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Bill Connelly, ESPN Staff Writer
The theme of the 2010s and 2020s in college football has been power concentration. Things have grown pretty predictable, with Alabama winning six national titles in 12 years under Nick Saban; Ohio State, Clemson and Oklahoma ripping off long runs of conference domination; and now Georgia winning back-to-back national titles.
It’s early in the College Football Playoff’s lifespan, but it’s possible that we’re witnessing a concentration of power at or near the top of the sport, something that expansion to a 12-team CFP might or might not address. Or it’s possible we’re just witnessing another, similar act in college football’s history — it is, after all, a sport that has forever been lorded over by a ruling class of dominant schools.
Is the ruling class more dominant than usual? What shifts have we seen over time? For questions like these, SP+ can come in handy.
While the version of SP+ presented weekly during a given season is based on a large number of predictive factors, I have come up with a version based solely on points scored and allowed that, at the lower levels of the sport, can serve to make solid projections. I applied those same methods to the games going back to 1883, when football’s scoring rules became mostly what they are now. (You can find all ratings here.)
Starting with the 1920s, I looked at which teams most thoroughly dominated the sport from decade to decade, using SP+ percentile averages for each team and each decade. How much do these lists change from decade to decade? What can these averages tell us about how things have evolved over the past 100 years and how much things are evolving now?
Let’s dive in.
Jump to:
1930s | 1940s | 1950s | 1960s | 1970s
1980s | 1990s | 2000s | 2010s | 2020s
1920s
1. USC (92.5 percentile, five top-five SP+ finishes, three No. 1s)
2. Notre Dame (87.2, four top-fives, one No. 1)
3. Alabama (85.8, four top-fives, one No. 1)
4. Texas (84.4, two top-fives)
5. Vanderbilt (84.2, one top-five)
6. Dartmouth (84.1, one top-five, one No. 1)
7. Michigan (84.1, three top-fives)
8. Nebraska (83.5, two top-fives)
9. Texas A&M (83.2, one top-five)
10. Army (82.9)
Other No. 1s: California, Cornell, Florida, Georgia Tech
College football’s early decades were dominated by schools in what would become the Ivy League and the Western Conference (eventually the Big Ten). But in the 1920s, the South officially became obsessed, and California even joined in. Southern California fully committed to football over rugby after World War I and won its first Rose Bowl at the end of the 1922 season. Alabama broke through in 1925, not only scoring a surprising Rose Bowl bid (after a number of schools had turned it down) but upsetting Washington in the process.
By the end of the 1920s, Grantland Rice had discovered the wonders of waxing poetic about college football (and Notre Dame in particular), and the Carnegie Foundation had written a groundbreaking report warning about illegal recruiting inducements, threats to amateurism and schools’ overt obsession with football. By the early 1930s, Alabama, Tennessee and others had come to realize they were far more invested in the sport (and had better resources) than some of their Southern Conference brethren and formed the Southeastern Conference. We were off and running.
Five best teams: 1921 Georgia Tech (98.3), 1923 Cornell (98.2), 1925 Dartmouth (98.0), 1929 USC (97.9), 1921 California (97.7)
John Heisman’s Georgia Tech was the best program of the late 1910s, but he moved from Tech to Penn in 1920 — he and his wife were divorcing, and he left town to avoid awkward social situations (as one does) — and after one last hurrah in 1921, the Ramblin’ Wreck’s progress slowly slid under William Alexander.
Five best offenses: 1929 USC (99.8), 1923 Cornell (99.7), 1921 Georgia Tech (99.7), 1926 USC (99.6), 1920 Alabama (99.4)
In 1929, Notre Dame went 9-0 while scoring a total of 145 points. USC, meanwhile, scored 492, including 47 against Pitt in the Rose Bowl. That’s enough to earn the top spot of the decade, even if the Trojans managed only 12 points against Notre Dame.
