Last season’s 16-team MLB playoffs format with a best-of-three first round drew mixed reviews. Fans seemed to like the bracket-style setup and the elimination of the one-game wild-card matchup, but others feared it was a sign of things to come with an expanded playoffs devaluing the regular season. While an expanded postseason is inevitable due to the money at stake, for at least one more year — barring a last-minute change late in spring training — MLB is going back to 10 playoff teams in 2021.
That will make the “regular season must count” enthusiasts happy, at least until the 103-win San Diego Padres finish second to the Los Angeles Dodgers and then have to face Jacob deGrom and the 89-win New York Mets in the loser-go-home wild-card game, while an 86-win NL Central champion gets a pass into the division series round.
We can debate the merits of the best playoff system another time, but for now let’s consider which of last season’s playoff teams are least likely to return to the postseason. I’ve included the playoff odds for each team my colleague Bradford Doolittle published, based on his projections and simulations, in his initial 2021 MLB Stock Watch in late February.
Here are the six teams least likely to play in October 2021.
Doolittle’s playoff odds: 1%
The projection systems agree: They don’t like the Marlins, viewing them as the liver and onions of last year’s playoff teams. Brad predicts 67 wins, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA predicts 71, FanGraphs predicts 73, the Vegas over/under total is 73.5. Who am I to disagree with the spreadsheets?
Look, the Marlins had a remarkable 2020 season, using an MLB-most 61 players as the teamwide COVID-19 outbreak forced the organization to dig deep into its minor league system and waiver wire in order to just field a team. Despite that, they finished 31-29 — ahead of the disappointing Phillies, Mets and Nationals. Those three teams all look better for 2021. The Marlins added Adam Duvall.
The biggest problem for the outlook of the 2021 Marlins is on offense. Of the projected regulars, Jesus Aguilar, Miguel Rojas, Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte and Duvall are older than 30, and none are exactly players you would pick to make the All-Star team. Jazz Chisholm may or may not be ready for the majors. Of the previous wave of prospects, only Brian Anderson has hit so far. Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Monte Harrison aren’t even that young (Harrison and Diaz are the youngest at 25) and still have to prove themselves in the majors. This combination of low-level vets and undisciplined younger players means the Marlins will struggle to score runs. FanGraphs forecasts them as the second-worst offense in the National League.
Then you have to factor in playing in a tough division and interleague games against the AL East. The Marlins had better be ready coming out of the gate, as they open with 13 games against the Rays, Cardinals, Mets and Braves. Maybe those 1% playoff odds feel a little low, but the Marlins also haven’t finished above .500 in a full season since 2009.
Why you’re wrong, Schoenfield: Umm, did you see Sixto Sanchez‘s start against the Cubs in the playoffs? The rotation is the opposite of the lineup: It’s young and exciting and can carry this team back to the postseason. Sanchez, Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez combined for a 3.35 ERA across 31 starts in 2020. Trevor Rogers flashed upside with 39 strikeouts in 28 innings.
If the Marlins can get close to 150 starts from that group, they can surprise again. Remember the 1990-91 Braves? They finished in last place in 1990, but they had Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Steve Avery in the rotation. Maybe this Marlins group doesn’t have two future Hall of Famers, but it has a chance to dominate. Pitching wins pennants, Schoenfield, and the Marlins can roll out five above-average starters.
Doolittle’s playoff odds: 9%
Did any team have a worse offseason than the Reds? They lost the Cy Young winner, traded their closer and their top setup guy, lost their shortstop and haven’t replaced him, and their big move was signing Sean Doolittle, who has allowed 14 home runs in 67.2 innings the past two seasons and moves into one of the easiest home run stadiums in the majors.
Managers love to say that you build up the middle. The Reds do not have what looks like a championship middle. They have Tucker Barnhart and rookie Tyler Stephenson at catcher. Rule 5 pick Kyle Holder may be the shortstop or maybe it will be former catcher Kyle Farmer or maybe it will be Dee Strange-Gordon, who hasn’t played there in years. The second baseman is third baseman Mike Moustakas. The center fielders are the often-injured Nick Senzel and the light-hitting Shogo Akiyama.
