Last week, I ranked the top 100 prospects and all 30 farm systems heading into the 2021 season. Now it’s time to go deeper with my team-by-team rankings, starting with the American League.
A quick refresher on a key term you’ll see throughout the team lists: Future Value, shortened to FV hereafter, as a term that sums up the value of a player into one number. It’s graded on the 20-80 scouting scale. A low-end everyday player is a 50, which correlates to 2.0 WAR; a well above average position player, No. 3 starter or high-end closer is a 60, or somewhere around 3.0 WAR. I refrain from tossing out an 80 on minor leaguers because that would imply one is expected to be one of the top players in baseball.
While the top 100 is exactly that long, I rank every prospect who gets a 45+ or better FV grade that is 167 in total, so that rank is included here in the team lists. For every team, there are reports on the top 10 prospects and then varying numbers of others depending on the strength of the system. Broadly, it’ll be everyone better than a 40 FV, then hand-picked interesting prospects who are 40 FVs.
And now on to my rankings.
Jump to a team:
BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE | DET
HOU | KC | LAA | MIN | NYY
OAK | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR
1. Adley Rutschman, C, 60 FV (No. 2 overall on the top 100)
2. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, 55 FV (30th)
3. Ryan Mountcastle, LF, 50 FV (93rd)
4. D.L. Hall, LHP, 50 FV (97th)
5. Heston Kjerstad, RF, 50 FV (104th)
6. Gunnar Henderson, 3B, 45 FV
7. Keegan Akin, LHP, 45 FV
8. Terrin Vavra, 2B, 45 FV
9. Ryan McKenna, CF, 45 FV
10. Michael Baumann, RHP, 45 FV
Top 10 reports
Kjerstad had a steady career in the SEC with Arkansas showing traditional everyday right-field tools in plus raw power and an above average arm. The question going forward (and why he signed for well below slot as the No. 2 overall pick) is whether his contact and pitch selection issues are correctable (i.e., good pitch recognition but poor swing decisions, which can be fixed), which obviously Baltimore thinks they are. Henderson (my breakout pick for the system) had a strong pro debut in 2019 after being selected with the No. 42 overall pick out of an Alabama high school. He has solid-average tools across the board and probably slides over to third base. There is some projection in his 6-foot-3 frame, and swinging from the left side gives him a little extra upside, so he could find himself in next year’s top-100 conversation with a solid full-season debut. Akin projects as a back-end starter who relies on his fastball command and plus changeup to get outs.
Vavra was acquired with 1B Tyler Nevin and CF Mishael Deson for a season and a half of Mychal Givens‘ trade deadline deal that looks great for Baltimore so far. Vavra is a bat-first, left-hitting infielder with excellent plate discipline who fits best at second base and could be a Tommy LaStella type, but he’ll be 24 early in the season and hasn’t played above Low-A. Nevin (21st, 40 FV), son of Phil, is a bat-first first baseman with some raw power while Deson (30th, 40 FV), my backup breakout pick, is a 6-foot-4 lanky center fielder with plus speed, athleticism, and a swing that showing progress in games. McKenna is a 70 runner and plus fielder in center with solid contact skills close to big league ready, but he has well below average power. Baumann has a plus fastball up to 97 mph with bat-missing lift and starter traits, a marked improvement from the reliever he looked like in college.
Others of note
SS Jordan Westburg (45 FV, 11th) is an athletic, strong 6-foot-3 with plus raw power and plus speed, but some rawness in his offensive approach. He’s athletic enough to play shortstop, but his size could force a move to third base or center field, where the power easily profiles and a strong 2021 pro debut would put him in the Top 100 conversation (Westburg was another breakout candidate). RF Kyle Stowers (45 FV, 12th) was the 71st overall pick out of Stanford in 2019 and has shown five average or better tools at times, but his brief pro debut provided some questions on his contact skills. RHP Dean Kremer (45 FV, 13th), like Akin, already has a handful of big league performances, but they haven’t quite gone to plan yet. He has a solid average three-pitch mix with a changeup that lags behind, so he may be suited for shorter outings if not outright relief. RF Yusniel Diaz (45 FV, 14th) has stagnated a bit after being a big piece in the Manny Machado trade and looks like a low-end everyday player at best. LHP Zac Lowther‘s (40+ FV, 15th) stuff is solid average, which should be enough in combination with his deception and feel to pitch to make him a useful back-end starter.