Five best defenses: 1925 Michigan (97.2), 1928 Illinois (97.1), 1929 Illinois (96.8), 1927 Illinois (96.7), 1920 Texas A&M (95.3)
Robert Zuppke’s biggest accomplishment was introducing Red Grange to the world. But after Grange left to become one of the NFL’s big early names, Zuppke’s Fighting Illini went a combined 20-2-2 from 1927-29 on the back of some ridiculous defenses.
1930s
1. Alabama (96.0 percentile, five top-fives, one No. 1)
2. Tennessee (91.3, six top-fives, two No. 1s)
3. Pitt (90.6, three top-fives)
4. TCU (89.2, three top-fives)
5. Tulane (86.8, three top-fives)
6. Ohio State (86.5, three top-fives)
7. Duke (86.2, one top-five)
8. Minnesota (86.2, three top-fives)
9. Army (85.1)
10. Fordham (84.0)
Other No. 1s: California, Colgate, LSU, Michigan, SMU, USC, Utah
Dominant programs began to pop up throughout the country in the 1930s. Some have remained equally obsessed since then (Bama, Tennessee, Ohio State), and others failed to keep up with the times (Fordham, Colgate), but this was a genuinely democratic decade, with schools from Utah in 1930 to Colgate in 1932 to LSU in 1936 all landing top grades. America was officially fixated, even with the last decade’s most dominant programs, Notre Dame and USC, each hitting bumpy patches.
Bama was the king, however. The Tide went unbeaten or lost just once in seven of 10 seasons in the 1930s. The AP poll didn’t come around until the back half of the decade, but if it had existed earlier, they likely would have landed national titles in 1930 and 1934. Of course, they claim those titles already. (They didn’t need a stinking poll to do so.)
Five best teams: 1939 Tennessee (99.5%), 1932 Colgate (99.5%), 1938 Tennessee (99.3%), 1934 Alabama (99.2%), 1930 Utah (99.1%)
Bob Neyland’s Tennessee Vols were the nation’s preeminent program in the years before World War II, going 38-2 from 1938-40 and allowing just 1.9 points per game in that span. Granted, points were at a premium nationwide, but that’s still pretty ridiculous.
Five best offenses: 1930 Utah (99.9%), 1932 Colgate (99.9%), 1938 TCU (99.8%), 1931 Tulane (99.8%), 1934 Alabama (99.2%)
As you would probably expect, most offenses were built around relentless run games in the 1930s, but liberalized passing rules allowed some coaches to experiment, and TCU’s Dutch Meyer was on the forefront. In 1938, Davey O’Brien threw for 1,509 yards (equivalent to, what, 6,000 today?) and TCU scored at least 20 points in nine of 11 games during an unbeaten campaign.
Five best defenses: 1936 TCU (99.5%), 1935 SMU (99.4%), 1939 Tennessee (99.3%), 1939 Texas A&M (99.0%), 1935 Stanford (98.9%)
After allowing just 16 points in 1938, Neyland’s Vols one-upped themselves in 1939, outscoring opponents by a perfect 212-0 in the regular season before losing 14-0 to USC in the Rose Bowl.
1940s
1. Michigan (95.8 percentile, five top-fives, one No. 1)
2. Notre Dame (92.8, five top-fives)
3. Texas (92.3, five top-fives, two No. 1s)
4. Alabama (87.6, one top-five)
5. Penn (87.3, one top-five)
6. Georgia (86.8, three top-fives, one No. 1)
7. Tennessee (86.6, three top-fives, one No. 1)
8. Minnesota (81.5, one top-five)
9. Georgia Tech (81.4)
10. Penn State (80.8, two top-fives)
Other No. 1s: Army (twice), Tulsa (twice), Oklahoma
Obviously all bets were off in the war years, when team quality was determined primarily by who had good freshman classes (upperclassmen were often off to war) and who had strong connections to the military (like Notre Dame, which became a Navy training center). Tulsa outscored opponents by an average of 37-5 in 1942 and ’43 and appeared in back-to-back Sugar Bowls, which probably says a lot.
