What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 8? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
The Los Angeles Rams hit the road to play the Dallas Cowboys (-6, 45.5). Both teams have been up and down so far. What do you expect out of this one and how are you betting it?
Fulghum: I expect the Rams to put up a fight for the first half or so … but ultimately fall short. I’d play Cowboys -6 in this spot. Dallas is coming off its bye and has the requisite pieces to make life difficult for the Rams. Even missing CB Trevon Diggs and LB Leighton Vander Esch, the Cowboys’ defense should have no problem applying pressure to Matthew Stafford in the pocket. I would be shocked if Micah Parsons didn’t record a sack in this game. The Rams’ defense has been better than expected, and the Cowboys’ offense has looked pretty pedestrian, but I still think Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb will make just enough splash plays to get Dallas the win and cover at home.
Moody: I agree with Tyler, the Rams are going to make it interesting, but the Cowboys (-6) should pull away in the second half. Dallas is 4-2 against the spread in the past six games. The Cowboys will be playing at home and have had an extra week to prepare for this game coming off a bye week. Dallas also leads the league in pass rush win rate, while the Rams’ offensive line ranks 27th in pass block win rate. This is something the Cowboys would be wise to take advantage of. The Rams are 1-4 against the spread in their past five games on the road against Dallas. The Cowboys should take care of business in this matchup and cover the spread.
San Francisco rides a two-game losing streak into Sunday, and will likely have Sam Darnold at quarterback as the Bengals come in fresh off a bye week. The 49ers (-3, 43.5) are still favored. Is this a game to stay away from or are you betting it?
Schatz: The Bengals have just not been a very good team this year, 21st in overall DVOA and 14th in ESPN FPI (which, unlike DVOA, does include some prior season information). Even in the past couple of games when it seemed like Joe Burrow was getting healthy and back on track, the Bengals didn’t put up a passing performance over average. So the question is: How bad is the 49ers’ offense with Darnold at quarterback? Does it go from great to good, or worse? Based on DVOA, I would still favor the 49ers in this game even if Darnold reduced their offense to being league average. As bad as he was in his New York days, it’s hard to imagine the 49ers’ offense being worse than that. So I am comfortable going with 49ers -3 here.
Fulghum: I am going to stay away from it. I trust Kyle Shanahan. I trust Christian McCaffrey. I trust the 49ers’ defense. Cincinnati, however, is coming off its bye and playing better offensively. I was going to bet the 49ers bounce back pretty hard after their Monday night loss in Minnesota, but the change at QB has me pausing.
Moody: I’m staying away from it. The Bengals are getting more and more favorable odds as kickoff approaches against the 49ers. Due to the concussion news surrounding Brock Purdy, the line has tightened. This matchup has a lot of uncertainty. Who’s starting? Purdy or Darnold? Coming out of the bye, will the Bengals build on their performance in Week 6 or revert to their early season form? I’m more inclined to watch this game from the sidelines without any skin in the game, but I could be persuaded into placing some prop bets.
Which of the other games are you looking forward to betting on this week?
Schatz: I suppose divisional games tend to be a little closer and slightly lower-scoring than other games, but I am still surprised that the line in Broncos-Chiefs has moved toward the Broncos during the week. The Chiefs are in the top five of DVOA for all three phases of the game, while the Broncos are still the second-worst defense ever tracked through seven games, even after holding the Packers to 17 points last Sunday. Denver had its best defensive game of the year in the first meeting with Kansas City. The Broncos aren’t going to do that again. Chiefs -7 all the way.
Fulghum: I’m going to bet the Ravens -9.5 at Arizona. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens put the Lions in their place last week with an absolute dismantling in Baltimore. Jackson is now 16-1 against NFC opponents in his career. Baltimore appears to be hitting its stride as we approach November. Arizona was a fun little story for the first couple weeks of the season, but the gap in talent between the Cardinals and the rest of the league is starting to show in a more pronounced way. The Ravens win and cover in this spot with Jackson and the offense once again putting on a show.
Moody: The Carolina Panthers vs. Houston Texans game. There are so many intriguing narratives in this game. The DeMeco Ryans era in Houston is off to a great start. The Texans have found their quarterback of the future in C.J. Stroud. With Bryce Young under center and Frank Reich as head coach, the Panthers are trying to get back on track as a franchise. On Sunday, Young will be looking to prove Carolina made the right decision by picking him No. 1 by defeating the Texans. From a betting perspective, I do like the over (43.5) in this matchup. The Panthers and Texans have both been inconsistent defensively, so I expect a lot of points to be scored. Both teams also rank in the top 10 in pass attempts per game.
Walder: I’ll lay the points with the Dolphins -9.5. Sure, they lost pretty handily to the Eagles a week ago. But the Patriots have nowhere near the strength in the trenches that Philadelphia does — on either side of the ball. Plus, the Dolphins run screen plays at the highest rate (7%) in the league, and the Patriots have allowed the most EPA per screen play this year.
What is your favorite prop bet on Sunday?
Schatz: Evan Engram is a big part of the Jaguars’ offense, but the Steelers rank No. 1 in DVOA and No. 2 in average yards per game allowed to tight ends. The Steelers are much more susceptible to wide receivers, so don’t be surprised if this game sees a lot of passes to Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk instead of Engram. Even though he has topped this number in his past four games, I like going with Engram UNDER 44.5 receiving yards.
Moody: Breece Hall OVER 68.5 rushing yards. Hall is positioned to deliver a breathtaking performance against the Giants’ defense. The G-Men have allowed the sixth most rushing yards per game. This season, Hall has averaged 6.5 rushing yards per attempt. Having just come off a bye week, he’ll have ample opportunities to rush for over 68.5 yards.
Walder: Bud Dupree over 0.25 sacks (+185 at DraftKings). No matter who is at quarterback for the Titans, there will be sack opportunities for the Falcons. Ryan Tannehill has a huge 10% sack rate this year, Malik Willis has an incredibly high 15% sack rate in his NFL career and Will Levis had an 11% sack rate in college. I make this number +133 even with a conservative guess at opponent sack rate given the unknown of who is starting (and with Levis having no NFL history).
Is there anything else you’re playing on Sunday?
Schatz: The scripted plays just aren’t working out for Matt Canada and the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s offensive DVOA rank by quarter goes from dead last in Q1 to 18th in Q2, 10th in Q3 and sixth in Q4. Pittsburgh’s defense also ranks its worst (22nd) in the first quarter. Jacksonville ranks in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive DVOA in the first quarter. Surprisingly, Jaguars -0.5 in the first quarter has positive odds (+135). Take it.
Fulghum: Colts/Saints OVER 43.5. The Colts have become one of the most enjoyable teams to watch under Shane Steichen, simply because the dude loves to run plays. Play volume equals more opportunity for points. Five of seven Colts games have gone over the total this season, including three or four at home. New Orleans just snapped a 12-game under streak last week, so we might be getting a bit of value here on the over due to that recent trend. I’m going to be betting Colts games over the total all season long, especially at home.
Moody: Jaylen Warren OVER 19.5 receiving yards. The Jaguars’ defense ranks in the top five of targets, receptions and receiving yards allowed to running backs. Warren will see more action as a receiver out of the backfield since the Steelers’ offensive line ranks 26th in run stop win rate while Jacksonville’s defensive front ranks 12th in run stop win rate.
Moody: Zay Flowers OVER 54.5 receiving yards. This season, the Cardinals’ defense ranks among the top five in its use of zone coverage. Arizona also gives up the sixth most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Nearly 88% of Flowers’ receiving yards this season have come against zone coverage. In three of his past four games, he has surpassed 54.5 yards receiving.