2B Jahmai Jones (40+ FV, 16th) was the return from the Angels for Alex Cobb and he’s still a plus runner with low-end everyday tools, but his upper level performance and swing tinkering has lowered the probability a bit. SS Adam Hall (40+ FV, 17th) broke out in 2019 and has a chance to build on it this year, with plus speed, average raw power, and a shortstop fit as the headlining tools. CF Hudson Haskin (40 FV, 18th) was a second-rounder last summer out of Tulane with the plus speed to profile in center and average raw power to punish mistakes, but a funky swing that will need to be improved or prove to work at higher levels.
3B Coby Mayo (40+ FV, 19th) was a fourth-round overpay last summer out of a Florida high school with potential plus-plus raw power but contact questions tied to his size and swing tinkering. RHP Carter Baumler (40 FV, 24th) was Baltimore’s overpay 5th rounder as a projection bet from an Iowa high school with the making of two above-average pitches. RHP Kyle Bradish (40 FV, 26th) was acquired from the Angels for Dylan Bundy. He is a solid sleeper to monitor in that he has a starter quality solid average four-pitch mix and throws solid strikes, but his delivery looks like a reliever to some; his performance may land him in a rotation.
1. Jeter Downs, 2B, 50 FV (41)
2. Triston Casas, 1B, 50 FV (49)
3. Jarren Duran, CF, 45+ FV (159)
4. Gilberto Jimenez, CF, 45+ FV (160)
5. Bryan Mata, RHP, 45+ FV (165)
6. Bobby Dalbec, 3B, 45 FV
7. Tanner Houck, RHP, 45 FV
8. Noah Song, RHP, 45 FV
9. Ronaldo Hernandez, C, 45 FV
10. Connor Seabold, RHP, 45 FV
Top 10 reports
Duran is a plus-plus runner who is improving defensively in center and has made a lot of progress since being a seventh-rounder out of Long Beach State in 2018. He lowered his hands in his setup to get to more power, so it’s now about average, but we still haven’t really seen how it’ll play in games. Jimenez is an 80 runner and plus defender in center with great makeup and game performance along with better bat control than Duran, but he hasn’t played full-season ball yet and has very little in game power. Mata is similar to Carlos Zambrano to me, with an electric sinker from a lower slot up to 99 mph and more control (over the plate) than command (hitting his specific location). Mata’s changeup is above average and better than either breaking ball, so his command will likely dictate if he’s a multi-inning reliever or starter. Dalbec has 70 raw power and a 70 arm, along with above-average pitch selection and defense at third base. He’s a late-count slugger with loft in his swing that will walk and strike out a lot getting to his power in games. He’s blocked by Rafael Devers, so he’s more of a corner utility fit for Boston right now.
Houck is back to his college style of pitching, with a low slot and heavy sinker up to 97 mph and a slider that flashes plus. His slot and changeup (and maybe command) could push him to shorter stints, but he looks like a useful big leaguer and soon. Song, a dynamic starter from Navy, lasted until the fourth round in 2019 and got a below slot $100,000 bonus because of expectations he would have to serve two full years before committing full time to pro ball. At his best, he has a plus heater into the high 90s and a plus slider with the command to start. He’ll be 24 in May but could move quickly when he fully rejoins the system, possibly later in 2021. Seabold came over in the Brandon Workman deal and fits a type that’s often underrated by prospect media: the righty starter with average arm speed, but an above average changeup and command. Hernandez was just acquired earlier this week from Chaim Bloom’s former employer, Tampa Bay. He’s on the 40-man, has plus raw power, and has improved behind the plate, but he is still a bit of a question mark due to the lack of lift in his swing and polish behind the plate.