Specific powers emerged in the post-war years, however. From 1945-49, Army (97.7), Notre Dame (97.6) and Michigan (96.3) all produced particularly elite averages – the 1945 Army team is one of the prime candidates for Best Team Ever, and the loaded 1947 Notre Dame team famously had future pros on its third string.
Five best teams: 1945 Army (99.8%), 1946 Georgia (99.6%), 1947 Texas (99.5%), 1940 Tennessee (99.4%), 1947 Michigan (99.3%)
The 1945 Army team was just about perfect. Not only did the Cadets feature the Mr. Inside (1945 Heisman winner Doc Blanchard) and Mr. Outside (1946 winner Glenn Davis) combination, they also featured a number of stars from other schools, for war-related reasons. They averaged 360 rushing yards per game and outscored nine opponents, including awesome Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn and Navy teams, by an average of 46-5. They were pretty good.
Five best offenses: 1945 Army (99.9%), 1942 Tulsa (99.9%), 1946 Georgia (99.9%), 1944 Tulsa (99.8%), 1947 Michigan (99.8%)
YouTube does not exactly overflow with footage of early 1940s Tulsa football, and that’s a damn shame because Tulsa averaged 234 passing yards per game in 1942 (and 426 total yards), and I would love to see exactly how that came about.
Five best defenses: 1940 Texas A&M (99.7%), 1946 Rice (99.4%), 1948 Michigan (99.3%), 1942 Texas (98.8%), 1945 Indiana (98.8%)
Homer Norton’s defense-dominant Texas A&M was a bit overshadowed by Neyland’s Tennessee D, but the Aggies went 20-1 in 1939 and ’40, and allowed just 4.6 points per game in 1940.
1950s
1. Oklahoma (96.7 percentile, eight top-fives, two No. 1s)
2. Ole Miss (91.7, five top-fives, one No. 1)
3. Michigan State (91.6, four top-fives, one No. 1)
4. Georgia Tech (87.9, five top-fives, one No. 1)
5. Ohio State (85.4, two top-fives, one No. 1)
6. Tennessee (84.0, four top-fives, one No. 1)
7. UCLA (83.4, two top-fives)
8. Army (82.5, two top-fives, one No. 1)
9. Wisconsin (81.0)
10. Kentucky (80.5, one top-five, one No. 1)
Other No. 1s: Maryland
The 1950s were a time of transition. Famed coaches such as Notre Dame’s Frank Leahy, Army’s Red Blaik, Michigan’s Fritz Crisler, Alabama’s Frank Thomas and Neyland all retired in the post-war years, and most of those programs hit bumpy patches at one point or another. While schools including Bear Bryant’s Maryland, Bobby Dodd’s Georgia Tech, John Vaught’s Ole Miss, Jim Tatum’s Maryland and Duffy Daugherty’s Michigan State all emerged as powers, Oklahoma became the center of the college football universe.
Bud Wilkinson’s Sooners famously won 47 straight games from 1953-57 and recorded top-five SP+ finishes every year from 1951-58. They combined strong defense with the most dominant version of the Split-T offense on record. It would not be the last time the Sooners won a ton of games with the perfect version of a new offense.
Five best teams: 1956 Oklahoma (99.8%), 1959 Ole Miss (99.8%), 1952 Georgia Tech (99.7%), 1953 Maryland (99.4%), 1959 Syracuse (99.0%)
In my book, “The 50 Best* College Football Teams of All Time,” I wrote a chapter on the 1959 Ole Miss and Syracuse teams, two nearly perfect teams – one built around a perfect defense (Ole Miss) and one around an unstoppable run game (Syracuse) – and two ships passing in the night. Segregation wouldn’t have allowed the two teams to play each other even if they wanted to. Syracuse went unbeaten, and only the greatest punt return ever prevented Ole Miss from doing the same.
Five best offenses: 1956 Oklahoma (99.99%), 1959 Syracuse (99.96%), 1953 Texas Tech (99.8%), 1957 Michigan State (99.7%), 1952 Oklahoma (99.7%)
Texas Tech earned admission into the Southwest Conference in the mid 1950s, thanks in part to the way they raised their profile in the early part of the decade. The 1953 team, led by All-American Bobby Cavasos, averaged 39 points per game en route to an 11-1 season and Gator Bowl win.
