When Washington Capitals winger Garnet Hathaway scored an empty-net goal on Saturday night, it clinched their win against the Columbus Blue Jackets. But it also extended one of the hottest betting trends in the NHL.
Earlier in the period, the Jackets’ Eric Robinson scored, so Hathaway’s tally meant the total in the third period went over 1.5 goals. That marked the 11th consecutive Capitals game that hit the third period over on the total — a streak stretching all the way back to Nov. 14.
The Capitals’ games have hit the third-period over in 16 of 23 contests this season. There have been 51 goals scored in the third period this season in Washington’s games, including three empty-net goals by Alex Ovechkin.
According to analyst Chris Otto, the New Jersey Devils (18 out of 22 games), Edmonton Oilers (18 out of 23 games), Colorado Avalanche (17 out of 22 games), Boston Bruins (16 out of 21 games) and Seattle Kraken (18 out of 24 games) are the leaders for having their games hit the third-period over.
The Carolina Hurricanes (11 of their 23 games) and San Jose Sharks (12 of 25 games), meanwhile, are the only teams in the NHL whose games hit the third-period over less than 50% of the time.
The team with the lowest average total goals in the third period? That’s the Dallas Stars (1.71), although the New York Islanders (1.85) aren’t too far behind.
Just something to keep in mind when you’re consider some in-game wagers or period-specific prop bets.
Experts’ Corner (Q&A)
Todd Cordell started young. As a 10-year-old growing up in Canada, he would scrounge up quarters in the laundry room for $2 Proline parlay wagers that his father would put in for him at the corner store. “Maybe in hindsight I shouldn’t have,” he said, “but it was only two dollars.”
As far as breaking into the industry, Cordell was a daily fantasy writer for Elite Fantasy when he moved over to the NHL beat. He was part of a group hockey wagering chat with Alex Moretto. supervising editor at The Score, and eventually joined that outlet as a hockey wagering analyst. His daily player prop wagers are a must read. We caught up with Todd recently to talk props and how to make hockey betting better.
It would seem like player prop bets are a natural extension from doing daily fantasy work.
CORDELL: For sure. It’s kind of the same things I’d look at when I’m building a DFS lineup. Like high-volume shooters, because there are bonuses for five shots on goal and that sort of thing. So I’m always looking for players that might face a crappy defense pair gives up lots of shots or shoot a lot and are efficient in doing it.
You’re probably best known for your shots on goal props. I love those bets, but sometimes they can be infuriating. Like I had Seattle’s Jaden Schwartz and the over the other day against Tampa Bay after two weeks of a shot bender and he put up one against them. Are you someone that’ll look into what happened if a bet doesn’t work out?
CORDELL: For me, I’ll get so caught up in their trending numbers that I’ll look past the matchup and then get burned by it. One thing with Seattle especially is that they play super slow – near the bottom in shots for and shots against per 60 minutes. There are no shots in their games. So that kind of thing can happen more if the pace is slower. Then you have a team like the Devils, who are shot machines – getting tons, giving up tons.
How crucial is pace to what you do? I feel like we don’t talk about that enough in hockey wagering, compared to say the NBA.
CORDELL: I keep an Excel spreadsheet of the last 10 games and it compares the attempts they’re generating with the attempts they’re preventing. Something with expected goals and that sort of thing. If a team is only giving up 25 shots per night, they’re much less likely to generate enough chances to win you that kind of bet. Same thing with goals. If you’re betting the over, if doesn’t matter if the goalie they’re playing sucks – if a team is only generating 24 shots a night, it’s going to be hard to score three or four goals. Pace is a huge thing, especially if both teams play fast. Florida is one of my favorite teams this year for that reason. Especially when they fall behind.
The Washington Capitals and Buffalo Sabres found that out the hard way recently.
CORDELL: Whenever Florida gets down, I’m like “oh baby,” I’m getting on all these props because they’re going to go nuclear.
Are there players you love to wager on? Are there some you avoid?
