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Kristen Shilton, ESPN NHL reporter
Expectations are a funny thing.
The lead-up to a new NHL season is filled with projections and prognostications — both internal and external — around what should be attainable for every team.
Certain clubs reach that potential with ease. Some even soar past them.
And of course, there’s that other handful of teams, too — the estimated contenders who fell alarmingly fast into “can we still salvage this?” territory.
That latter group is also obviously the most interesting to dissect. And it’s the perfect time to do so as we’re nearing the vaunted U.S. Thanksgiving mark, which by general rule signals teams currently in playoff position will remain there by spring.
The Boston Bruins, Vegas Golden Knights and the New York Rangers? Consider them near-certain postseason locks.
The Toronto Maple Leafs, Vancouver Canucks and Los Angeles Kings? A trio of safe bets.
The real drama exists for the stunning sliders who haven’t answered the bell. We picked five of the biggest underachievers — including a popular preseason Stanley Cup pick — to go under the microscope; we identify the biggest problems and devise solutions to get them back on track before it’s too late.
Note: Preseason point totals courtesy of ESPN BET.
Preseason O/U: 106.5
Current points pace: 56
Edmonton was among the top preseason Stanley Cup contenders. And then, the puck dropped.
The Oilers opened with consecutive losses to Vancouver by a combined score of 12-4. It was a bad omen. By Nov. 9, Edmonton was 2-9-1 after dropping a 3-2 decision to the lowly San Jose Sharks. That deflating defeat was essentially the end for head coach Jay Woodcroft who, despite leading Edmonton to a subsequent win over the Seattle Kraken, was relieved of his duties Nov. 12 and replaced by first-time NHL bench boss Kris Knoblauch.
Edmonton responded with three straight victories under Knoblauch for its first win streak of the season. But will that new energy sustain long enough to put Edmonton back on a Cup-contending track?
Problems: Edmonton can admit to being its own worst enemy. The Oilers are prone to mistakes ending up in their own net. No wonder confidence was tanking less than 10 games in.
Granted, Edmonton had horrific goaltending out of the gate — an inevitability given the Oilers’ poor defensive play. Before Woodcroft’s firing, Edmonton’s tandem of Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner combined for the worst save percentage in the league (.864), while the team ranks 30th in goals against (allowing 3.81 per game).
Campbell (1-4-0, .873 save percentage, 4.50 goals-against average) was placed on waivers Nov. 8 and reassigned to the American Hockey League’s Bakersfield Condors. Skinner (4-6-1, .873 SV%, 3.39 GAA) remains the Oilers’ No. 1 netminder and will be tasked with protecting the crease as best he can unless GM Ken Holland goes looking elsewhere for reinforcements.
Edmonton’s other glaring issue has been its scoring depth — or lack thereof. The previously potent Oilers attack went shockingly limp despite boasting explosive talents like Leon Draisaitl (six goals in 16 games) and last season’s league scoring champion and MVP Connor McDavid (four goals in 14 games). Zach Hyman and Evander Kane have been consistent helpers offensively, but Edmonton has had too many passengers not lighting up the leaderboard.
That, combined with overall defensive deficiencies and woeful goaltending, has added up to Edmonton making drastic changes less than a month into its season. Will it all pay off?
Solutions: Anyone who heard choruses of “Bruce, there it is” raining down in Vancouver two years ago knows the benefit of a well-timed, well-placed new coach. But the reality is that boost won’t last forever. The Oilers’ swift turnaround under Knoblauch has been impressive, and there’s plenty of runway left in their season to rise through the Western Conference ranks. It’s the surest quick fix to that flagging confidence issue.
The roadmap from here is straightforward. Skinner needs to be better, and he’ll require a goalie partner to help carry the load long term. Calvin Pickard has been Skinner’s backup since being recalled in the Campbell transaction, and he made his first start Monday night in a 5-3 loss to Florida. Is this the tandem to lead the Oilers to a Cup? Addressing the team’s one-two punch in net is a priority.
When it comes to the goal-scoring department, there is only one McDavid and one Draisaitl; they’re both elite-level shooters ready to pop off at any moment. They’ll find a rhythm. Edmonton has more recently generated offense from the back end — specifically from Evan Bouchard and Derek Ryan — which is a solid sign the Oilers’ depth can shine through again.
Pardon the cliche, but it’s one game at a time now for Edmonton. Forget about what we thought the Oilers would be; what they are is a team in massive transition, desperately grasping on to some newfound stability. If the Oilers can turn their bad-luck start into increasingly positive momentum under Knoblauch, then there’s hope of a second season this spring in Edmonton.