Five best defenses: 1952 Georgia Tech (99.8%), 1957 Texas A&M (99.4%), 1953 Maryland (99.3%), 1959 Ole Miss (99.2%), 1957 Auburn (99.1%)
Former Neyland quarterback Bobby Dodd took over as Georgia Tech head coach in 1945 and established a Neyland-esque run of brilliant defense. His 1952 team rolled to 12-0, allowing 59 total points and with only strong Florida and Alabama teams able to even stay close.
1960s
1. Alabama (94.4 percentile, six top-fives, three No. 1s)
2. Arkansas (92.7, three top-fives)
3. Texas (92.7, five top-fives)
4. Ole Miss (91.3, four top-fives, three No. 1s)
5. Michigan State (87.8, four top-fives)
6. Ohio State (87.0, two top-fives, one No. 1)
7. LSU (87.0, three top-fives)
8. Penn State (86.9, two top-fives, one No. 1)
9. Purdue (86.8, one top-five)
10. Tennessee (85.9, two top-fives, one No. 1)
Other No. 1s: Notre Dame
Opponent adjustments before the integration of the 1970s is admittedly a pretty tricky thing – teams in the South only played teams in the South – but it’s safe to say that a number of Southern teams were playing at a ridiculously high level in the early 1960s. Bryant’s Alabama teams went 60-5-1 from 1961-66, and Vaught’s Ole Miss went 46-4-3 from 1959-63, and in the SWC both Darrell K Royal’s Texas and Frank Broyles’ Arkansas peaked as well.
Outside the South, Notre Dame bottomed out early in the decade before hiring Ara Parseghian in 1964 and immediately igniting, and schools like USC, Michigan State and eventually Ohio State all began compiling epic amounts of talent.
Five best teams: 1966 Notre Dame (99.6%), 1964 Alabama (99.4%), 1966 Alabama (99.3%), 1962 Alabama (99.3%), 1961 Ole Miss (99.1%)
Parseghian’s 1966 Irish are known primarily for playing for a tie late against Michigan State and winning the national title over unbeaten Alabama because of it. What they should actually be known for is being one of the best Notre Dame teams of all time.
The Irish beat three top-10 teams (Purdue, Oklahoma, USC) by a combined 115-14 and shut out six opponents. And their 10-10 tie with Michigan State came (a) against another brilliant team and (b) with their backup quarterback. This was an absurdly good team.
Five best offenses: 1960 Iowa (99.8%), 1960 New Mexico State (99.8%), 1964 Tulsa (99.7%), 1963 Navy (99.6%), 1965 Arkansas (99.4%)
That’s right, there was a time when Iowa was known for elite offense. In 1960, quarterback Wilburn Hollis and halfback Larry Ferguson helmed an attack that ranked fifth in scoring offense (26.3 PPG) despite playing an incredible eight straight ranked opponents.
Five best defenses: 1962 Alabama (99.7%), 1962 LSU (99.6%), 1963 Ole Miss (99.5%), 1962 Ole Miss (99.3%), 1966 Alabama (99.3%)
The late 1950s and early 1960s SEC was the home of defense-and-field-position football, as this list pretty clearly illustrates. Bryant’s 1962 Bama squad was the peak: The Tide went 10-1 and never allowed more than seven points in a game.
1970s
1. Alabama (98.2 percentile, nine top-fives, two No. 1s)
2. Nebraska (98.0, seven top-fives, three No. 1s)
3. Michigan (97.6, four top-fives)
4. Oklahoma (97.3, eight top-fives, two No. 1s)
5. Ohio State (96.0, four top-fives, one No. 1)
6. Texas (93.6, one top-five)
7. USC (93.2, four top-fives)
8. Penn State (91.2, three top-fives)
9. Notre Dame (90.4, one top-five)
10. LSU (86.4)
Other No. 1s: Pitt, Tennessee
Yes, the 2010s and early 2020s have been particularly blueblood-friendly. They’ve got nothing on the 1970s. We sometimes like to assert that people will stop watching if things are too predictable, but the 1970s are a pretty good counter-balance to that argument. College football’s popularity continued to surge despite the fact that basically nine schools ran the sport.
