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Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
Minnesota Wild coach Dean Evason can read a calendar.
His team was predicted by many to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs for the fifth straight season and for the 11th time in 12 seasons. But the Wild were seven points out of a playoff spot on Nov. 23, a.k.a. American Thanksgiving.
“Everything’s absolutely negative around everything. But we can’t be negative,” he said. “If we just continue to stay that way, then we’re not going to get out of this. We have to have a little push back.”
It’s hard not to feel pessimistic for any team that’s outside of the playoff picture on Turkey Day. Since the NHL began its wild-card format in 2013-14, 76.6% of the teams in a playoff spot on U.S. Thanksgiving ended up advancing to the postseason.
But here’s a message of hope for the Wild and everyone else chasing a playoff berth: There have been seasons when this trend has been bucked. There have been seasons where the postseason field looks starkly different than it does on Thanksgiving. And I think we’re in for another season of playoff berth upheaval.
Here were the NHL standings on American Thanksgiving, based on points percentage:
Atlantic
1. Boston Bruins (.861)
2. Florida Panthers (.658)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (.647)
Metro
1. New York Rangers (.794)
2. Washington Capitals (.688)
3. Carolina Hurricanes (.611)
WC1: Detroit Red Wings (.583)
WC2: Tampa Bay Lightning (.575)
Central
1. Dallas Stars (.722)
2. Colorado Avalanche (.667)
3. Winnipeg Jets (.667)
Pacific
1. Vegas Golden Knights (.750)
2. Los Angeles Kings (.735)
3. Vancouver Canucks (.675)
WC1: St. Louis Blues (.585)
WC2: Seattle Kraken (.500)
It was the same pool of teams based on raw standings points, too.
Congrats to all of these teams, because history shows us that the majority of them should be involved in the Stanley Cup Playoffs next spring.
From ESPN Stats & Information, here’s the season-by-season breakdown of teams in playoff position at American Thanksgiving vs. those who made the postseason, during the wild-card era:
2013-14: 13 out of 16 teams
2014-15: 13 teams
2015-16: 12 teams
2016-17: 13 teams
2017-18: 11 teams
2018-19: 11 teams
2019-20: (24-team pandemic playoff)
2020-21: (56-game temporary realignment)
2021-22: 12 teams
2022-23: 13 teams
The first thing that stands out here? There’s never been a season under the wild-card format when all 16 teams in playoff spots on Turkey Day ended up in the postseason — or 15 teams or 14 teams, for that matter.
At least three teams fall out of the playoff picture every season.
In 2015-16, it was four teams: The Montreal Canadiens, who led the East on Turkey Day, as well as the Ottawa Senators (second in Atlantic), Boston Bruins (third) and Vancouver Canucks (third in Pacific). The top three teams in the Atlantic on American Thanksgiving all ended up missing the playoffs, but the West was set, save for the third team from the Pacific. The latter happened again in 2016-17 in the Western Conference.
The 2017-18 season was our first with five teams getting flipped, including four in the Western Conference: The St. Louis Blues, who led the West, Canucks (third in the Pacific) and both wild cards (Dallas Stars and Calgary Flames).
Another five teams were flipped in 2018-19: The Buffalo Sabres (third in Atlantic), New York Rangers (second in Metro) and Canadiens (second wild card), as well as the Minnesota Wild (second in Central) and Anaheim Ducks (third in Pacific … I think we detect a trend in this particular spot in the standings).
After two COVID-19 impacted seasons, the NHL saw four teams flip in 2021-22 — including the Vegas Golden Knights, where were No. 3 in the Pacific. It went back up to only three teams missing last season.
So that’s the trend for teams in playoff spots on American Thanksgiving. What about the teams that eventually replace some of them?
According to ESPN Stats & Information, teams that eventually make the playoff cut trailed a spot by an average of 3.4 points on Thanksgiving, since the wild-card format was introduced.
Teams that were within three points of a playoff spot on Thanksgiving 2023: The Ducks and Arizona Coyotes in the West; the Sabres, New York Islanders, Canadiens, Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins in the East.
Teams within four points: The Flames and the New Jersey Devils.
Four teams have overcome a gap of one point to make the playoffs. The largest gap overcome was eight points, which was accomplished by the Stars in 2013-14, who finished with just 91 points on the season. Even the Blues, who famously went worst-to-first in their 2018-19 Stanley Cup winning season, were close at Thanksgiving: seven points in back of the Stars.
So if the Edmonton Oilers were to rally for a playoff spot, it would set a new record for the largest comeback under the current playoff format. They trailed the Kraken by 10 points on Turkey Day, although they had three games in hand.
As one former NHL player told me recently: “Out of all the teams outside the playoffs, Edmonton is the one that can roll off three great weeks and get right back into this.”
That’s the theory for the Oilers. But their actual points projection, via Micah Blake McCurdy, through Saturday’s games was 85.0, which would have them more than three points behind the Blues (88.1) for the final wild-card spot in the West.
Those point projections have the Flames in and the Kraken out as a wild card. But they also have a lot of fluctuation in the East, with the Islanders (92.7) and Devils (92.1) both making the playoffs ahead of the Penguins (91.1), Senators (89.1), Capitals (88.8) and Red Wings (88.8).
What’s most interesting about McCurdy’s recent points projections is the playoff cutoff line. Commonly, the line is usually around 93 points. But in the Western Conference, the bar is currently set at just 88 points.
The Devils also fare well in Money Puck’s playoff probability metric, with a 62% chance of making the cut. Other teams outside the Turkey Day standings with decent odds: The Nashville Predators (84%), Penguins (47.4%) and Islanders (40.4%) as of Sunday.
Dom Luszczyszyn’s projections at The Athletic are kinder to the Devils (82% chance of making the playoffs), Oilers (54%) and Wild (50%) as of Sunday. Not so much the Kraken (28%) and Blues (4%).
All of this leads to a general thesis about the “American Thanksgiving” trend, as it applies to the 2023-24 NHL season: That we’re in for chaos.
We’re in for one of those 11-out-of-16 seasons. Or perhaps even 10-of-16, which would be the biggest changeover in the standings in the wild-card era.
It’s hard to imagine everything holds with seven teams within three points of playoff spots on Thanksgiving. Or with a team like the Predators, who have really found their stride under coach Andrew Brunette recently. Or a team like Ottawa, which is seeking consistency and a healthy lineup. Or with teams like the Devils, Oilers and Wild, all assumed to be in the playoffs and too good not to make things interesting despite their putrid starts.
They’re chasing teams like the Capitals and Blues, who have ridden strong goaltending to playoff spots on Turkey Day. The Jets and Red Wings have been early-season surprises — can they keep up the pace? As of Sunday, the Kraken have a points percentage (.477) and a goal differential (minus-16) that are both underwater.
Trends are trends for a reason. We already mentioned the 76.6% of teams in Thanksgiving playoff spots that make the cut under the wild-card format. According to Emily Sadler of Sportsnet, the trend even extends beyond this playoff format: Since 2005-06, 184 of 240 teams in a playoff spot on Turkey Day went on to make the postseason. That’s 76.7%, to be exact.
But chaos is chaos for a reason, too. The predictions are wrong. Projections are adjusted. And Turkey Day’s playoff field becomes a faded, unfamiliar snapshot when the postseason begins.