The second leg of the Triple Crown begins Saturday night at Pimlico Race Track in Baltimore with the 149th running of the Preakness Stakes. The Preakness is the shortest distance of the three Triple Crown races at 10 furlongs (3¹⁄₁₆ miles), meaning speed plays a huge factor in handicapping.
The eight-horse field is much smaller than the Kentucky Derby (20) and the weather report will also be important to monitor, with a 60% chance of rain on Saturday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service. Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan will look to become the first horse since Justify in 2018 to win both the Derby and the Preakness in the same year.
Bob Baffert-trained Muth opened as the 8-5 morning-line favorite to win the Preakness but was scratched early Wednesday because of a fever. Mystik Dan opened as the second choice (5-2) and there are plenty of other horses set to contend in Baltimore.
Here is everything you need to know to bet on the 149th Preakness Stakes.
Breaking down the contenders
4. Muth (SCR)
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Preakness favorite Muth scratched after spiking fever
Check out the facts and figures behind the Preakness after betting favorite Muth is scratched from the race.
Muth was scratched Wednesday morning because of a fever. According to trainer Baffert, Muth had a 103-degree temperature and will be on antibiotics for the next week. “We are sick about this,” Baffert told reporters Wednesday. “The horse had been doing well. But we have to do what’s right by the horse.”
Muth was the best horse in this race and would have been favored in the Kentucky Derby had Baffert not been banned from Churchill Downs. Muth’s absence in the race leaves lots of opportunity for the remaining field and will likely shifts the odds as post time approaches.
9. Imagination (6-1)
Imagination is another Baffert horse, the son of Into Mischief. Imagination has raced six times and has finished first or second in each. He possesses tactical speed and could easily set the tone. The outside post will be to his advantage and he should lead at the first turn. Expect him to be fresh after not racing in the Derby.
5. Mystik Dan (5-2)
All eyes will be on Mystik Dan on Saturday afternoon. He won the Kentucky Derby because of the best trip — possibly in the history of the race. The Derby was set up perfectly for him and his jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. from the start. He loves to race on a wet track and he saved ground along the rail.
The biggest question entering Saturday is if he will need another near-perfect ride to win the Preakness only two weeks later? With rain expected in the forecast, another wet track could play to Mystik Dan’s advantage. The public money will be heavy on him, with the hope that a Triple Crown contender heads to the Belmont.
3. Catching Freedom (6-1)
Catching Freedom finished fourth in the Derby and won the Louisiana Derby. He is a Brad Cox horse who is more of a closer with a powerful late kick.
8. Tuscan Gold (8-1)
Tuscan Gold is a Chad Brown horse with lots of upside and grit. He finished third in the Louisiana Derby, losing to Catching Freedom by just 1¾ lengths. He has only ran three races, but has improved every race and is entering fresh and confident. Reports are that his workouts have been impressive and he should be in the hunt down the stretch. Brown has won the Preakness twice.
2. Uncle Heavy (20-1)
Uncle Heavy has arguably the best jockey on his saddle in Irad Ortiz Jr. That could make all the difference since Uncle Heavy had a bad trip in the Wood Memorial. He’s had five races with three wins and his closeout speed and great stamina gives him a great chance to be an asset in exotic bets.
How to bet the Preakness
Horses close to the pace generally run well in the Preakness, and National Treasure fit that profile last year after cruising to an early lead and holding it. Early Voting was also close to the pace when he won the 2022 running.
Muth was anticipated to be one of the early pacesetters in this race or at least close to it, but his stablemate Imagination will likely be in that position now due to the relative lack of speed in the race. Mystik Dan could certainly be close to the pace as well.
One angle to look at is the rain factor. Mystik Dan had the best Beyer number of his career when he won the Southwest Stakes on a muddy, sealed track.
Longshot Uncle Heavy also has winning experience running in the slop after winning the Withers on a muddy, sealed track. He also won the Wait For It Stakes on a track labeled “good” in December. He’s one of the more interesting long shots after a troubled trip in the Wood Memorial, when he placed fifth after being forced wide for most of the race.
Tuscan Gold is the most lightly raced horse in the race, but Brown has gone that route before with 2017 winner Cloud Computing, who came into the Preakness with three lifetime starts and a third-place finish in the Wood Memorial. Brown’s 2022 winner, Early Voting, also had three lifetime starts and no stakes wins before taking the Preakness. Tuscan Gold is certainly a horse to consider.
Now that Muth is scratched, Mystik Dan’s odds and history off short rest is something to consider when betting. Those who hoped for decent odds on Imagination probably won’t get them now, but he still will probably bring more value than the Kentucky Derby winner and fits the profile of a potential winner. — Katherine Terrell
Muth getting scratched changed the dynamic of this race, which is unfortunate; Imagination at 6-1 was good value. Mystik Dan probably becomes the favorite, and Imagination’s odds will likely fall to 3-1 (if not shorter) at post time. — Anita Marks
Picks for the Preakness
To win
Marks’ pick: Imagination
Let’s hope we can still get Imagination at 3-1 come post time. I believe there is still value here.
Terrell’s pick: Imagination
Exacta
Marks’ pick: 9,5, with 2, 3 (Catching Freedom), 8 (Tuscan Gold)
If Mystik Dan gets a sloppy track, and with rain expected that could turn the tide, Uncle Heavy finishing second or third could be a nice payout.
Terrell’s pick: Imagination over Tuscan Gold
Trifecta
Marks picks: 9 on top with 5 (Mystik Dan), and 2 (Uncle Heavy)
With Muth scratched, I believe Imagination is the best horse in this race. The majority of money will be on Mystik Dan because bettors like want to see a horse compete for the Triple Crown. But it’s Baffert’s second horse that will have my money this weekend.
Terrell’s picks: Imagination // Tuscan Gold // Mystik Dan, Uncle Heavy, Catching Freedom