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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
With the NHL All-Star Game in the books, everything in the 2023-24 season starts to gain clarity, from the playoffs races to the trade deadline.
That includes the NHL awards field. Well, at least in theory. As the latest NHL Awards Watch reveals, some of these races are now closer than they’ve been this season — including one prominent award that’s in a dead heat at the moment.
We’ve polled a wide selection of Professional Hockey Writers Association voters anonymously to get a sense of where the wind is blowing for the current leaders. We’ve made sure it’s a cross-section from the entire league, trying to gain as many perspectives as possible.
Keep in mind that the PHWA votes for the Hart, Norris, Calder, Selke and Lady Byng; broadcasters vote for the Jack Adams; and general managers handle the Vezina.
All stats are from Hockey-Reference.com, Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey.
Jump ahead:
Ross | Richard | Hart
Norris | Selke | Vezina
Calder | Byng | Adams
Art Ross Trophy (points leader)
Current leaders: Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche and Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning (86 points)
Watch out for: MacKinnon and Kucherov
Longer shot: Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers (67 points)
Maurice ‘Rocket’ Richard Trophy (leading goal scorer)
Current leader: Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs (40 goals)
Watch out for: Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers (37 goals)
Longer shot: MacKinnon (32 goals)
Hart Trophy (MVP)
Leader: Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
Finalists: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets; Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
MacKinnon did nothing to discourage voters in the month since our last Awards Watch. In fact, he has only broadened his base, going from 42% of the first-place ballots to 80% of them in this month’s poll.
MacKinnon is seeking his first league MVP award, having finished second twice and third once in the voting.
“Like a beast slashing through a monstrous season, MacKinnon is out to win the Hart he should’ve won in 2018,” said a MacKinnon voter.
He entered Tuesday night tied for the league lead in points (85) with Kucherov. In fact, their stat lines were identical (32 goals, 53 assists), although MacKinnon had played one more game than Kucherov.
“Nathan MacKinnon by a hair over Nikita Kucherov. But at the rate those two are one-upping each other, game by game, the latter could slip back in front in short order. Meantime let’s all enjoy this epic production duel and hope it lasts until April,” one MacKinnon voter said.
The Avalanche star has 19 more points than the team’s next highest scorer Mikko Rantanen (66).
“I still like Kucherov this year quite a bit and think he’s going to be one of the Hart finalists, but MacKinnon has been playing otherworldly hockey for months now,” one MacKinnon voter said.
Kucherov’s apathy at the NHL skills competition is the direct inverse of his play for the Lightning. He has been absolutely dominant, playing to an even better points-per-game average (1.73 in 49 games) than in his Hart Trophy-winning season in 2018-19 (1.56).
When Andrei Vasilevskiy was out of the lineup, and when he didn’t exactly play to standards after returning from injury, Kucherov was the constant that kept the Lightning rolling into a playoff seed at the All-Star break.
While MacKinnon’s distance ahead of the Avs’ next highest scorer is impressive, Kucherov was 31 points ahead of Brayden Point entering Tuesday night.
But he has a lot of minds to change.
“Think this one is easy right now,” a MacKinnon voter said. “As good as Kucherov has been and as incredible as Edmonton’s run is, MacKinnon has been the NHL’s single most dominant skater in the first half by some margin.
The big change in the Hart race from last month’s Awards Watch: Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks falls out of the top three in favor of Hellebuyck, who had the same voting support as Kucherov.
Having a netminder win the Hart is almost as rare as a defenseman winning it during this century. Since Chris Pronger became the last defenseman to win MVP in 2000, only two goaltenders have captured the Hart: Jose Theodore (2002) and Carey Price (2015), both also winning the Vezina. (The fact they were also both Montreal Canadiens was coincidental, we’re sure.)
When Price won for Montreal, he led the league in wins, save percentage and goals-against average. As of Tuesday, Hellebuyck was tied for the lead in save percentage (.924) and led the league in goals-against average (2.20) for goalies with at least 25 appearances. He was four wins behind Alexandar Georgiev of the Avalanche for the league lead. So if Price’s win is the statistical template, Hellebuyck is close to checking the boxes.