The top nine teams above combined to scoop up nine of the decade’s 10 AP national titles, along with 64 of the decade’s 100 top-10 finishes. In a decade ruled by elites, Pitt was the only usurper allowed to join the party – the Panthers won the 1976 title and ranked first in SP+ in 1977. The team with the fifth-best overall percentile average (Ohio State) would have ranked an easy first in the 1960s.
Five best teams: 1971 Nebraska (99.96%), 1974 Oklahoma (99.8%), 1972 Nebraska (99.8%), 1973 Alabama (99.7%), 1979 Alabama (99.7%)
Per these SP+ formulations, the 1971 Huskers are officially the highest-graded team on record. The Oklahoma team they beat that year was in the overall top-50 itself – NU’s 35-31 win probably was the true Game of the Century https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32204968/behind-scenes-stories-oklahoma-nebraska-college-football-greatest-game.
The 1974 Oklahoma Sooners? Second overall. The Big 8’s powers were playing some special ball in the early 1970s.
Five best offenses: 1971 Nebraska (99.98%), 1971 Oklahoma (99.96%), 1978 Oklahoma (99.9%), 1972 Arizona State (99.9%), 1974 Oklahoma (99.9%)
In the 1970s, the wishbone took over college football as perhaps no other trendy offense ever had. Oklahoma, Alabama and Texas all ran their own variations of it, and Nebraska lived the triple-option life as well. As we see above, no one ran the triple like Barry Switzer’s Sooners, however. They had three of the five best offenses of the decade.
Five best defenses: 1979 Clemson (99.6%), 1974 Alabama (99.6%), 1970 LSU (99.5%), 1975 Alabama (99.5%), 1978 USC (99.5%)
The South was still all about the defense. But while Bryant had another couple of perfect defenses on the list, the single best unit of the decade took the field in Danny Ford’s first season as Clemson head coach. The 1979 Tigers held Georgia to seven points and Notre Dame to 10 and held three ranked foes to 12 points per game.
1980s
1. Nebraska (97.3 percentile, eight top-fives, four No. 1s)
2. Miami (93.4, four top-fives, four No. 1s)
3. Oklahoma (92.8, three top-fives)
4. Michigan (91.5, two top-fives, one No. 1)
5. Alabama (90.4, one top-five)
6. Georgia (89.6, one top-five)
7. Florida State (89.4, three top-fives)
8. UCLA (87.6, one top-five)
9. Auburn (86.4, two top-fives)
10. Arkansas (85.5)
Other No. 1s: Pitt
Like the 1950s, the decade of the 1980s was one of change, and for similar reasons. While plenty of big-name coaches continued to dominate – Switzer, Nebraska’s Tom Osborne, Michigan’s Bo Schembechler, Penn State’s Joe Paterno – others like Bryant and Ohio State’s Woody Hayes retired. From 1980-84, five straight teams won their first AP titles; this was a parity-friendly blip the sport hadn’t really seen before.
By the mid 1980s, however, power had coagulated once again. New heavyweights Miami and Florida State dominated next to OU, Nebraska and others, but honestly, things could have easily turned out much differently. Nebraska graded out as the No. 1 team in 1980, 1982, 1983 and 1984, going a combined 44-6 in those seasons, but managed to always lose the one game they couldn’t in the national title race. (Most notable, of course: their Orange Bowl loss to Miami in 1983’s de facto national title game.)
Five best teams: 1980 Nebraska (99.5%), 1983 Nebraska (99.4%), 1980 Pitt (99.2%), 1986 Miami (99.1%), 1987 Miami (99.1%)
Nebraska wasn’t the only “lose the game you can’t afford to” team of the decade. It’s pretty noticeable that of the five most highly graded teams, only one (1987 Miami) actually won the national title. It’s fascinating to think of what might have unfolded had a playoff been in place.
