College football betting nuggets: Home underdog Nebraska looking to reverse recent trends

Saturday

Missouri Tigers at No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-38, 59.5), Noon ET on ESPN

• This would be the 4th-largest underdog Missouri has been in any game since the 1978 FBS/FCS split and the largest since 1996 (+50 at No. 5 Nebraska).

• This would be the largest favorite Georgia has been in a game against an SEC opponent since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS when favored by at least 30 points against an SEC team since 1978.

• Missouri is 0-8 ATS this season, the only remaining FBS team yet to cover a game.

• The over is 6-2 in games involving Missouri this season.

• The over is 6-1 in games involving Missouri against an AP top five opponent since the Tigers joined the SEC in 2012.

• Missouri is 6-16 ATS as a double-digit underdog since joining the SEC in 2012.

• Missouri has failed to cover 14 of its last 20 games against ranked opponents, including 2-4 ATS under Eli Drinkwitz (since 2020).

• The total has gone over in 4 of the last 5 meetings (since 2016).

• Georgia is 19-11 ATS in games in November or later under Kirby Smart (since 2016). However, the Bulldogs are 2-3 ATS in such games since 2020.

No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes (-15, 64) at Nebraska Cornhuskers, Noon ET

• Ohio State is 8-1-1 ATS as a road favorite since Ryan Day’s first full season in 2019. That’s the best such cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 10 games).

• The over is 7-1-2 in Ohio State road games since Day’s first full season in 2019.

• Ohio State is 13-5-1 ATS in conference games since Day’s first full season in 2019.

• Ohio State is 6-1 ATS against Nebraska since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten in 2011.

• Nebraska is 5-12 ATS as a home underdog over the last 15 seasons, including 2-4 ATS under Scott Frost (since 2018).

• Nebraska has covered four of its last five as an underdog, regardless of venue (three of the four covers were on the road).

No. 10 Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5, 76.5), Noon ET on ABC

• This would be the fourth time this season an AP top 10 team is an underdog against an unranked opponent, the most instances in a single season since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.

• AP top 10 teams are 20-13 ATS as an underdog against unranked opponents since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, including 10-3 ATS since 2005 and 4-1 ATS over the last five seasons.

• This will be the 33rd time an unranked North Carolina team takes on an AP top 10 opponent since the 1978 FBS/FCS split. The Tar Heels were underdogs in all 32 previous instances, with an average spread of +16.6. North Carolina is 4-28 outright in those games, but has covered 16 of its last 23 (since 1995), including four straight.

• Wake Forest is 16-10 ATS as a road underdog under Dave Clawson (since 2014), including 11-4 ATS in its last 15 such games.

• Wake Forest has covered 11 of its last 15 when the line is between -3 and +3.

• The over is 5-2 in North Carolina games in Mack Brown’s second stint with the team (since 2019) when facing a ranked opponent.

• North Carolina is 9-3 outright following a loss since 2019.

• North Carolina has failed to cover three straight games. The last time the Tar Heels failed to cover four straight was in 2017 under Larry Fedora (five straight).

Liberty Flames at No. 15 Ole Miss Rebels (-9.5, 67.5), Noon ET

• This would be the third time this season Ole Miss is a single-digit favorite as an AP top 15 team playing an unranked opponent. The Rebels have won and covered each of the previous two instances (LSU, at Tennessee).

• This will be the 2nd time in program history Liberty has faced an SEC opponent. The first instance came on Nov. 17, 2018 at Auburn. The Flames lost 53-0 as a 29-point underdog.

• Liberty is 8-3 ATS as an underdog under Hugh Freeze (since 2019), including 6 straight covers in such games, tied for the 4th-longest active streak in FBS with Coastal Carolina. Nevada (9), California (8) and Tulsa (7) have the top 3 active streaks.

• Liberty is 23-9-1 ATS under Freeze (since 2019), the best cover percentage in FBS over that span.

