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Tim KavanaghESPN.com
There are some who say that the Western Conference playoff race is merely about the order in which the eight teams currently in playoff position will finish. The numbers from FiveThirtyEight back that up to some degree, as only two non-playoff teams currently have playoff chances greater than 1%: the Nashville Predators (34%) and the Calgary Flames (22%).
The East is an entirely different story.
Yes, the Eastern powerhouses all loaded up, so it’s unclear whether one of the wild cards will be able to mount much of a challenge against the Boston Bruins or Carolina Hurricanes in a seven-game series. But at least we’ll have an exciting race to the finish.
As of today, the New York Islanders (72 points in 65 games, 91-point pace) and Pittsburgh Penguins (71 points in 62 games, 94-point pace) hold the coveted final two spots. There are four teams nipping at their proverbial heels:
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The Buffalo Sabres have 68 points through 62 games after a narrow loss against the Oilers on Monday night. They play in a game of massive importance tonight, as they’ll visit the Isles in an ESPN+/Hulu exclusive broadcast. Following that, 10 of their final 19 games will be played against teams currently in playoff position (nine of which are current Eastern playoff teams).
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Buffalo’s penultimate game of the season is against the Ottawa Senators. The Sens, fresh off their trade for defenseman Jakob Chychrun, had rattled off five straight wins prior to Monday’s loss to the Blackhawks, and sit at 68 points through 63 games. They’ll play current playoff teams in 12 of their final 19 contests.
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Following their Presidents’ Trophy season, the Florida Panthers have had quite the diminished returns in 2022-23. But with 68 points through 64 games, they are also still in the mix. Eight of their remaining 18 games are against current playoff clubs; they’ll also play Ottawa (twice), Buffalo and …
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… the Washington Capitals, who you’ll remember were the ones trading players away ahead of the deadline. Nevertheless, through 65 games, they are at 68 points, and 11 of their final 17 are against teams in playoff position today.
As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Pittsburgh Penguins
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York Islanders
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers
Western Conference
C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Edmonton Oilers
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Winnipeg Jets
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Colorado Avalanche
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Seattle Kraken
Tuesday’s games
Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).
Vegas Golden Knights at Florida Panthers, 7 p.m.
Carolina Hurricanes at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
St. Louis Blues at Arizona Coyotes, 9 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche, 9 p.m.
Anaheim Ducks at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Monday’s scoreboard
Watch In the Crease on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.
Edmonton Oilers 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
San Jose Sharks 3, Winnipeg Jets 2 (OT)
Calgary Flames 5, Dallas Stars 4
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Ottawa Senators 0
Los Angeles Kings 4, Washington Capitals 2
Vancouver Canucks 4, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 103
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 20
Points pace: 136
Next game: vs. EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 109
Next game: @ NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 103
Next game: vs. PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 24%
Tragic number: 37
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 89
Next game: @ SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 11%
Tragic number: 35
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 35%
Tragic number: 33
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 85
Next game: vs. CHI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 32
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 23
Metropolitan Division
Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 21
Points pace: 121
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 88
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 20
Points pace: 116
Next game: vs. TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 46%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 20
Points pace: 94
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 74%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 86
Next game: vs. NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 11%
Tragic number: 31
Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 77
Next game: @ TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 26
Points: 46
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 13
Central Division
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 102
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 94%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 96
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 67%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 21
Points pace: 100
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 21
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ ARI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 34%
Tragic number: 37
Points: 59
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Points pace: 78
Next game: @ ARI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 25
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 68
Next game: vs. STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 16
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 64
Next game: @ DET (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 13
Pacific Division
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 19
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 82
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 102
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 96%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 98
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 94%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 88
Next game: @ MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 22%
Tragic number: 31
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. ANA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 21
Points: 50
Regulation wins: 11
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 65
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 64
Next game: @ COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 12
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order at the top of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team may move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.
Points: 46
Regulation wins: 15
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 50
Regulation wins: 11
Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 52
Regulation wins: 16
Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17
Points: 57
Regulation wins: 16
Points: 59
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 27
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16: