-
Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst
It’s never too soon to look ahead to next year’s NFL draft. Which prospects are the early candidates to be the No. 1 pick in 2025?
Caleb Williams was the consensus favorite last summer to be selected at the top of the draft in 2024, and nothing changed throughout the process; the Bears took the talented passer at No. 1 in April. But 2025 looks vastly different. There isn’t an overwhelming top-pick favorite among the signal-callers, and this group of defensive prospects is loaded at the top. In fact, it sort of reminds of the 2022 class when the top five picks were all defense. Quarterback has dominated the top of the draft, but defensive end (5) and offensive tackle (2) have also produced No. 1 selections over the past 25 classes.
Even though we’re more than nine months out from the draft, let’s take a run through the most likely candidates to go No. 1, including why each could make the leap and a way-too-early projected percentage chance for each to land at the top of the board. Let’s start with the QB that I had going No. 1 in my way-too-early mock draft from May.
Jump to a tier:
Serious contenders (5)
Potential risers (2)
Long shots (6)
SERIOUS CONTENDERS
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 20%
Why he could be the top pick: Beck is the most common name mentioned at the top of this class of signal-callers, but there are still some questions that he needs to answer heading into his second season as a full-time starter.
Beck finished last season with 3,941 passing yards, 24 touchdown throws and 6 interceptions. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, he’s a linear-built passer who wastes little time getting the ball out of his hand. His average of 2.38 seconds before the throw tied for the nation’s quickest release last season. He also finished with a 72.4% completion rate (fourth-best in FBS) and an 86 Total QBR (fifth), showing really good processing ability. However, Beck doesn’t make a ton of plays outside of structure, and his footwork is still a little inconsistent.
With Brock Bowers, Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint now in the NFL, Beck will be tasked with taking a significant leap in Year 2 with a lot of new and inexperienced playmakers around him. If Beck can answer the call and put up another big season, he could certainly emerge as QB1 in this class and end up the top pick for a quarterback-needy franchise.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: Williams enters this season as the No. 1 player on my board for the 2025 draft. Yes, it requires quite a bit of projection, but at 6-foot-5 and 265 pounds, the junior pass-rusher has enormous upside. And while he has nine sacks combined over the past two seasons, the stat sheet doesn’t tell the full story of how valuable he is to the Georgia defense.
Williams played more snaps at defensive tackle (162) than defensive end (148) or outside linebacker (54) in 2023, and he finished with 10 tackles for loss and 23 pressures. He has to be better with finishing plays, but he shows plenty of length and strength at the point of attack. I see the third-year edge rusher as an NFL-ready run-defender, evidenced by eight run stops last season. Williams reminds me of Travon Walker, the No. 1 pick in 2022.
He will transition into a full-time outside linebacker role this season, which should position him for an ascension in what’s considered to be a strong defensive line class. After turning 20 years old a month ago, Williams has the combination of size and movement skills to go early in the draft, but scouts want to see him take the next step as a pass-rusher by expanding his repertoire of moves and creativity with his hands.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 15%
Why he could be the top pick: At 6-foot-5 and 242 pounds, Pearce is an explosive threat off the edge. Last season, he had a 20.2% defensive pressure rate (third in FBS) and picked up 10 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss across 13 games for the Vols. His burst and first-step quickness are hardly ever matched, but his true playing weight and overall consistency against the run at the point of attack are two factors that evaluators will be watching closely next season.
“I thought he had a lot of [Brian] Burns to him when he was coming out of Florida State,” an AFC area scout said this summer while discussing Pearce.
1:44
Who are the favorites to be top pick in next year’s NFL draft?
Jordan Reid names outside linebacker James Pearce Jr. of Tennessee as his favorite to be the top pick in the 2025 NFL draft.
Tennessee hasn’t had a defensive player picked in the first round since 2017 (Derek Barnett). If Pearce can post big production again in 2024, he could be the next one for Tennessee — and he absolutely has a chance to go No. 1. The Volunteers haven’t had a top pick since Peyton Manning in 1998.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 12%
Why he could be the top pick: Sanders will without question be at the top of the list of the most discussed prospects in this class. After dominating the FCS ranks at Jackson State for two seasons, he transitioned to the the FBS last season and finished with 3,230 passing yards, 27 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions at Colorado. Sanders completed 69.3% of his passes in 2023, showing poise and accuracy when protected. And in high-pressure situations, he routinely rose to the occasion.
That said, Sanders and the Colorado offense had plenty of struggles in the second half of the season, as he was sacked an FBS-high 52 times in 2023. There’s plenty of blame to go around there, but he must learn to trust his internal clock and get the ball out on time more consistently. With a new scheme in place under Pat Shurmur, NFL teams will be tracking Sanders’ season closely. He still has plenty of questions to answer about his game and what he could bring in the pros.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 12%
Why he could be the top pick: Ewers came to Texas in 2022 with massive expectations and immediately took the starter reins. But an inconsistent 2023 season leaves him with a murky draft projection.
He closed last season with 3,479 passing yards, 22 touchdown throws and 6 interceptions. He’s an on-time and in-rhythm passer who can be a bit streaky, but he has a good arm and operates Steve Sarkisian’s offense well as a true distributor. We saw Ewers at his best in a crucial road win against Alabama. But on the flip side, the first half of the Oklahoma game exposed his flaws (even though he finished with 19 straight completions). I’d like to see him tighten up his decision-making and mechanics.