“Look, I’m certain Nathan MacKinnon will win this straw poll, and of course he’s a very deserving choice. But so is Nikita Kucherov. So is Quinn Hughes. So is Auston Matthews. So will Connor McDavid be by season’s end. Well, Hellebuyck has been spectacular, too, leading one of the league’s best teams. He’s played nearly 1,000 more minutes than MacKinnon. Goalies play one of the two most important positions in all of team sports. It’s time we start thinking of them that way,” one Hellebuyck voter said emphatically.
Three players who didn’t receive any first-place votes but are worth keeping an eye on: Matthews, McDavid and Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Matthews for his push for 70 goals while leading the Toronto Maple Leafs. McDavid, who won the Hart last season, for his torrid run to get the Oilers back into a playoff spot. And Crosby for doing all he can to elevate the Penguins to the postseason.
“Matthews’ ability to bring his team back from a lackluster performance drives him here. Anyone who is in the conversation for 70 goals would be a slam-dunk winner, if not for the season MacKinnon is having,” one MacKinnon voter said. “When judging value to a team, Crosby cannot be overlooked, but he’s not having the same level of season that MacKinnon and Matthews are.”
Norris Trophy (top defenseman)
Leader: Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks
Finalists: Noah Dobson, New York Islanders; Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
This remains a two-defenseman race, with Hughes and Makar as the only blueliners to receive a first-place vote.
“It’s too close to call at the halfway mark. Both game-changing defensemen with all the numbers required for the Norris,” said one voter.
This is the fourth Awards Watch of the season and the third time that Hughes has topped our survey of voters. The Canucks defenseman earned 70% of the first-place votes this month, slightly down from last month (79%) but still significantly ahead of his rival from the Avalanche.
Through 49 games, Hughes leads all defensemen with 62 points, but Makar has the lead in points per game (1.31). Hughes leads the NHL is plus/minus (plus-34) compared to Makar’s plus-12.
“Where would the Canucks be without him?” asked one Hughes voter.
“Not that Hughes is underrated or anything, but I’m still not sure people realize how much he controls the game when he’s on the ice,” another Hughes backer said.
Makar plays slightly more (24:57) than Hughes (24:30) and contributes more to the Colorado penalty kill. Makar won the Norris in 2022 and has finished in the top three for the past three seasons. Hughes has never been a finalist.
Dobson didn’t receive a first-place vote, but there was a lot of “down ballot” support for the Islanders defenseman, who is third in the NHL in points by a defenseman.
“I’m curious to see if Dobson can make a run with Patrick Roy now in charge,” one voter said.
“Probably Hughes’ to lose at his point, but not enough is being made about Dobson,” another voter said. “He deserves significant credit because he does not have the same quality of partner that Hughes does and is putting up high-end numbers.”
Other defensemen who were mentioned by voters included Tampa Bay Lightning star Victor Hedman, a six-time Norris finalist and the winner in 2017-18, and Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard.
Calder Trophy (top rookie)
Leaders: Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks and Brock Faber, Minnesota Wild
Finalist: Marco Rossi, Minnesota Wild
Folks … we have a tie.
Bedard and Faber each earned 50% of the first-place votes, as the Minnesota Wild defenseman has rallied to make NHL rookie of the year a race after Bedard was injured in early January.
That breaks a two-month streak during which Bedard earned every first-place ballot from the voters we surveyed.
Bedard, 18, has been out of action since breaking his jaw in a game against the New Jersey Devils on Jan. 5. He led NHL rookies in goals (15) and points (33) in 39 games at the time he was injured.
He still leads all rookies over a month later.
“Bedard is still the winner, in my view. Usually players missing games hurt their chances, but watching the Blackhawks try to score without Bedard has only enhanced my appreciation for how special he’s been,” one Bedard voter said.
But it’s how many games Bedard will end up playing that has some voters wavering.
“I know, I know, ‘games played, blah, blah’ — I’m holding steady for now,” one voter said.
“As I still go off the award’s definition of ‘most proficient,’ it’s hard for me to give it to anyone else at this point,” another said.
“I still think he’ll have enough time after he returns to cement this one, but obviously he’s not running away with it anymore,” a Bedard voter said.
Faber, 21, had already started making a push for the Calder before Bedard’s injury. He’s second among all rookies with 29 points (4 goals, 25 assists) in 49 games. He’s averaging 24:51 of ice time per game, first among rookies and 10th among all skaters this season. Faber has been a rock for the Wild, and the voters have taken notice.