Preseason O/U: 95
Current points pace: 72
Calgary cleaned house in the offseason by firing head coach Darryl Sutter and parting ways with general manager Brad Treliving. The fresh perspectives of coach Ryan Huska and GM Craig Conroy were meant to lift Calgary from the low point it landed at last season (in failing to make the playoffs) to greater heights in this one (led, ideally, by a rejuvenated Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri).
That has not been the case in Calgary. The Flames kicked off the season at a dispiriting 4-8-2. The hope of that dominant start for Huberdeau quickly vanished. Frustration mounted and hit a peak when defenseman Nikita Zadorov went public (or, rather, his agent did) with a trade request that clearly upset Calgary’s players and management.
Suddenly the word “rebuild” was swinging like a lasso around the Flames’ near future. That’s not where Calgary wants or needs to be, not with pending UFAs Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin to deal with, and young players like Martin Pospisil and Connor Zary in the mix.
Calgary has to pull it together … right?
Problems: The Flames have been booed off home ice in two games this season. That, friends, is known as the worst of times. It’s when a team needs its best players to step up.
And Calgary has simply been missing that consistency.
Huberdeau — the supposed centerpiece of Calgary’s offense who hasn’t come close to the 115-point player he was when Treliving landed him in trade from Florida two years ago — was stapled to the bench by Huska last week while the Flames desperately clawed their way to win over Nashville.
Huska said after the game that he shortened Calgary’s rotation to highlight their best skaters — and that didn’t include Huberdeau. What Huska dismissed then as “an off night” for the veteran has become part of an unproductive pattern (Huberdeau has three goals and 10 points in 17 games, to go with his minus-10 rating).
That is, naturally, one doozy of a problem.
Huska has tried pairing Huberdeau with Lindholm, but their chemistry fell flat. So Huberdeau has been in a third-line slot while Huska mixes up the top six. Despite attempts at a jumpstart, Calgary simply can’t get enough scoring. The Flames had one skater (Blake Coleman) with more than five goals through 17 games and just three (Lindholm, Kadri and Huberdeau) with 10-plus points. Kadri managed three goals in that stretch, and Mikael Backlund had just two. Calgary as a whole went through most of October being outscored 24-9.
Given the Flames’ issues creating even-strength offense, it’s little wonder their power play is at an abysmal 12.7% and has allowed three shorthanded goals against (tied for second most in the NHL).
Jacob Markstrom had given Calgary solid returns in net between a two-game injury absence, but his backup, Dan Vladar (2-1-1, .858 SV%, 3.92 GAA), has been more of a liability. Defensively, the Flames are 25th in shots allowed per game (29.1) while also giving up 3.35 goals per game, suggesting those timely stops aren’t being made.
Calgary has been stuck too often spinning its wheels. November has been kinder than October, putting the Flames on a season-best 4-1-2 heater. Have they finally found some traction?
Solutions: The Flames need an identity. Something to hang their hat on.
Because the big question is: Will the end of calendar 2023 be a foundation of their comeback? Or a building block toward some next chapter?
It’s too soon (probably) to suggest Calgary deal its pending UFAs to jumpstart the rebuild. That conversation might come later, though.
As it is, the Flames’ recent run showed they can shore things up defensively, win more battles and be dynamic in most facets of the game. That’s how buy-in begins.
Beyond that, it’s all about Huberdeau and the Flames’ offense populating the scoresheet. Huska’s valiant effort to pair Huberdeau with just about every available winger hasn’t produced a great match. It’s on Huberdeau, then, to make the most of what talents encouraged Calgary to pursue him in the first place — regardless where he’s slotted in the lineup.
What Calgary needs most is continued confidence. The Flames have often been disjointed, too out of synch to deliver that coveted 60-minute push. It’s looked lately like the Flames are more comfortable in Huska’s system; if that keeps up, it stands to reason Calgary can stay away from another extended funk.
The Flames have good players on the roster, and it’s not too late for them to succeed. Calgary has been a strong, physical defensive squad before, but not without dialling into those habits on every shift. It’s not always glamorous, but it can be the difference between participating in the postseason and watching from home (again).
Minnesota Wild: The uncomfortable underperformers
Preseason O/U: 97
Current points pace: 68
Minnesota has all the pieces. They just aren’t fitting quite right.
The Wild have faced a myriad of early-season struggles unbecoming of its roster laden with young and veteran talents who have more to offer.
After all, Minnesota hasn’t had the salary cap space to make sweeping changes. Most of its lineup been together for a few seasons, at least.