Here, let’s do a little study. I looked at all the playoff teams from 2012 to 2019 (the wild-card game era) and checked their combined WAR at catcher, second base, shortstop and center field. The lowest combined WAR was the 2015 Mets (Kevin Plawecki/Travis d’Arnaud, Daniel Murphy, Wilmer Flores, Curtis Granderson) at just 5.2. You can even be great without being strong up the middle. The 2018 Red Sox, who won 108 games, are second lowest at 6.3 WAR — but the Reds don’t have a Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez to carry the lineup. The 80 playoff teams averaged 11.7 WAR up the middle, or about 3 WAR per position. FanGraphs, using estimated playing time, has the Reds at 1.9 at catcher, 1.7 at second base, minus-0.4 at shortstop and 1.3 in center field.
Why you’re wrong, Schoenfield: The Reds finished above .500 in 2020 even though the offense hit a pathetic .212. Do you really believe that Eugenio Suarez will hit .202 again? That Nicholas Castellanos will hit .225, Joey Votto .226 or Moustakas .230? That group will be much better. Ten other players hit under .200 — a combined .152 (61-for-401). The bench will be much better. There is legit power in the lineup as the Reds finished fourth in the NL in home runs and, Schoenfield, even you know that power is the name of the game in 2021.
Sure, the rotation lost Bauer, but it still has sleeper Cy Young contender Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, and breakout candidate Tyler Mahle, and Michael Lorenzen will make a successful transition from the bullpen. Plus, have you seen this division?
Doolittle’s playoff odds: 24%
The Francisco Lindor–Carlos Carrasco trade feels like the end of an era. Lindor made his debut on June 14, 2015, and since that date Cleveland has the fourth-most wins in the majors behind only the Dodgers, Astros and Cubs and just ahead of the Yankees and Red Sox. That was also the first season Carrasco was a full-time starter in the majors. The Indians made the playoffs four times in five years since 2016 and won 93 games the year they fell short. The Lindor era was a great era for Cleveland baseball, but how do you replace one of the top all-around players in the game and a quality No. 2 starter? (Take out 2019, when he battled leukemia, and Carrasco is 63-40 since 2015 with a 3.36 ERA.)
Cleveland’s big offseason addition was signing Eddie Rosario, who at least has power — something the Indians’ outfield has been lacking in recent seasons. Over 2019-20, Cleveland ranks 28th in the majors in outfield OPS and 27th in home runs. Rosario should help there — he hit 32 home runs for the Twins in 2019 and 13 in 57 games in 2020 — but he also has a .305 OBP the past two seasons with poor defensive metrics. The Twins non-tendered him for a reason. For Cleveland, he may be the cleanup hitter.
Other positions are also of concern. Cleveland’s catchers have hit .204/.291/.356 the past two seasons. The first baseman is … Jake Bauers? Bobby Bradley? Roger Dorn? Andres Gimenez, acquired from the Mets, is a good glove, but won’t produce much on offense. In order to challenge the Twins and White Sox, the Indians are going to need some surprising performances on offense — all while maintaining perfect health on the pitching staff.
Why you’re wrong, Schoenfield: You must hate Ohio. There’s a reason Cleveland hasn’t had a losing season since 2012: pitching. That’s how this team will shock the world, Schoenfield. In fact, your colleague Doolittle ranks the Cleveland rotation as sixth best in the majors — and best in the AL Central. (The White Sox are ninth and the Twins are 14th). You also forgot that Cleveland won as many games as the White Sox last year and just one fewer than the Twins and Lindor wasn’t really all that special (.258/.335/.415).