Others of note
SS Nick Yorke (11, 40+ FV) was a surprise first-round pick last summer out of a Northern California high school. He doesn’t have flashy tools and fits the type Bloom had while with the Rays — a hit-first middle infielder who isn’t seen as a consensus shortstop. He’s a plus hitter with average tools otherwise, which is an everyday player at either middle infield position if those projected tools are what ends up being in the big leagues. The savings on Yorke were spent on arguably the most famous player in the 2020 prep class, 1B Blaze Jordan (19, 40 FV). He became a bit overrated by casual draft watchers when a viral video proclaimed him the next Bryce Harper when he was actually just an early-developing very solid pro prospect rather than a generational one. He’s likely a first base fit but has the plus raw power and history of making contact to profile there.
RHP Brayan Bello (12, 40+ FV) has a two-seamer up to 97 mph and a plus changeup, along with the athleticism and makeup to project enough improvement in his command and breaking ball to stick in a rotation. RHP Thad Ward (13, 40+ FV) is a former sinker/slider college reliever who has transitioned to being a starter in the pros. His four-pitch mix plays above average, so he may fit best in a multi-inning relief role. SS Brainer Bonaci (14, 40 FV) is a dynamic young shortstop with above-average tools headlined by his hit tool, speed and plus arm. RHP Garrett Whitlock (17, 40 FV) was a Rule 5 pick from the Yankees and is my breakout pick for the system. He was a 2017 18th-round pick by the Yankees out of the University of Alabama-Birmingham as a sinker/slider “system inventory” arm with a quirky delivery and arm action. He beat expectations with strong performances through High-A but struggled in 15 starts at Double-A before a 2019 Tommy John surgery. He got back on the mound during the 2020 season and wasn’t protected by New York because he hasn’t been seen in a game in over a year when the Red Sox took him in the Rule 5 draft. He posted videos on Instagram of his post-surgery bullpens and was sitting 93-95 while showing an at-least above-average slider and cleaner arm action. He’ll likely open the season as a long reliever but has a shot to grab a rotation spot if things go well in shorter stints.
CF Jeisson Rosario (15, 40 FV), 3B Hudson Potts (16, 40 FV), and C Connor Wong (18, 40 FV) are all prospects on the 40-man acquired by Bloom that have low-end everyday upside but are more likely to be solid role players. Rosario is a plus hitter, runner, defender, and thrower but with bottom-of-the-scale in-game power, Potts has plus raw power but below average contact skills, and Wong is a multi-positional utility type who converted to catcher in pro ball and has average tools. There area few lower-level international prospects to keep an eye on, but RF Miguel Bleis (23, 40 FV) is the most exciting of that group. He’s more of a “raw with big raw tools” type, with plus power right now that could grow to be plus-plus, and current plus speed that will likely take a step back and shift him over to right field. Bleis has above-average bat speed and has shown solid game performance, but he needs to clean up his approach.
1. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, 60 FV (8)
2. Michael Kopech, RHP, 60 FV (23)
3. Nick Madrigal, 2B, 50 FV (42)
4. Garrett Crochet, LHP, 50 FV (69)
5. Jared Kelley, RHP, 40+ FV
6. Benyamin Bailey, RF, 40+ FV
7. Jonathan Stiever, RHP, 40+ FV
8. Micker Adolfo, RF, 40 FV
9. Matthew Thompson, RHP, 40 FV
10. Andrew Dalquist, RHP, 40 FV
Top 10 reports
Kelley would’ve gone higher (he got mid-first-round money at the 47th overall pick last summer) if he had been in the 2010 draft instead of 2020. The scouting consensus has turned a bit on the huge-now-raw-stuff prep righties, particularly when the velocity plays down in games due to poor bat-missing pitch characteristics (i.e., fastballs should either rise for whiffs or sink for grounders, don’t be in between). Kelley is a stout 6-foot-3 and has been up to 100 with good control and a plus changeup, but that fastball shape and the quality of his breaking ball have caused concern, as does the potential direction of his physicality. Fastball shape can be fixed and the other stuff isn’t unusual for a 19-year-old, so I’ll choose optimism and expect some progress on those main issues over the next few years.