So why do the Wild constantly struggle to find chemistry — and deliver consistent results?
Minnesota was a clear preseason front-runner to compete in the Central Division. Since late October, the Wild are 3-6-3 and have lost five straight, including consecutive games in Sweden during the NHL’s Global Series Showcase. That was a long way to travel for disappointing outcomes. Can Minnesota turn things around back on home soil?
Problems: Let’s start at the beginning — or rather, the start.
Minnesota has often played from behind this season, with only seven of the opening salvos in their first 17 games. The Wild went on to win just three of those seven contests.
It’s an exasperating issue that coach Dean Evason has tried addressing in everything from focused meetings to extra off days. Still, the Wild find they’re at an initial disadvantage that’s difficult to overcome. And even when they do get that go-ahead goal, it doesn’t usually end in victory.
Then there’s the team’s penalty kill. Minnesota is a league-worst 65.5%, and that’s been a constant source of stress. How could it not be, when the Wild set a franchise record for most power-play goals allowed in one game with five (5!) against Dallas last week?
If Minnesota has been giving up goals too easily this season, the team hasn’t compensated with big-time offensive performances of its own. Kirill Kaprizov is averaging nearly a point per game, but without the usual dynamism that allows him to stand out among the NHL’s best forwards. Mats Zuccarello has punched up his play of late, but it’s taken time for him to look like a game-changer again for Minnesota.
Marc-Andre Fleury (3-4-2, .875 SV%, 3.46 GAA) isn’t producing to his former best either, and creasemate Filip Gustavsson (2-4-2, .882 SV%, 4.15 GAA) is even worse statistically.
There is something off about Minnesota as a whole. The potential within their group appears to be there without rising to the surface. There’s a general lack of execution — in large and small parts of the game — holding Minnesota back. And the more losses pile up, the harder it will be for the Wild to confidently switch gears and turn their season around.
Solutions: Minnesota needs a spark. It’s been over six weeks of zero sustained momentum for the Wild. Minnesota has won consecutive games just once, and that’s a recipe for unease to settle in.
The first order of business then would be for the Wild to get on a roll. Easier said than done, of course.
Seeing Kaprizov step up and challenge once again as a top performer is that ideal shot in the arm. Depth is critical for any team, but when mired in a slump it’s generally a club’s top skaters who set the tone for a bounce back. Kaprizov should be that guy.
Minnesota’s penalty-killing woes have seen some improvement and a continued positive trajectory there pays dividends in other areas, too — like goaltending. It feels like the Wild have been through a gamut of goalies in recent seasons, but Fleury has been their constant since GM Bill Guerin brought him in. A choice has to be made, though, about whether Fleury and Gustavsson are the right tandem to make Minnesota a playoff contender.
Because even if the offense explodes, and defensively the Wild remain tight, it won’t matter if pucks are still getting past the netminders. Guerin has been hesitant — or unable — to execute much on the trade and acquisition fronts. Depending on how the next weeks go for Minnesota, he’ll have to decide if a personnel shake up — in goal or elsewhere — is the only way for the Wild to reach their previous projected status as postseason players.
Preseason O/U: 92
Current points pace: 78
Seattle was last season’s Cinderella story. This season they had early pumpkin-at-midnight vibes.
The Kraken were pegged to perform after going from one of the league’s worst teams in their inaugural 2021-22 campaign to making an entertaining run to the postseason in 2022-23, with a first-round series victory over the then-reigning Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche to boot.
That success had pundits putting Seattle on pace to not just reach the playoffs, but possibly advance even further than a second-round showing.
When the puck actually dropped, Seattle whimpered its way to an 0-3-1 start and won just seven of its first 19 games. Now the Kraken are stuck in the Pacific’s mushy middle, covered in question marks. Are the Kraken bound to sink lower from here — or can they rise once more from the depths?
Problems: Seattle is starved for scoring.
The Kraken are bottom five in scoring (averaging 2.63 goals per game) and put fewer than 30 shots on goal per game. Seattle has a major gap between its top performers — namely Jaden Schwartz, Jared McCann and Oliver Bjorkstrand — and the rest of its forwards. Jordan Eberle collected just one goal in his first 15 games. Reigning Calder Trophy winner Matty Beniers had just two. That’s not close to enough of what Seattle needs from their best talents.
It’s worth noting Seattle lost Andre Burakovsky early on to injury, and that certainly impacts their potency up front. But others should be ready to pick up the slack.