Look for Shane Bieber to go back-to-back in Cy Youngs and Jose Ramirez to finally win that MVP award. And Zach Plesac is ready for a breakout season after posting a 2.28 ERA in eight starts, including a 57-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio). Oh, and James Karinchak will be the best closer in the majors with that unhittable curveball. No, the Indians aren’t going to score a lot of runs. They won’t need to.
Doolittle’s playoff odds: 30%
The Blue Jays are the chic pick down at the local coffeehouse after signing George Springer and Marcus Semien, but I worry this may turn out to be more a collection of big names than a playoff team. The Jays will be moving some players to new positions, including Semien and Cavan Biggio, and hoping that some of last year’s performances — Teoscar Hernandez, Rowdy Tellez — are for real. Note that the Jays’ offensive numbers benefited from Sahlen Field in Buffalo: They had an .823 OPS at home and just .721 on the road.
But the biggest worry is a rotation that will enter the season with just one reliable starter in Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has topped 126 innings just once since 2014. The rest of the group:
Robbie Ray: He has some of the best left-handed stuff in the league but suffered from a complete inability to throw strikes in 2020 (45 walks in 51.2 innings) and has a 4.53 ERA since his All-Star season in 2017.
Nate Pearson: One of the top pitching prospects in the minors, Pearson comes with a high-octane fastball, but needs to improve his command (6.00 ERA in 18 innings as a rookie, with 13 walks and five home runs). He also missed time with a sore elbow in 2020, had other injuries in the minors and now has a groin strain. The stuff is big time, but he’s probably on an innings limit anyway.
Steven Matz: He was 0-5 with a 9.68 ERA for the Mets in 2020 and is 31-41 with a 4.35 ERA in his career. His best season was his rookie year way back in 2016. He’s not as bad as he was last year, but even in 2018-19 he had a 4.09 ERA/4.61 FIP and now moves away from pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
Tanner Roark: Another guy who struggled mightily in 2020 (2-3, 6.80 ERA), and while it’s fair to dismiss anybody’s stats from last year, he’s 34 and lacks elite velocity.
How many teams with that many rotation questions end up in the postseason?
Why you’re wrong, Schoenfield: Such negativity! You act like all five of these guys are going to pitch at a worst-case scenario. How about suggesting a best-case scenario, where Ryu, Ray and Pearson crush it and Matz and Roark are above average? That’s a great rotation … and backed up by what may be the best offense in the majors. The biggest issue here, however, is you’re overrating your beloved Rays. The Rays have their own rotation issues after trading Blake Snell and losing Charlie Morton. Your buddy Brad even rates Toronto’s rotation ahead of Tampa Bay. And don’t tell me you’re taking Tampa’s lineup over Toronto’s — especially when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. breaks out and hits .312 with 33 home runs.
Doolittle’s playoffs odds: 65%
It does seem like everyone is a little too eager to write off the Cubs in 2021. As you can see, Brad’s system likes them quite a bit – a reminder that, oh yeah, they did win the division in 2020 despite the bad years from Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Anthony Rizzo. Still, trading Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish is a huge loss for 2021 and there just seems to be … I don’t know if bad vibes is the right description surrounding the Cubs, but even president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer called this a “transition year” on one of the team’s first spring training broadcasts. As Jesse Rogers recently wrote, there remains the possibility of a big sell-off before the trade deadline, especially if the Cubs don’t get off to a strong start.
The projection systems don’t factor any of that into their spreadsheets. They assume Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Joc Pederson and Zach Davies, all potential free agents after the season (Pederson has a mutual option), will be in Chicago all season. Aside from potential white flag, there are on-field reasons to worry about the Cubs, particularly in the rotation. Jake Arrieta is back at Wrigley, but his ERA has risen five seasons in a row, including a 5.08 mark in 2020. Alec Mills had a 4.48 ERA in 2020, but a 5.44 FIP thanks to 13 home runs in 62.1 innings. After that, it’s Trevor Williams (5.60 ERA the past two seasons in pitcher-friendly PNC Park) and youngsters Adbert Alzolay, Brailyn Marquez, Tyson Miller and Cory Abbott. With soft-tossers Kyle Hendricks and Davies leading the way, the Cubs are zigging when everybody else is zagging for more velocity.
