When putting together our list of the top 100 players of all time, there were plenty of debates about how peak performance and career longevity intersected. For young players in particular, injuries can completely shift a career’s trajectory and alter legacies — as Pete Reiser, J.R. Richard and others learned. Nolan Ryan, Derek Jeter and Cal Ripken are all-time greats because they were great — but also because they were fortunate enough to stay on the field for many years.
What does that mean for the young stars of today? What Juan Soto has accomplished so far is extraordinary, almost unprecedented, and it has placed him on a career trajectory of an all-time great. We can hope that this continues for him, for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the best of baseball’s other youngsters, as they follow the flight paths of some of their diamond ancestors.
I asked Sarah Langs for help in finding the best historical comparisons for the youngest generation of stars (for the purpose of this exercise, age 27 or younger) who might one day be part of the conversation for the top 100 players.
The List: 100-51 | 50-26 | 25-1
Key links: Full rankings | Snubs | Debating our selections
Doolittle: The difficult case of Oscar Charleston
Juan Soto, Nationals
Historical comp: Ted Williams
It’s like the mold used to create Williams the ballplayer was stored away until Soto was born in 1998, and then applied again: Soto is a complete doppelgänger of Williams as hitter, with the (great) competitive arrogance, the patience, the left-handed power. One difference so far: Soto has learned earlier in his lifetime to take defense more seriously than Williams, who regretted later in life that he did not work on this part of his game.
Soto made his debut four years ago at age 19, and considering the amazing start to his career, he has a chance to be an inner-circle Hall of Fame-caliber player.
Ronald Acuña, Jr., Braves
Historical comp: Willie Mays
As Langs noted, a Mays comparison feels a little scary to attach to anyone. But Mays was one of five players to hit 400-plus homers and steal 300-plus bases (the others: Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Andre Dawson and Carlos Beltran), and Acuña, who just turned 24 two months ago, already has 105 homers and 78 steals. Even if the Atlanta coaching staff starts to counsel the young outfielder against a reckless pursuit of stolen-base numbers, to give him a better chance to stay injury free and remain in the lineup, Acuña also seems to improve as a hitter month to month with his absurd all-fields power.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
Historical comp: Not his father, a member of the Hall of Fame. Rather: Manny Ramirez
Vladimir Jr. has more patience than his dad, undoubtedly; Jr.’s 86 walks last year, in only his third season in the majors, were more than Vlad Sr. drew in any one of his 16 big league seasons. And Vladimir Jr. seems to have a special ability to recognize and hit breaking pitches, which is something that distinguished Manny.
Two years ago, we still might’ve wondered about Vlad Jr.’s career longevity, given his physical conditioning. But he has spent another offseason apparently training with diligence, reducing his weight even more, increasing his strength.
Fernando Tatis, Jr., Padres
Historical comp: Alex Rodriguez
With more speed and rangy flexibility, FTJ is probably a better athlete than the young Alex Rodriguez was. But Rodriguez was more regimented in his approach at the plate, and had early-career health. It remains to be seen whether Tatis Jr. can remain at shortstop. But whether he’s an infielder or outfielder, he is a transformative offensive player. Another comp might be Robin Yount, the Hall of Fame inductee who moved from shortstop to the outfield — winning two MVPs along the way and finishing his career with 3,142 hits.
Corbin Burnes, Brewers
Historical comp: Roy Halladay
Pitching over the four major league seasons of 1998 to 2001, Roy Halladay had a 4.95 ERA and was bounced out of the Blue Jays’ rotation. Halladay was dispatched to the minors with orders to alter his delivery, to try to create more movement. In 2002, he made the All-Star team for the first time.
In 2019, Burnes, then 24 years old, had an 8.82 ERA for the Brewers, and like Halladay, he was optioned to the minors in an effort to find solutions. And now, like Halladay, he has developed absurd movement and found a way to harness that stuff.
Walker Buehler, Dodgers
Historical comp: Nolan Ryan
No, never mind, we take that back. Nobody should ever be compared to Ryan, who might’ve been the sport’s most unique player prior to the arrival of Shohei Ohtani. Ryan finished his career with 5,386 innings, 2,795 walks and 5,714 strikeouts, and Buehler won’t approach those numbers. Nobody will, ever.
But like a young Ryan, Buehler’s ability to miss bats separates him from his peers — he has 632 punchouts in his first 573⅓ innings — and given the preeminence of the Dodgers, Buehler looks likely to have a chance to climb postseason leaderboards.
Will Smith, Dodgers
Historical comp: Carlton Fisk
In his size and steady demeanor, Smith has long reminded evaluators of Buster Posey. But if the electronic strike zone is implemented early in Smith’s career — and that seems to be very likely — then the catcher position will become more devoted to offense, something that is already a strength for Smith. In his first three seasons, he has an Adjusted OPS+ of 136. For the sake of context, here’s how other catchers fared in their first three seasons (of more than a handful of plate appearances):
Posey: 149
Johnny Bench: 130
Yogi Berra: 116
Fisk: 136
Yordan Alvarez, Astros
Historical comp: Willie McCovey
Of all of Langs’ comps, this one might fit the best — like McCovey, Alvarez is a big, rangy, intimidating left-handed hitter, someone who should be feared by pitchers. Now that Alvarez’s knee issues have been addressed surgically, he should be scaring pitchers for many years to come. His career Adjusted OPS+ is a staggering 150 for his first 233 games.
Corey Seager, Rangers
Historical comp: Cal Ripken Jr.
A confession is necessary here — the pairing of Seager and Ripken is about height, because Seager’s about the same size as Ripken. Seager is probably a better pure hitter than Ripken was, but Ripken was a much better defender and didn’t move to third base until late in his career, while Seager might have to make the move in the next few years. Most importantly, Ripken stayed on the field, day after day, year after year. Seager has dealt with a lot of injuries — but the Rangers signed him to a $325 million deal believing that will change.
Carlos Correa, free agent
Historical comp: Ernie Banks
When he’s on the field, he’s one of the best, particularly in the postseason. Correa appears to be a natural for the big stage. The same question that hangs over Seager looms over Correa, as well — will his early-career injuries be an aberration, or the first signs of a larger concern?
Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
Historical comp: Derek Jeter
OK, the selection of this particular historical twin belongs to me, and not Sarah, because I see so many similarities between Bichette and the young Jeter I covered. The seemingly relentless focus on baseball, a trait that can propel a player through weariness and slumps. “He is fiercely competitive, every single day, from the moment he wakes up to the moment he goes to sleep,” said Dan Shulman, the longtime Jays and ESPN broadcaster. “That’s Bo. … He’s a gym rat.” That was the way Jeter was, too.
The aggressive approach at the plate is the same; Bichette loves to attack pitches in the manner that Jeter did. Jeter was never an elite defender, nor is Bichette, but increasingly, Bichette is a reliable fielder, as Derek was. Bichette was not even his own team’s biggest star last year, but he put up some serious numbers in his first full season in the big leagues — a league-high 191 hits, 121 runs, 102 RBIs, 60 extra-base hits, 25 steals in 26 attempts. Jeter never won an MVP, was never his league’s best player for a three- or four-year stretch, but he finished his career sixth all time in hits and 11th all time in runs. Bichette has the early look of a player who will be that sort of player.