CORDELL: I’ve loved [Dallas Stars forward] Roope Hintz this season. His last home game was the first one where he didn’t hit the over on shots at home. Ryan Hartman‘s been going nuclear since he was put on Minnesota’s top line. But I don’t just look at the players, I look at the opportunities. When Bowen Byrum and Sam Girard were out, obviously Cale Makar was going to play more for Colorado. With Nathan MacKinnon out, since he took a billion shots per game, there were more shots available on the power play for Makar. So I was riding him like seven games in a row due to injury. I avoid inefficient shooters. I’ll watch to see who might be taken off the power play. Then there are some players like Jeff Skinner who get six shots one game and then won’t get a shot the next game. He’s either really high or really low. He’s burned me a few times.
What’s your favorite bet on hockey?
CORDELL: Before this year, I’d have said money lines, but there’s such an edge on props. It’s not a market that a lot of people look to. Like, if you’re going to the bar with your friends and they want to lay some money on the game, they’re not saying “oh, I wonder what Trevor Zegras‘s shot total is going to be tonight.” [Laughs] Also, because it’s not a huge market, there isn’t a lot of movement on the lines and sharp money. You have to get a money line first thing in the morning or they’re gone, but you can get a shot prop line at like 6 p.m.
What’s a sucker bet on hockey?
CORDELL: Correlated parlays. A lot of people like to do same-game parlays because they pay well if they hit. But a lot of people will, say, bet Connor McDavid to get over 1.5 points and then bet a goalie to make over X-amount of saves. But if McDavid gets two or three points in the first period, that goalie could get pulled or has less chance to make saves. I think a lot of people don’t even realize it.
Finally, what would make hockey wagering more fun?
CORDELL: More markets. In football, you can go receiving yards, rushing yards, longest play … there are just so many options. But in hockey, you’ll click on a game and they’ll have [prop] lines for like four players. People like options. And in hockey, there just isn’t enough of them. Like, in football again, if you bet a receiver to get 60 yards, and he gets 59 yards in the first quarter, then some books will adjust the line to whether he can get over 99 yards. There’s no adjustments for players props if, say, McDavid scores two goals and you want to bet if he gets a hat trick. If you want to join the fun late, you can’t.
Trick or Trend
A look at some of the recent betting trends and if they’ll hold
Colorado Avalanche overs
The Avalanche have seen the over hit in their games 71.4% of the time this season, going 14-5-2 against the total. That included their 6-5 loss to the Ottawa Senators on Dec. 4, which was only the second game Avalanche game this season that saw the total at 6.5 goals or higher. Through 20 games, the Avalanche were averaging a league-high 7.15 total goals in regulation per game. They’re 10-2-1 against the total in their last 13 games.
Verdict: Trend
New York Islanders puck line
The Islanders are spiraling right now, having gone winless in 10 straight games. They’re 7-13-0 on the puck line this season, including 1-10 in their last 11 games. Much of this is due to the Islanders having been the favorite in 11 of their 20 games, despite residing in the basement of their division; and the fact that they’re the second-worst offensive team in the league this season (1.90 goals per game).
Verdict: Trend
Andrei Vasilevskiy to win the Vezina
The Tampa Bay Lightning goalie continues to lead the futures markets at (+550) to win the award for best goaltender, which is voted on by the league’s general managers. He’s got stellar numbers and finished second for the award last season. But there are two reasons why his status as front-runner is specious. First, that other goalies like Jack Campbell (+1200) of the Toronto Maple Leafs, Igor Shesterkin (+900) of the New York Rangers, Jacob Markstrom (+1400) of the Calgary Flames and Tristan Jarry (+3000) of the Pittsburgh Penguins have posted better numbers than him. Second, because only two goalies in the history of the award have won the Vezina after winning the Stanley Cup the previous season: Billy Smith of the Islanders in 1981-82, the first year the award was handed out; and the Devils’ Martin Brodeur in 2003-04.
Verdict: Trick