Then there is the shaky closer situation – a problem the past couple of seasons. Craig Kimbrel lost the job after a rough start in 2020, but finished strong with eight straight scoreless outings (mostly in low-leverage situations). He just allowed four runs in a spring training outing. Can he hold the job, and if he doesn’t, who takes over?
Why you’re wrong, Schoenfield: Geez, Schoenfield, you’re acting like Bryant, Baez and Rizzo are finished or something. Can we go back to 2019? Bryant hit .282/.382/.521 with 31 home runs. Baez hit .281/.315/.531 with 29 home runs. Rizzo hit .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs. They were worth a combined 13.5 WAR. If Ian Happ (.258/.361/.505) and Jason Heyward (.265/.392/.456) hit like they did in 2020 and Pederson matches the 36 home runs he hit for the Dodgers in 2019, this will be one of the best offenses in the NL – and certainly the best in the NL Central. And just because Hendricks and Davies don’t throw hard doesn’t mean they’re not good. Since you didn’t include the Cardinals or Brewers here, you must think they’re better. Please. The Brewers have no offense, the Cardinals don’t have enough power and neither team’s rotation is exactly the 1998 Braves.
Doolittle’s playoff odds: 54%
Well, we need a third American League team, so my final decision is A’s versus Astros. The A’s somehow went 36-24 in 2020 even though Matt Chapman, Matt Olson and the departed Semien all had down seasons (Chapman had season-ending hip surgery and missed the postseason). Chapman is back in the field and even made a terrific diving stop way behind third base over the weekend, looking like his old Gold Glove self. A healthy Chapman is a great sign. The A’s even made some late additions to the bullpen, signing Trevor Rosenthal, Yusmeiro Petit and Sergio and acquiring Adam Kolarek from the Dodgers.
So what’s the concern? Well, for starters, I think the rest of the AL West will be better – certainly the Astros, but even the Angels, Mariners and Rangers should be improved, making Oakland’s run through the division a little tougher than it was in 2020. The Astros did suffer a blow with Framber Valdez’s broken finger that means he may miss the season, but they moved quickly to sign Jake Odorizzi. A tougher AL West increases the likelihood the wild cards come from the other divisions.
Beyond that, I just don’t see Oakland’s bullpen repeating its 2020 performance, when it went 14-5 with an MLB-best 2.72 ERA. Only two others in the past five seasons have had a bullpen ERA under .300 (the 2020 Dodgers and 2017 Indians). Here, leaving aside the 2020 A’s and Dodgers, the five lowest bullpen ERAs form the past five seasons and what happened the following season:
2017 Indians: 2.89 ERA to 4.60 ERA
2018 Astros: 3.03 ERA to 3.75 ERA
2017 Red Sox: 3.15 to 3.72 ERA
2017 Yankees: 3.34 to 3.38 ERA
2016 Dodgers: 3.35 to 3.38 ERA
If the bullpen isn’t as good, what will balance that out? Better seasons from Olson and Chapman will help (although I wonder what happened with Chapman’s plate discipline, which cratered to a 54-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio). Elvis Andrus’ offense and defense have both in steady decline in recent years, so shortstop looks like a problem. Chris Bassitt is going post a 2.29 ERA again.
Why you’re wrong, Schoenfield: Nobody ever picks the A’s. All they’ve done the past three seasons is win 97, 97 and a division title. Sure, Bassitt will regress, but Jesus Luzardo, Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea will all be better. And put this in the bank: Sean Murphy will be an All-Stat catcher. Stick with those Astros. Keep pretending 2020 was just some psychological aftereffect of the cheating scandal rather than a real decline across the roster (a roster which, mind you, lost Springer). Keep underrating the A’s. They will once again be better than the sum of the parts well the big-name Astros sputter to another .500 finish.