“Minute-muncher Brock Faber is beginning to make things a bit more interesting than many projected,” one voter said.
“Perhaps I am being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian, but Faber has stepped up in a huge way on an injury-ravaged Wild blue line. It has been 16 years since a rookie averaged at least 24 minutes per game over a full season of work,” another Faber backer said.
Still, Faber has to dazzle some more voters to win the Calder.
“Brock Faber is pushing him in a way I didn’t think was going to be possible this year. Having a great season in Minnesota and is a very Charlie McAvoy-esque defenseman. But it feels like the Calder is part of the Bedard coronation process in the NHL,” one voter said.
“If Bedard comes back by March and continues to play the way he did prior to injury, it’s his. Faber has been Minnesota’s best defenseman and was in the Norris conversation for a bit. He’s been nothing short of outstanding at a really tough position. He doesn’t get you out of your seat the way Bedard does,” another voter said.
Rossi, the 22-year-old Minnesota center who’s third in points (28) among rookies, was the only other player prominently mentioned for the Calder.
“Bedard, Faber — a gap — then Rossi. No one else matters,” one voter said.
Other rookies getting a cursory mention were defenseman Luke Hughes of the Devils, goalie Joseph Woll of the Maple Leafs and center Connor Zary of the Calgary Flames.
Vezina Trophy (top goaltender)
Note: The NHL’s general managers vote for this award
Leader: Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Finalists: Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks; Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins
There has been a big shift in the Vezina Trophy race among our voters.
Demko was the leader for the past two months, earning as much as 70% of the first-place votes in the December edition of the Awards Watch. But Hellebuyck has gone from the second option to the overwhelming favorite for this electorate.
The Jets goalie earned a whopping 90% of the first-place votes. That shouldn’t be a surprise when a goalie is getting some MVP chatter, but it’s still a huge turnaround from last month’s vote.
“A workhorse on a team that’s been so damn solid defensively since November. This should be a landslide win for the Jets goalie in a breakout season for Winnipeg,” one voter said.
Hellebuyck is the kind of goalie who will get the lion’s share of credit for a team punching above its assumed weight like the Jets are — especially one doing so with defense as a bedrock. He has the numbers to back up the perceptions, leading the NHL with 22.1 goals saved above expected. Demko is second (18.0).
“Hellebuyck seems like he’s put some distance between himself and the field over the last six weeks or so, but I still think Thatcher Demko should be right there. I’d have it really close between those two if I voted on this award,” one voter said.
Demko has a strong case, too: .920 save percentage, 2.44 goals-against average and a league-best five shutouts. Sometimes, NHL general managers seem to overvalue wins in the Vezina race. Demko has the lead (26 wins) over Hellebuyck (23 wins) there now.
Hellebuyck and Demko were the only two goalies to receive first-place votes. Other goalies were named down the ballot for our voters, such as Jacob Markstrom (Calgary Flames), Ilya Sorokin (New York Islanders), Joey Daccord (Seattle Kraken) and Stuart Skinner of the Edmonton Oilers, thanks in part to his play during their winning streak recently. But the goalie who got the most love was Boston Bruins netminder Jeremy Swayman. He has matched Hellebuyck in save percentage (.924) in 27 games and is fifth in the NHL in goals saved above expected (13.8).
One other name to consider: Vegas Golden Knights playoff hero Adin Hill, who has stellar numbers but whose injuries this season might prevent him from amassing enough games for this race.
Selke Trophy (best defensive forward)
Leader: Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Finalists: Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers; Roope Hintz, Dallas Stars
Barkov is on his third month atop the NHL Awards Watch for the Selke Trophy, increasing his percentage of first-place votes from 47% to 60% in this edition.
The Panthers average 1.55 goals against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 when Barkov is on the ice, with their goalies sporting a .938 save percentage. They earn 59.4% of the shot attempts. For those who believe faceoffs are a harbinger of defensive aptitude, Barkov wins 56.2% of those, too.
He won the Selke for the first and only time in 2020-21.
“Bonus points for his role in assisting Sam Reinhart getting all the money this summer,” one voter joked.
