrimov can utilize his decent jab to the body, but it comes with the risk of getting countered by Crawford’s chopping right cross. Crawford’s main vulnerability is disengaging with both hands extended away from his head. If Madrimov can capitalize on this, perhaps with a level-changing feint followed by a hook left or right, he might catch and hurt Crawford and mount a surprise finish, shocking the world.
Who wins?
I expected this to be a tactical affair in the early rounds, with both fighters limiting mistakes. Each man possesses the power to hurt the other with a single punch. Crawford’s punching power has successfully transitioned from 135 to 147 pounds, and it’s likely to be just as effective at 154 pounds. I’m going with Crawford for the win, maybe even a late stoppage.