If we’re calling 1971 Nebraska the best team of all time, by the way, I guess we’ll call the 1980 Huskers the best two-loss team ever. They lost to Florida State (third in SP+) and Oklahoma (seventh) by a combined eight points and outscored 10 other opponents by an average of 44-7.
Five best offenses: 1983 Nebraska (99.98%), 1988 Oklahoma State (99.95%), 1980 Nebraska (99.9%), 1980 BYU (99.9%), 1981 BYU (99.8%)
It’s nice when numbers and narratives align properly. Barry Sanders’ otherworldly 1988 season not only produced numbers we’ve never seen, it also produced one of the most perfect offenses ever.
Five best defenses: 1988 Auburn (99.3), 1980 Florida State (99.2), 1980 Pitt (98.9), 1983 Texas (98.7), 1986 Auburn (98.7)
Yep, they were still playing the defense-and-field-position game down in the SEC, none better than Pat Dye and Auburn, who produced a pair of the decade’s best defenses in a three-year span.
1990s
1. Florida State (97.0 percentile, eight top-fives, three No. 1s)
2. Nebraska (96.1, six top-fives, two No. 1s)
3. Florida (94.5, five top-fives)
4. Tennessee (93.6, two top-fives)
5. Penn State (92.8, two top-fives, one No. 1)
6. Michigan (92.0, one top-five)
7. Ohio State (90.1, three top-fives, one No. 1)
8. Texas A&M (88.4, two top-fives)
9. Miami (87.4, two top-fives, one No. 1)
10. Notre Dame (87.2, two top-fives)
Other No. 1s: Alabama, Washington
Even with both Miami and Oklahoma fading under the cloud of NCAA penalties and coaching changes — and even with the 85-man scholarship limit instituted to encourage parity — we still had a “Nebraska vs. the state of Florida” vibe going for much of the 1990s.
Osborne’s Huskers lost to Miami and Florida State in respective Orange Bowls before finally breaking through and winning national titles in 1994, 1995 and 1997. FSU finished in the AP top four in every year of the decade and won a pair of titles, while Florida enjoyed its all-time peak with a run of five top-five finishes and the 1996 title. Half of the top 10 changed between the 1980s and 1990s, but this was still a pretty parity-unfriendly time.
Five best teams: 1995 Nebraska (99.7), 1991 Washington (99.3), 1998 Ohio State (98.9), 1998 Kansas State (98.9), 1994 Penn State (98.8)
The 1998 season was loaded with what-ifs. Both Bill Snyder’s miraculous turnaround at Kansas State and John Cooper’s Ohio State rebuild peaked with brilliant teams in 1998. But the Buckeyes suffered an all-time upset (28-24 to Nick Saban’s Michigan State), and Kansas State, finally out of Nebraska’s shadow, stumbled in a Big 12 championship game classic against Texas A&M. That opened the door for Tennessee (third in SP+) to beat FSU (seventh) for the national title. A College Football Playoff that year would have been incredible.
Five best offenses: 1995 Nebraska (99.9), 1994 Penn State (99.9), 1990 Houston (99.6), 1998 Tulane (99.2), 1994 Florida (99.2)
I guess a CFP — or at least a BCS — would have also been useful in 1994, huh? While the 1995 Nebraska team was indeed an all-timer, the 1994 team had to scrape by without star quarterback Tommie Frazier (out with blood clots) and was, on average, inferior to a Penn State team that finished second in both the AP and coaches polls. The PSU offense, led by All-Americans Kerry Collins, Ki-Jana Carter, Bobby Engram and Kyle Brady, was nearly perfect.
Five best defenses: 1992 Alabama (99.2), 1990 Clemson (98.9), 1999 Wisconsin (98.8), 1999 Mississippi State (98.7), 1992 Arizona (98.7)
Bama endured some ups and downs in the 1990s, but the Tide snared another title (and No. 1 SP+ ranking) in 1992 thanks to a Bryant-esque defense that allowed only two of 13 opponents to score more than 13 points.