We’ve seen Sarkisian develop passers such as Tua Tagovailoa (2020) and Mac Jones (2021) into eventual first-round picks. And Ewers could be next, even pushing for top-pick status if he has a big third season. He will have to adjust to new playmakers around him, though, following the loss of his top four guys in Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Ja’Tavion Sanders and Jonathon Brooks. (Transfer receiver Isaiah Bond should help.)
I’m hearing primarily late-Day 2 or even early-Day 3 grades from scouts right now, but it’s early. And considering he’s my QB3, he has to be in consideration for the top pick if he can piece together a really good prove-it season. The decision to return to school was the right one for Ewers, and he now gains another year of needed experience and tries to build on his positive moments shown last season.
POTENTIAL RISERS
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 6%
Why he could be the top pick: Banks has been one of the more consistent linemen in the country. As the starter at left tackle since arriving on campus (1,788 total snaps), he has allowed only two sacks across two seasons.
At 6-foot-4 and 324 pounds, Banks is an overwhelming run-blocker, but it’s his movement skills that really set him apart from his counterparts in this class. His light feet can be a positive or a negative, though; while it allows him to stick on pass-rushers, he too often attempts to out-finess the opposition rather than trusting his technique. That gets him into trouble against more polished edge rushers.
Texas hasn’t had an offensive lineman drafted in the first round since Leonard Davis (2001) and Mike Williams (2002) were drafted in back-to-back years more than two decades ago. Both were top-five picks, but Banks has a chance to go even earlier.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 6%
Why he could be the top pick: Campbell will likely be right alongside Banks in the offensive tackle discussion throughout the pre-draft process. At 6-foot-6 and 320 pounds, he is a bigger prospect, though.
With 26 career starts (1,625 snaps), Campbell has been the starter since arriving in Baton Rouge. Playing strictly as a left tackle, he didn’t allow any sacks last season. He’s a true technician at the position, so there isn’t much flash to his game. Campbell just continuously stacks wins in pass protection, showcasing plenty of physical ability as a run-blocker and completely shutting down his matchups week in and week out.
His length will be a question mark, as longer and more sudden edge rushers (guys such as Jared Verse and Dallas Turner) have given him some issues. But most evaluators I’ve spoken with view him as a tackle in the pros, at least right now.
LONG SHOTS
The ‘out-of-nowhere’ quarterback
Seemingly every season, a quarterback exceeds expectations and takes the college football world by storm to rise up the draft board and challenge for the top pick. Most recently, Anthony Richardson (2023) and Jayden Daniels (2024) fit the bill; both were viewed as Day 3 prospects but developed into top-five picks. Who could be next?
-
Riley Leonard, Notre Dame (2% chance to go No. 1): One of the more obvious candidates, Leonard is now under the tutelage of Mike Denbrock — who helped transform Daniels into the No. 2 pick while he was at LSU. Leonard has a smooth release and good mobility but an average arm.
-
Conner Weigman, Texas A&M (2% chance): Another name mentioned by scouts this summer, Weigman has the arm to test throwing windows and push the ball down the field. However, his starter sample size is small, as he has only started eight career games over two seasons.
-
Cameron Ward, Miami (1% chance): Ward transferred to Miami this year from Washington State, and he shows the creativity to make things happen outside of structure. But while he has a live arm, he has to make better decisions going downfield.
-
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (1% chance): After serving as Daniels’ backup the past two seasons, Nussmeier takes over the starter gig for LSU. He has good accuracy and touch down the field.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 2%
Why he could be the top pick: We’ve never seen a cornerback being selected at the top of the draft (common draft era, since 1967). So yeah, the odds are extremely stacked against Johnson. But if there were a CB who could challenge for that feat, he’d be a strong contender. In 2022, Derek Stingley Jr. and Sauce Gardner were picked with back-to-back selections at Nos. 3 and 4. Johnson is that caliber of corner prospect.
At 6-foot-2 and 202 pounds, Johnson has fluid hips, great ball skills and the ability to play a variety of different coverages. Last season, he only allowed 14 catches into his coverage (0 TDs) while also adding four interceptions (7 total over two seasons). Plus, few cornerbacks come more battle-tested, as Johnson matched up against Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze in 2023.
“I don’t know if it’s the size, jersey number or what. The kid looks like a direct replica of [Pat] Surtain coming out of Alabama,” an NFC scouting director said. “We’ll see what he runs, but he has all of the tools to be special.”
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 2%
Why he could be the top pick: Two-way players are few and far between in college football. But Hunter makes a profound impact as a cornerback and then turns around and does the same thing as a wide receiver. Chris Gamble (Ohio State) and Champ Bailey (Georgia) are the only other recent comparables to Hunter in that sense. Last season, Hunter became the first FBS player since Bailey to have at least 40 catches on offense and three interceptions on defense.
But is Hunter a WR or a CB in the pros? That will be the biggest question surrounding his projection. He played in at least 100 snaps in seven different games last season, displaying miraculous endurance. But it’s also probably not sustainable in the future. He has an innate feel for finding the ball no matter if he’s on offense or defense. I believe Hunter’s best position is at cornerback, but he will have two separate grades — one at each position — for most teams.
“I freaking love the dude as a prospect,” an AFC national scouting director said. “All he wants to do is impact the game in as many ways as possible and never complains one bit.”