Bailey is a big 6-foot-4 and only 19 so likely to keep getting bigger. He put up great numbers in the DSL in 2019 with excellent plate discipline, has shown contact skills, and the raw power should be plus or more in time. He doesn’t have many high-level reps and probably won’t have much speed or defensive value down the road, so you can judge his progress largely by the statline, but I would expect a speed bump or two. Along those same lines, Adolfo has plus-plus raw power and little else we can be sure of, with plate-discipline, contact, health, speed, and defensive issues.
Stiever was a fifth rounder out of Indiana in 2018 and has performed well everywhere in pro ball, with 2019 his breakout from depth arm to prospect. He’s more of a performer with solid average traits and feel who fits in the back of a rotation than a dynamic arm, so expect something more like his minor league career when he’s in the upper levels this year, and ignore his rough MLB debut. Thompson and Dalquist get lumped together as two overslot prep arms totalling $4.1 million in bonuses in the 2019 draft. Thompson is a bit more dynamic, into the mid-90s with an above-average-flashing fastball-curveball combo and the athleticism to project him to improve and stick in the rotation. Dalquist sits in the low-90s with an average-ish four-pitch mix, but his above-average curveball and command projection are the standout traits to focus on, since we have precious little pro performance on either.
Others of note
You can see by the 40 FV prospects making the top 10 that the White Sox system is shallow, so this secondary list isn’t overflowing with exciting prospects. SS Jose Rodriguez (11) is a free-swinging type from the short season levels with a feel for the bat head, above average speed, and enough pop to punish a mistake. RHP Zack Burdi (12) was one of the best relief prospects in recent memory pre-Tommy John, up to 100 mph with three plus pitches and solid-for-a-reliever control. He was back to hitting 100 in his 2020 MLB debut, but his secondary stuff and control were a notch below his 2017 peak and inconsistent. RF Luis Gonzalez (14) and RF Blake Rutherford (15) get lumped together because they’re somewhat similar as fourth outfielder types who have played center in the past and are fill-ins at best now. Rutherford is a little more power-and-patience at the plate while Gonzalez has more speed and feel for the bat head.
CF Yoelqui Cespedes (16), 23, is the younger brother of Yoenis and signed for just over $2 million in January. He has plus-timed speed that plays down a bit in the field and a huge arm like his brother, along with above-average raw power, but accounts of his in-game hitting ability will continue to vary until he faces full-season competition. RHP Norge Vera (23), 20, is another Cuban that signed for $1.5 million in January and he’s shown above average stuff and projection at times, but his command varied in his amateur looks. CF James Beard (21) is just fun as an off-the-scale-but-we’ll-call-it-80 runner who is a great athlete, and that speed may be enough on its own for at least a Terrance Gore-type MLB career.
1. Nolan Jones, 3B, 55 FV (33)
2. George Valera, RF, 50 FV (56)
3. Triston McKenzie, RHP, 50 FV (59)
4. Tyler Freeman, SS, 50 FV (114)
5. Daniel Espino, RHP, 45+ FV (130)
6. Bo Naylor, C, 45+ FV (162)
7. Brayan Rocchio, SS, 45+ FV (163)
8. Gabriel Arias, SS, 45 FV
9. Aaron Bracho, 2B, 45 FV
10. Lenny Torres, RHP, 45 FV
Top 10 reports
Freeman was close to making the Top 100 and isn’t that different than Rays SS Taylor Walls, who did sneak on. Freeman has elite bat control, as evidenced in his elite contact rates, but the rest of his toolset is pretty ordinary, other than his ability to play an average shortstop. Rocchio also has plus bat control, but is more athletic with above average speed and a potentially above average glove, but he hasn’t played in full-season ball yet. Bracho has just okay raw tools for an elite prospect, as a second baseman without a clear plus tool, but he still got a seven-figure bonus because his hit tool and pitch selection are advanced. He’s a switch hitter seen widely in game situations as an amateur.
