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Neil Paine
The first week-plus of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs has already provided much in the way of excitement and bone-crunching action. The average playoff game has featured 89.5 total hits by both teams — nearly double the league-average figure (45.5) from the regular season, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
With so much chaos, there are plenty of teams that have exceeded — or fallen short of — expectations already.
For instance, the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights have been mighty impressive, taking a 2-1 lead over a Dallas Stars team that had led the league in goal differential during the regular season. But on the disappointing side, the Toronto Maple Leafs have fallen behind in their series against the Boston Bruins, and the Los Angeles Kings are in a deep hole versus the Edmonton Oilers.
Let’s run through the clubs that fit into each category, based on their playoff goal differentials as compared with what we’d expect from the pre-series power ratings of themselves and their opponent (adjusting for home-ice advantage). We’ll also highlight a player who has contributed to the state of his team, for good or bad, in the playoffs thus far.
We’ll start with the positive side of things. Here are three teams that have impressed the most:
Fire on ice: Hot teams to start the playoffs
Series: Wins the series 4-0 vs. the Capitals. Next: vs. Hurricanes-Islanders series winner
Playoffs GPG Differential: +2.00 | Versus Expected: +1.34
The President’s Trophy — given to the team with the NHL’s best record during the regular season — comes with a lot of baggage. Just two of the past 20 winners have hoisted the Cup, while plenty of others have suffered embarrassing early defeats like last year’s Bruins did. So it’s a good sign already that the 2023-24 winners, the Rangers, have come out strong with a sweep of the Capitals — making them the only team to deliver a first-round sweep in this year’s playoffs. Although regular-season scoring leader Artemi Panarin was somewhat relatively quiet in the series (2 goals, 1 assist in 4 games) in the series, Mika Zibanejad has bounced back from a relative down regular season with a goal and 6 assists while linemates Alexis Lafreniere and Vincent Trocheck combined for 10 points.
Key performer: Igor Shesterkin, G
Ever since he won the Vezina Trophy in 2021-22, the expectations have been for Shesterkin to backstop the Rangers to their first Cup since 1993-94. But while he hasn’t been bad at all in the playoffs (he is tied for the third-highest postseason save percentage in NHL history, minimum 800 shots faced), Shesterkin’s regular-season numbers have trended in a less dominant direction these past few years. So by coming out with the league’s third-best Goals Saved Above Average in these playoffs, Shesterkin is reasserting he can be the man to carry the Rangers’ championship hopes in goal.
Looking ahead: After breaking out the brooms on on a Washington team that was, statistically, the worst team in the playoff field during the regular season, the Rangers are now probably staring at a second-round duel with the Hurricanes. That should make for an incredibly evenly matched battle which could end up being one of the best series of the entire playoffs when all is said and done.
Series: Ahead 2-1 vs. the Stars. Next: 9:30 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
Playoffs GPG Differential: +0.67 | Versus Expected: +1.02
After a solid but unspectacular regular season, it wasn’t clear how the defending champion Golden Knights would fare in the first round against a Dallas team that went into the playoffs with the best record in the West. But just like it did last postseason, Vegas has risen to the occasion against tough competition. The Knights have limited the Stars to just 2.3 goals per game — they averaged 3.6 during the regular season — yielding goals to five Dallas players (Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn, Mason Marchment, Wyatt Johnston, Miro Heiskanen), a relative win against a team that boasted eight 20-goal scorers this season. And Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault have once again stepped up — a year after combining for 51 points in Vegas’ 22 playoff games, that pair has 8 points in three games against Dallas.
Key performer: Logan Thompson, G
Thompson was supposed to backstop the Knights in the playoffs a year ago after leading the team in starts during the regular season, but a late-season lower body injury had him watching Vegas’ Cup run from the sidelines. Now that he’s healthy, Thompson has 89 saves and a .927 save percentage against the Stars, handily outdueling counterpart Jake Oettinger so far.
Looking ahead: The Stars remain dangerous if their offense gets going, so Vegas needs to keep up the defensive pressure. There’s a reason why Dallas ranked third in goals per game during the regular season, and the Knights let them potentially sneak back into the series with an OT victory in Game 3.
Series: Ahead 3-1 vs. the Islanders. Next: 7:30 p.m. ET Tuesday (TBS)
Playoffs GPG Differential: +1.00 | Versus Expected: +0.37
As the Stanley Cup favorites going into the playoffs, Carolina has impressed by taking care of their business. The opposing Islanders are a team that, while among the weaker playoff outfits on paper, was tough-minded enough to battle their way past a crowded wild-card field and make the postseason — so they were not to be taken lightly. The Hurricanes have overwhelmed the Isles with their trademark depth (seven different Carolina skaters have at least 3 points in the series) and a stingy defense that ranks third in the playoffs in fewest goals allowed per game. Carolina also proved it could win from ahead — scoring first in Games 1 and 3 — or behind, as it did when it stormed back from down 3-0 with 5 unanswered goals in Game 2.
Key performer: Frederik Andersen, G
The big knock on Carolina all season has been goaltending, as the combo of Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov struggled while Frederik Andersen was on injured reserve for months. But Andersen returned to the net in March and was stellar down the stretch of the regular season, and then has maintained that same excellent form in the playoffs. He has stopped 103 of 112 Islander shots in the series, including all 11 during a third-period flurry in Game 3 that helped the Canes hang on and take a 3-0 series lead.