• Ole Miss is 2-5 ATS under Lane Kiffin (since 2020) against teams with winning records, including 0-3 ATS this season.

No. 23 SMU Mustangs (-5.5, 70.5) at Memphis Tigers, Noon ET on ESPNU

• Memphis has failed to cover in six straight games against AP-ranked opponents, tied for the second-longest active streak in FBS. Only Maryland (seven straight) has a longer active streak.

• Memphis is 9-3 ATS as a home underdog since joining the AAC in 2013, including five straight covers dating to 2017.

• Memphis is 3-9 ATS in conference games under Ryan Silverfield (since 2020).

• The under is 4-0 in Memphis home games this season.

• Memphis has covered 12 of its last 15 games following a bye, including 3-0 ATS under Silverfield.

• SMU is 9-14 ATS when playing on the road since its first full season under Sonny Dykes in 2018, including 3-7 ATS since the start of last season.

• SMU is 4-8 ATS in games played in November or later since 2018.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at No. 2 Cincinnati Bearcats (-22.5, 54.5), 3:30 ET on ESPN2

• Tulsa has covered 10 straight games against AP-ranked opponents, the longest active streak in FBS. It’s also tied for the 4th-longest streak since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.

• Tulsa is 27-17-1 ATS as an underdog under Philip Montgomery (since 2015), including 7 straight covers in such spots, the 3rd-longest active streak in FBS behind Nevada (9) and California (8).

• Tulsa is 26-11-1 ATS in road games under Montgomery (since 2015), the best cover percentage in FBS over that span. The Golden Hurricane have covered 12 of their last 15 road games.

• Cincinnati is 15-8 ATS at home since Luke Fickell’s 2nd season at the helm in 2018, including 6-3 ATS when favored by at least 20 points.

No. 5 Michigan State Spartans (-3, 54) at Purdue Boilermakers, 3:30 ET on ABC

• AP top 10 teams are 13-4 ATS since 2010 when favored by three or fewer points against an unranked opponent.

• Michigan State is the fifth instance since 2010 of an AP top 5 team laying three or fewer points (or being an underdog) against an unranked opponent. The last two involved top five Iowa teams (-3 at Maryland this season, -2 at Nebraska in 2015).

• Michigan State is 6-2 ATS this season, tied for the second-best cover percentage among Power 5 teams. Only Syracuse (8-1 ATS) has been better.

• Michigan State is 4-0 ATS on the road this season after a 1-2 ATS road mark in Melvin Tucker’s first season at the helm in 2020.

• Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in conference games this season after going 2-5 in such spots in 2020.

• Michigan State is 25-13 ATS as a road favorite over the last 15 seasons, including six straight covers in such games (2-0 ATS under Tucker).

• Purdue has covered 17 of its last 25 games against ranked opponents dating to 2013, including 9-3 ATS under Jeff Brohm (since 2017).

• Purdue is 17-7 ATS as an underdog under Brohm (since 2017), the second-best cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 20 games).

Navy Midshipmen at No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-20.5, 47), 3:30 ET

• Navy is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season, tied with New Mexico State (5-1 ATS) for the 2nd-best such cover percentage in FBS (min. 5 games). Only Bowling Green (5-0 ATS) has been better.

• Navy is 19-6-1 ATS against AP top 10 teams since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, the best such cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 10 games). That includes a 6-1-1 ATS mark since Ken Niumatalolo’s first full season in 2008.

• Navy is 92-51-1 ATS as a road underdog since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, the best such cover percentage in FBS over that span (min. 50 games). That includes a 26-17 ATS mark since Ken Niumatalolo’s first full season in 2008 (4-5 ATS in those spots since 2019).

• Navy has failed to cover 5 straight non-conference games, the 3rd-longest active streak in FBS behind Utah (7) and Ohio (6).

• Notre Dame has covered 5 of its last 6 after starting the season 0-2 ATS.

• Notre Dame is 9-3 ATS in games played in November or later since 2019.

• The total has gone over in 8 of the last 10 meetings since 2010.