2000s
1. Texas (95.7, six top-fives, one No. 1)
2. Oklahoma (94.6, seven top-fives)
3. Florida (91.5, four top-fives, one No. 1)
4. Virginia Tech (90.4, three top-fives)
5. LSU (90.3, four top-fives, two No. 1s)
6. Georgia (90.3, one top-five)
7. Ohio State (89.7, two top-fives, one No. 1)
8. USC (88.3, six top-fives, one No. 1)
9. Texas Tech (84.3)
10. Miami (83.2, three top-fives, two No. 1s)
Other No. 1s: Alabama, Kansas State
By the end of the 2000s, the SEC had officially taken over college football. Its average rating leaped from 10.3 from 2000-05 to 15.9 from 2006-09, powered by surging programs at Florida (under Urban Meyer) and Alabama (under Saban). But the decade as a whole was dominated by two Big 12 programs — the conference benefited severely from offensive innovation — and, by 2002, Pete Carroll’s USC.
Mack Brown’s Texas won at least 10 games every year from 2001-09, with five AP top-five finishes and a classic 2005 title, while Bob Stoops’ Oklahoma managed five straight AP top-six finishes (with one title) to start the decade, then fielded one of the best offenses ever in 2008. And after going 11-13 in 2000-01 (which tamped down the overall averages), USC went 82-9 from 2002-08, with seven straight top-four finishes and two AP titles.
Five best teams: 2001 Miami (99.4), 2008 Florida (99.4), 2004 USC (99.3), 2005 Texas (99.1), 2001 Florida (99.0)
Anything over 99.0 in the percentile range is best-of-the-best territory, so you can’t really say that SP+ doesn’t properly respect 2005 Texas. But it was still a surprise to see the Horns falling below the 99.4 threshold hit by 2001 Miami and 2008 Florida. The main culprit: a defense that ranked a mere 12th overall.
Five best offenses: 2005 USC (99.9), 2008 Oklahoma (99.9), 2004 Boise State (99.8), 2004 Louisville (99.7), 2008 Texas (99.7)
The 2004 Liberty Bowl was one of the wildest bowls you’ll ever see — Louisville gained 564 yards and overcame a 10-point halftime deficit to prevail 44-40 over Boise State — and we can also say it featured two of the most incredible offenses of an offense-happy decade.
Five best defenses: 2005 Alabama (98.9), 2001 Miami (98.8), 2002 Notre Dame (98.5), 2003 LSU (98.3), 2009 Alabama (98.1)
The SP+ ratings from before 2005 are determined entirely by points scored and allowed. So when you see that 2001 Miami fielded the second-best defense of the decade, realize that it’s not even getting credit for its incredible seven defensive touchdowns. An utterly ridiculous unit.
2010s
1. Alabama (98.3, 10 top-fives, eight No. 1s)
2. Ohio State (94.1, eight top-fives, one No. 1)
3. LSU (93.3, five top-fives)
4. Oklahoma (92.7, two top-fives)
5. Georgia (91.1, five top-fives)
6. Wisconsin (90.2, two top-fives)
7. Clemson (88.0, three top-fives)
8. Texas A&M (86.8, one top-five)
9. Oklahoma State (85.2, one top-five)
10. Auburn (85.2)
Other No. 1s: Florida State
Only two programs have managed a percentile average over 98.0 in any of the decades listed here: Bear Bryant’s Alabama in the 1970s and Nick Saban’s Alabama in the 2010s. When we complain about the sport being too predictable overall, it’s virtually all Bama’s fault. Ohio State’s run of brilliance under Urban Meyer and Clemson’s under Dabo Swinney, fell into the range of normal brilliance, not the “either first or second in SP+ in every year of the decade” brilliance the Tide established here.
That said, this was still a rather parity-unfriendly decade. Five teams (Bama, Ohio State, LSU, Georgia and Clemson) accounted for 31 of the decade’s 50 SP+ top-five spots, 21 of 30 after the CFP was introduced in 2014. It’s a smaller group of elite teams than what ruled the sport in the 1970s, but you do have to go back to the ’70s to see a ruling class rule this much.