Looking ahead: Again, barring a historic comeback by the Islanders, the Hurricanes’ next concern will likely be the Rangers — and that means seeking redemption for the 2022 East semifinals, when Carolina held a 3-2 lead and played Game 7 at home, but fell regardless. With many of the same players still on this year’s roster, the Canes must prove they’ve learned from that loss.
Now, let’s move on to the biggest disappointments of the postseason so far:
Frozen flops: Cold teams to start the playoffs
Series: Down 3-1 vs. the Avalanche. Next: 9:30 p.m. ET Tuesday (ESPN)
Playoffs GPG Differential: -2.50 | Versus Expected: -2.43
Going into the playoffs, we thought the big question for Winnipeg would be whether it could score enough to keep pace with the rest of the West — particularly once it was matched with the league’s top offensive squad, the Avalanche, in Round 1. But the Jets seemed to erase those doubts when they dropped a 7-spot on Colorado in Game 1, with an answer for seemingly every attempt by the Avs at a comeback. Uncharacteristically, though, the Jets — the league’s No. 1 defensive team during the regular season — have yielded at least five goals in every game this series. Prior to this, Winnipeg hadn’t allowed that many goals in consecutive games (much less four straight) since mid-October.
Fall guy: Connor Hellebuyck, G
Hellebuyck was the NHL’s top goalie during the regular season, with a save percentage nearly 20% better than league average. But he’s stopping only 87% of Colorado’s shots during this series — 28% worse than average — and that’s putting pressure on Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele and company to outscore the most dangerous offense in hockey. They pulled that off in Game 1, but asking for that every game was always going to be too much for an offense that ranked 15th in scoring during the regular season.
Looking ahead: The Jets were a great story this season for the fact they rekindled the seemingly lost potential of their 2018 Western conference finals squad with most of the same core intact. An early playoff ouster would complicate that narrative, even though their cap situation probably means they run things back again next season.
Series: Down 3-1 vs. the Oilers. Next: Time TBD Wednesday
Playoffs GPG Differential: -2.00 | Versus Expected: -1.76
The Kings couldn’t have been thrilled to find the Oilers waiting for them in the first round of the playoffs, given that Los Angeles had fallen to Connor McDavid and company in each of the past two postseasons. But L.A. had a far better goal differential (+0.50 per game) in the 2023-24 regular season than it had in either of the two previous years, providing hope that this year’s version could hold up better against the Oilers. Nope. Los Angeles has had no answer for McDavid (10 points in 4 games), and Edmonton has won just about every possible way — including both high-scoring games and Sunday’s 1-0 contest that saw Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner pick up his first career playoff shutout.
Fall guy: Cam Talbot, G
There’s plenty of blame to go around for the Kings, including the disappearing acts of Kevin Fiala and Pierre-Luc Dubois (2 combined points in the series) and the way the NHL’s fourth-best regular season defense by shots per game has allowed the league’s third-most in the playoffs. But the biggest disappointment has belonged to Talbot, who was one of the league’s best goalies during the regular season but has been its very worst in the playoffs. David Rittich replaced Talbot for Game 4 and stopped 12 of 13 shots, but he didn’t get the goal support he needed at the other end; anything he adds will probably end up being too little, too late anyway, after the Kings dug such a hole for themselves earlier in the series.
Looking ahead: The list of pro sports teams who’ve lost to the same opponent in three consecutive playoffs isn’t very long, and the Kings are on the verge of joining it. One has to wonder if Los Angeles’ trademark formula of building good-but-not-great teams through high possession metrics has reached its expiration date for the franchise.
Series: Down 3-1 vs. the Bruins. Next: 7 p.m. ET Tuesday (ESPN)
Playoffs GPG Differential: -1.75 | Versus Expected: -1.59
The Maple Leafs are not strangers to lists like these, given a 1-8 record in their past nine postseason series (and an 0-3 playoff record versus the Bruins specifically). Toronto’s offense, which ranked second during the regular season with 3.6 goals per game, has been held to seven goals in four contests against Boston, with Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman stopping 87 of Toronto’s 91 shots against him in his three starts. Even when the Leafs seemed to get things going in Game 3, as they did in nabbing the first goal (and then later by tying the game at 2-2), their success was short-lived; a pair of timely markers by Brad Marchand ruined Toronto’s chances late, and then Toronto was never a factor in Game 4.
Fall guys: The Big Four
It was tempting to select netminder Ilya Samsonov — who has been starting in the playoffs despite a poor regular season — given he was pulled after allowing three goals on the first 17 shots he faced in Game 4 — but Samsonov hasn’t been the Leafs’ only problem. We can also highlight the members of Toronto’s star contingent: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly and John Tavares have combined for just 3 goals and 7 total points in four games, and William Nylander (who had 98 points during the regular season) has only seen the ice once (scoring 0 points) due to an undisclosed injury he suffered after playing all 82 regular-season games.
Looking ahead: If the Leafs lose to Boston yet again, that will mark six first-round exits (plus one in the qualifying round) in the past eight years. It’s not clear what Toronto can do to substantially change the makeup of this team, given that their core is locked up through at least next season, but the pressure will be on general manager Brad Treliving to shake up a formula that seems to have reached its limits.