No. 11 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3, 49) at West Virginia Mountaineers, 3:30 ET on ESPN

• Oklahoma State has covered four straight road games, including 3-0 ATS this season.

• Seven straight Oklahoma State road games have gone under the total, the longest active streak in FBS.

• Oklahoma State has covered six straight overall, tied with Washington State for the second-longest active streak in FBS. Syracuse has covered seven straight.

• Oklahoma State is 7-2-1 ATS against West Virginia since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, with nine of those meetings coming since 2012 (Cowboys 6-2-1 ATS under Mike Gundy).

• Oklahoma State is 10-3-1 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 since 2015.

• West Virginia has covered five of its last six against ranked opponents, including 3-0 ATS this season. The Mountaineers haven’t covered four straight against ranked teams since a five game run from 2007-2010, also their longest such streak since the 1978 FBS/FCS split.

No. 12 Auburn Tigers at No. 13 Texas A&M Aggies (-4.5, 49), 3:30 ET

• Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS at home this season and has covered three straight overall, regardless of venue.

• The under is 12-3-1 in Auburn road games since 2018 (2-1 this season under Bryan Harsin).

• Bryan Harsin is 8-4 ATS in his career as a road underdog.

• The under is 10-4-1 when a Bryan Harsin led team faces a ranked opponent.

• Texas A&M is 21-12 ATS as a favorite under Jimbo Fisher (since 2018), but 2-4 ATS when favored against a ranked opponent.

LSU Tigers at No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (-28.5, 66), 7 ET on ESPN

• This would match the largest spread in the series since the 1978 FBS/FCS split (44 previous meetings). The other instance came last season when No. 1 Alabama won 55-17 as 28.5-point favorites.

• This would be the sixth time since the 1978 FBS/FCS split that LSU is an underdog of at least 24 points. Excluding the above-mentioned game against Alabama last season, the other four previous instances came from 1991-94. LSU is 4-1 ATS in those games with the only ATS loss coming against Alabama in 2020.

• Alabama has covered 11 of its last 15 games as a home favorite, including nine straight, the longest active streak in FBS.

• LSU is 5-1 ATS following a bye and 8-2 ATS off more than six days rest since Ed Orgeron’s 1st full season in 2017.

• LSU is 13-3-1 ATS against AP top 10 teams since Orgeron’s first full season in 2017, the second-best mark in FBS over that span (min. five games). Only Kansas (5-1 ATS) has been better.

• Alabama is 14-6 ATS since the start of last season (all as a favorite). The Crimson Tide have also covered 14 of their last 20 as a double-digit favorite (12-6 ATS since 2020).

Tennessee Volunteers at No. 18 Kentucky Wildcats (-1, 57), 7 ET on ESPN2

• Tennessee is 2-8 ATS as an underdog since 2020.

• Tennessee is 31-12 ATS against Kentucky since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, its best cover percentage against any single opponent over that span (min. 10 games). That includes an 11-3 ATS mark over the last 15 seasons.

• Kentucky is 6-2 ATS this season, including 4-1 ATS as a favorite.

• The under is 14-4 in games involving Tennessee in November or later over the last five seasons.

• The over is 14-6 in games involving Kentucky in November or later over the last five seasons.

No. 7 Oregon Ducks (-6.5, 51) at Washington Huskies, 7:30 ET on ABC

• Oregon has failed to cover nine straight as a favorite, the longest active streak in FBS. That includes 0-6 ATS this season.

• Oregon has covered 13 of the last 15 meetings dating to 2005, its best cover percentage against any single opponent over that span (min. five games).

• Washington is 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• Washington has failed to cover five straight as a home underdog, the longest active streak in FBS.

• Washington is 9-17 ATS against AP top 10 teams over the last 15 seasons. This will be the Huskies’ first such game under Jimmy Lake (since 2020).

• The under is 7-1 in games involving Washington this season.

• The total has gone under in 11 of Washington’s last 15 games against ranked opponents.