Five best teams: 2012 Alabama (99.5), 2019 Ohio State (99.4), 2018 Alabama (99.0), 2016 Alabama (98.9), 2011 Alabama (98.9)
Find yourself someone who loves you like SP+ loved 2019 Ohio State. The Buckeyes suffered a gut-wrenching loss to Clemson in the CFP, which prevented them from earning a shot at an incredible LSU team. But while LSU peaked late — and at a level we rarely see — Ohio State played at the highest level for the season as a whole. It was the only non-Bama team to crack the top five here.
Five best offenses: 2011 Oklahoma State (99.9), 2018 Oklahoma (99.8), 2011 Baylor (99.6), 2019 Alabama (99.5), 2012 Baylor (99.4)
Five best defenses: 2011 Alabama (99.8), 2011 LSU (99.6), 2012 Notre Dame (99.3), 2012 Alabama (99.2), 2019 Iowa (99.0)
Oklahoma State was narrowly denied a shot at LSU in the 2011 BCS championship game; we got a Bama-LSU rematch instead. Granted, a low-rated LSU-Bama rematch that year seemed like the final prompt in the push toward a College Football Playoff — a net positive, perhaps — but it deprived us of watching maybe the decade’s best defense facing the decade’s best offense. Tyrann Mathieu & Co. against Justin Blackmon and the OSU passing game? That would have been awfully fun.
2020s
Obviously we’re only three years into the current decade, so we’ll see how things take shape from here. But just for posterity, here’s where things stand for now.
1. Alabama (98.9)
2. Ohio State (98.2)
3. Georgia (97.8)
4. Michigan (91.5)
5. Clemson (91.2)
6. Oklahoma (89.4)
7. Notre Dame (88.4)
8. Iowa (88.1)
9. Utah (87.9)
10. Cincinnati (86.9)
Five best teams: 2020 Alabama (99.7), 2022 Georgia (99.4), 2021 Georgia (99.3), 2022 Michigan (98.9), 2022 Alabama (98.9)
Five best offenses: 2020 Alabama (99.9), 2020 Ohio State (99.2), 2021 Ohio State (98.8), 2021 Alabama (98.7), 2020 Florida (98.7)
Five best defenses: 2021 Georgia (99.0), 2022 Iowa (98.9), 2022 Georgia (98.5), 2020 Iowa (98.4), 2022 Illinois (98.4)
Alabama’s 2020 perfection (and Georgia’s 2020 flaws) give the Tide a narrow overall advantage despite Georgia’s back-to-back titles. We’ll see if that remains the case moving forward.
The last 100 years in a nutshell
Not including the incomplete 2020s, 39 programs showed up in the top 10 for at least one decade.
7 times: Alabama, Ohio State
5 times: Michigan, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas
4 times: Georgia, LSU, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Penn State
3 times: Army, Miami, Texas A&M, USC
2 times: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ole Miss, UCLA, Wisconsin
1 time: Clemson, Dartmouth, Duke, Fordham, Kentucky, Oklahoma State, Penn, Pitt, Purdue, TCU, Texas Tech, Tulane, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
In recent decades, we have introduced one to two new teams to the club in each decade — the top 10 for the 1970s was made up entirely by programs that had appeared in a prior top-10 list, but the 1980s brought three new teams to the party (Miami, Florida State, Auburn), the 1990s brought one (Florida), the 2000s brought two (Virginia Tech, Texas Tech) and the 2010s brought two (Clemson, Oklahoma State). And the top team on the list has been different for each decade since Alabama went back-to-back in the 1960s and 1970s.
Alabama’s absurd level of dominance in the 2010s was unique, and obviously Bama, Georgia and Ohio State have all posted particularly high percentile averages in this young decade. Maybe that turns out to be sustainable. But it’s rather rare historically. And it’s not 1970s-level ruling class domination either. (Yet.)