Boxing fans love to predict outcomes. Project winners. And ahead of this weekend’s superfight between Gervonta Davis and Ryan Garcia on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, we’re sure to get plenty of wild predictions.
Some will pick a winner based on the size differential or which is more physically imposing. Others will make their pick based on either fighter’s body of work. But in boxing, just like in other sports, anything can happen.
I excel in giving information and context about a fighter’s strengths and weaknesses. However, at the end of the day, I’m just a fan like everybody else, and I love this fight.
A tall task? Not for Davis
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Will Gervonta Davis, Ryan Garcia fight live up to expectations?
Timothy Bradley Jr. and Mark Kriegel discuss what fans can expect from Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia.
It’s rare, but sometimes size and height could be a fighter’s disadvantage. Boxers like Davis prefer a stouter opponent, but he shines against taller opponents. Just ask former 140-pound second-tier champion Mario Barrios or four-division champ Leo Santa Cruz. Both Barrios (5-foot-10) and Santa Cruz (5-foot-7) got knocked out by Davis.
Barrios and Santa Cruz had a significant height advantage over Davis (5-foot-5½), and both failed to maintain the proper distance to diffuse Davis’ offense. Santa Cruz is a pressure fighter and naturally couldn’t help but exchange with Davis on the inside, which led to his demise. Barrios is a pure boxer who had early success, but he began to break down late from Davis’ power, accuracy and bodywork. Perhaps in this matchup, a size advantage means a bigger target and increases visibility for Davis’ offense, and violent counters.
Garcia may be taller (5-foot-10) with all the physical advantages, but Davis’ experience, timing, positioning and explosive hand speed with power are far superior to the talented, lightning-quick-powerful punching Garcia brings.
Garcia has the speed advantage, but is that enough?
Garcia’s ultra-fast hand speed and reflexes, combined with his height, make him an anomaly in the lower divisions. Leverage plays a considerable role in a taller fighter’s punching mechanics and power. His punches are uber accurate, notably his left hook. In his recent fights, new trainer Joe Goossen has helped him implement a non-telegraphed right-hand cross, followed by that left hook. That combo paired with a more authoritative jab helps up front and hides his money shot: the hook. Is that enough to beat Davis? Absolutely not. Garcia’s boxing style is stiff and upright, with his chin lifted toward the sky. He has minimal bend in his knees, and he occasionally locks them when moving forward, handicapping lateral mobility.
Garcia is a fast starter who seems overly anxious. His offense is sharp, mainly crisp single-pot shots and combinations. But it feels forced. Maybe it’s done by design, as an attempt to fluster opponents with his powerful, blazing hand speed.
Garcia occasionally brings his left hook to his opponent’s midsection while using little head movement afterward. He doesn’t bend at his waist to change levels and shrink his target areas, either. The last southpaw Garcia faced, Luke Campbell, floored Garcia in the second round with a looping left counter, which is one of Davis’ signature punches. Now, if Tank landed that same punch — considering he is one of the most ferocious finishers in boxing — what would have happened? Give Garcia credit though, he pulled himself up off the canvas and knocked out Campbell in the seventh round. Although his positioning was poor during the knockdown, technical error or not, he survived the knockdown because Campbell isn’t a puncher. Davis has several weapons that can end this match in a blink of an eye, including uppercuts that he can whip in a split second. And a solid right hook lead or counter.
Also, Garcia hasn’t shown the capability to fight inside the pocket. His development in that area has been minimal. Nor has he learned to box off his back foot, like most tall fighters who commit to a range outside where they have the leg up on the shorter opponent.
Another factor to consider is the rehydration clause, as Garcia can only put on 10 pounds after the weigh-in on Friday morning. It’s been over two years since Garcia tipped the scales under 138 pounds, and the contracted weight for this fight is 136 pounds. This will severely drain Garcia and weaken him, decreasing his punch resistance and making him more susceptible to getting knocked out.
Davis’ strengths and experience
Davis is a multi-faceted boxer with freakish power and skillful speed. He can box or brawl. Davis can maintain his distance with great footwork and lateral movement. He can stop on a dime while responsibly retreating defensively and he can turn any punch over or under with authority. With 16 stoppage victories in the first three rounds, Davis has proved he can catch and hurt his opponents early or late. He has more experience managing the time and energy, knowing when to hit the accelerator or cruise until the right moment. Davis is also a better inside fighter. and has fought better competition which matters significantly as no one gets wiser without going through difficult situations. He’s been battle-hardened and pushed psychologically.
Just revisit his battle against Isaac “Pitbull” Cruz, fighting most of the night with an injured hand.
Fans sometimes forget that timing has a way of beating speed, and just as Romero was seemingly up on the cards right before he was set up and timed by one of Davis’ brutal lefts.
Garcia only has one option, because altering his style in the biggest fight of his career isn’t ideal. Garcia is predicting a second-round knockout, and I have to say he’s right, to a degree, because anything after that is bad news. Davis settles down and finds his range after two rounds. But during those first two rounds, he is vulnerable to opposition unfamiliarity. Forcing Davis onto his back foot immediately sounds like an impossible mission. But Garcia isn’t going to win any other way, so six minutes or less is all he has. I will set my stopwatch for eight minutes; after that, it is over for Garcia.
With all that said, this fight will end with “Tank” Davis knocking Garcia out.
Ian Parker’s best bet
Davis and Garcia will put their undefeated records on the line in this highly anticipated matchup that the boxing world has been waiting on for some time. Both fighters possess one-punch KO power, but they both have completely different styles. Garcia will try to use his speed and nasty left hook to keep Davis from getting inside. Davis will use his jab to get inside and will look to use his signature power in order to break Garcia down. Both fighters will be looking for that highlight-reel KO, so taking the bet that the fight doesn’t go the distance makes a lot of sense. However, I think Davis will be able to get past the reach of Garcia and find his chin at some point in the middle rounds. Davis is familiar with being the shorter fighter, but with the way Garcia enters and leaves his chin up, all it takes is one shot from Tank and that will be all she wrote.
Prediction: Gervonta Davis (winner)