When a team is struggling for output then its defense and goaltending must be dialed in. Such is not the case here. Philipp Grubauer (4-6-0, .890 SV%, 3.30 GAA) and Joey Daccord (2-2-4, .899 SV%, 3.00 GAA) have shared the net in similarly mediocre fashion. And Seattle’s defense hasn’t helped, allowing nearly 31 shots against per game. The Kraken can get carved up in the neutral zone and cede too much open ice in their own end. It’s a rough combination.
Solutions: What drove Seattle’s success last season? Depth. From top to bottom, players were gathering points and putting pucks in at the right moment. There was no singular star player. That’s what made Seattle special.
This season has found the Kraken top-heavier, and the results are varied. Who are they now if not that determined underdog?
The optimal way back is by tightening up defensively and consistent offensive efforts. Seattle didn’t undergo a massive transformation. It’s the same skaters who boosted the franchise a year ago in position to do it again. What’s preventing them from doing it?
Playing a 200-foot game is paramount. The Kraken won’t crack any defensive struggles without it. Unless Grubauer and Daccord suddenly stand on their heads each night (which is never a smart assumption for any team to make) then Seattle must clear pucks out of the slot, shut down the cycle faster and relieve the pressure on their goaltenders.
What Seattle needs is production at the right moment, those times in a game where the pendulum can still swing their way. That’s how the Kraken can keep stringing wins together and feel good about themselves. It’s already started too, with the Kraken earning a point in three straight games last week. We’ll wait and see if Seattle’s tapped into something it can build on.
Preseason O/U: 87
Current points pace: 62
After narrowly missing the playoffs last season, Nashville entered this season as one of the league’s older clubs. But on the ice, these Predators have been mired in unanticipated growing pains.
The system implemented by new head coach Andrew Brunette hasn’t exactly been a flawless fit — Nashville has plummeted its way down the standings while adjusting under Brunette’s tutelage.
Like an unwelcome game of whack-a-mole, the Predators’ issue continue popping up — worst of all being the six wins collected over the team’s first 16 games. That’s disappointing on its own. Tougher still for the Predators is that in a majority of losses they’ve actually held a lead and blown it.
What can be done to get Nashville on a run?
Problems: The Predators’ struggles stem from two particular areas: defensive play and goaltending.
Brunette wants his team playing fast but with an emphasis on accountability, particularly away from the puck (doesn’t every coach?). Nashville hasn’t excelled in open space, and often leaves its goaltenders out to dry — which would explain the poor stat line next to Juuse Saros‘ name.
Nashville’s No.1 in net started out 4-9-0, with an .892 SV% and 3.23 GAA. Those figures are far from what the Predators have seen from Saros in recent seasons where he was practically their savior (and basically propelled them into the postseason two years ago).
It’s not all on Saros though; in fact, he’s had good performances ruined by sloppy defensive showings. It’s a combination of factors. The bottom line is that Nashville sits 22nd in goals against per game (3.38) and its 20th-ranked offense simply can’t make up the difference.
All that said, Nashville’s penalty kill might be it’s greatest downfall to date. They’re 30th in the league shorthanded (71.2%) and had given up at least one power-play goal in 10 of their first 16 games this season. It’s no recipe for success.
The loss of Luke Schenn to a lower-body injury in October and having Ryan McDonagh sidelined lately weakened Nashville on the back end and the kill. But the players who were available haven’t maximized opportunities to improve.
Solutions: We’ll say it again; the Predators need more from their healthy defensemen.
Scratch that. Nashville requires all of its skaters to prioritize defense and build confidence in Brunette’s structure. But the Predators should expect greater things from Jeremy Lauzon (one point in 16 games), Alexandre Carrier (five assists in 16 games) and even Tyson Barrie (seven assists in 16 games) to fill the voids when other skaters fall out of the lineup. But time and again, Nashville has been defeated by its own poor gap control.
The team’s forwards don’t get a pass. Nashville has received decent production from it’s top six (led by a resurgent Ryan O’Reilly) but the Predators’ third and fourth lines haven’t kept up, especially to help secure wins in tight games. It’s not like Nashville has endured one blowout after another. It’s the lack of attention to detail — something Brunette constantly harps on — that’s derailing Nashville’s playoff hopes.
Fundamentally, Nashville has all the smart, talented players it needs to succeed. Brunette can adjust and put systems in place to highlight the players he’s coaching. Maybe that’s more individual autonomy. Maybe a more hands-off, less rigid approach can allow them to flourish.
Only time will tell if Brunette finds the right formula. Nashville can turn their season around with the right collective buy-in, which starts at the top. And there’s no time like the present for the Preds to do so.