Barkov has the numbers and perhaps the narrative, too, as the heir to Patrice Bergeron’s historic Selke Trophy dominance. But there’s another compelling narrative for the Selke: the Sean Couturier redemption arc.
The Flyers forward received only 10% of the vote but had plenty of down-ballot curiosity. Couturier has been great for the Flyers with 31 points in 46 games, with an expected goals against per 60 minutes of 2.3 at 5-on-5. He’s playing this season after two back surgeries that prematurely ended his 2021-22 season and caused him to miss 2022-23 entirely. He won the Selke in 2019-20, and he’s right back on the voters’ radar.
“I think this is a two-horse race between Couturier and Barkov,” one voter said.
“The Sean Couturier story is one that is so impressive, it feels like he’s going to will his way to staying in the conversation during the second half,” a Barkov voter said.
Also receiving 10% of the vote — and getting down-ballot support — was Roope Hintz of the Dallas Stars, who have an expected goals against per 60 minutes of 2.17 at 5-on-5 when he’s on the ice.
“He’s been dominant at both 5-on-5 and shorthanded,” one Hintz voter said.
As usual, the Selke field casts a wide net. Others players receiving first-place votes were Charlie Coyle (Boston Bruins), Sidney Crosby (Pittsburgh Penguins), J.T. Miller (Vancouver Canucks), Jordan Staal (Carolina Hurricanes) and Nick Suzuki (Montreal Canadiens).
Other players getting love down the ballots were Nico Hischier (New Jersey Devils), Mitch Marner (Toronto Maple Leafs), Auston Matthews (Toronto Maple Leafs), Joel Eriksson Ek (Minnesota Wild) — and Connor McDavid.
“I’ve got a hot take for you: At what point should McDavid get consideration for this award? His defensive play, and Edmonton’s team defense since the coaching change, has been off-the-charts good this season, with McDavid a big-time driver of their defensive play,” one voter said. “I don’t know that he’d be in my final three if I was casting my vote today, but he might be on my ballot.”
Lady Byng Trophy (gentlemanly play)
This is the part where I mention that the Lady Byng Trophy for gentlemanly play should be voted on by the league’s on-ice officials or by the NHL Players’ Association instead of the PHWA.
Through Tuesday, Vancouver’s Elias Pettersson and Toronto’s Auston Matthews were both in the top 20 among scorers and each had just four penalty minutes, which is double the penalty minutes they had last month. Those hooligans!
Jack Adams Award (best coach)
Note: The NHL Broadcasters’ Association votes on this award.
Leader: Rick Tocchet, Vancouver Canucks
Finalists: Rick Bowness, Winnipeg Jets; John Tortorella, Philadelphia Flyers
This has been Tocchet’s award to lose with the Canucks being one of the NHL’s breakout teams in his first full season behind the bench.
He earned 52% of the votes in the last NHL Awards Watch, and that share increased to 60% this month with Vancouver still atop the Western Conference.
“Easiest choice of the bunch,” one voter said.
That established, there are other options. Chief among them Tortorella, who earned 25% of the first-place votes after leading the Flyers to a playoff spot 50 games into the season.
“We expected Vancouver to be in the playoffs, and they’ve overachieved. We expected Philly to be in the [Macklin] Celebrini sweepstakes. They have turned the Metro on its head,”one voter said. “Philly doing this without a Vezina-level season is a more impressive feat than Tocchet in Vancouver.”
Coming in third in the voting was Bowness with 10% of the vote. The Jets coach was credited with getting buy-in from Winnipeg’s players to become one the best defensive teams in the league.
“He took a team that had him completely exasperated at the end of last season and has them as a contender this season, and he’s done it while enduring through personal challenges in his own life,” one voter said. “This should be a lifetime achievement in coaching award, if we’re being honest. Great hockey coach and person.”
Falling out of the top three, and not receiving a vote, was Rangers coach Peter Laviolette.
Other head coaches to receive first-place votes included Paul Maurice (Florida Panthers) and Jim Montgomery, who won the award last year but has the Boston Bruins back near the top of the league despite losing his top two centers and getting stunned in the playoffs last spring.
“Jim Montgomery emerges from the ashes and is narrowly ahead of Rick Tocchet and Rick Bowness. Maintaining a standard of excellence is a testament to Montgomery’s coaching abilities,” the Montgomery voter said.