Bracho is still a teenager and has played only 38 pro games, so he could shoot up the list with a higher level of proof that the hit tool is what I’m suspecting — and even higher if the power is too. Arias was acquired in the Mike Clevinger deal from San Diego and is markedly different than these other shortstops, as a below average contact type with above average raw power, speed, defense, and arm strength.
Espino has some of the best raw stuff among starters in the minors, regularly getting in the high-90s with sink and three above average secondary pitches that give different looks. My main worry is both on the health record of fireballing youngsters in general and whether his secondary stuff and command will sharpen as he climbs in the ladder. Torres checks a lot of boxes with two potential plus pitches, projection, and athleticism, but he’s also coming off of a 2019 Tommy John surgery and was pretty raw before that. Naylor is the younger brother of now organizational teammate Josh, who was acquired in the Clevinger deal. Bo is still pretty new to catching but is making progress behind the plate, with above average raw power and solid game performances to give him the upside of an everyday catcher.
Others of note
SS Angel Martinez (11, 45 FV) was one of my breakout picks from the system. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm who has the tools to stick at shortstop, still has that advanced hit tool Cleveland desires and is a teenager who has played only 56 pro games. SS Carson Tucker (19, 45 FV) was a young-for-the-class 2020 first rounder with a well-rounded, solid average toolset, the younger brother of Pirates SS Cole. CF Petey Halpin (23, 40+ FV) was a later, overslot pick in the 2020 draft who stands out for his plus speed, center field fit, and plus contact skills. He’s showing progress with raw power, but it’s not a big part of his in-game offense right now.
CF Isaiah Greene (26, 40 FV) was another prep hitter in the 2020 class who was acquired from the Mets in the Lindor trade. He’s a plus runner who profiles in center field and has a short track record of performance, but all five tools have flashed at least average so far. SS Junior Sanquintin (24, 40+ FV) and SS Gabriel Rodriguez (25, 40+ FV) both got seven figure bonuses in the 2018 international class and often get lumped together. Sanquintin has a well-rounded, solid average skill set while power is a bigger part of Rodriguez’s game and he may fit better at third base long-term.
RHP Ethan Hankins (12, 45 FV) looked like a possible top-10 pick after a dominating summer showcase stint but was more ordinary in his draft spring, making it to the 35th overall pick in 2018. His stuff has settled as an above average four-pitch mix and probably fits at the back of a rotation, but could also be a setup man. RHP Carlos Vargas (15, 45 FV) has more dynamic raw stuff, up to 99 mph and a plus slider, but has an even longer way to go with command and a changeup, so he looks ticketed for relief at this point. RHP Josh Wolf (20, 40+ FV) was also acquired in the Lindor trade and strikes a balance between the Hankins and Vargas profiles, with two plus pitches and a little better command than Vargas, but with only eight pro innings of experience and a thinner build.
On the near-big-league ready end of things, we have RHP Emmanuel Clase (18, 45 FV) and LHP Sam Hentges (13, 45 FV). Clase came back in the Kluber trade and missed 2020 due to a PED suspension, but has a loud 2019 MLB debut with a rare combo of strikeouts and walks from a cutting fastball that averaged 99.3 mph, hitting 102.7 mph and using a solid average slider 20% of the time that averaged 90.5 mph. His velo was down a bit as you’d expect from a season not in a team facility, but it’s not hard to imagine him being able to get outs with stuff anywhere near that 2019 stuff. Hentges is a 6-foot-8 lefty reliever with a mid-90s sinker and solid average breaking ball, but command and health issues over the years.
1. Spencer Torkelson, 1B, 60 FV (4)
2. Casey Mize, RHP, 60 FV (20)
3. Matt Manning, RHP, 60 FV (24)
4. Riley Greene, RF, 55 FV (25)
5. Tarik Skubal, LHP, 50 FV (53)
6. Isaac Paredes, 3B, 50 FV (103)
7. Wenceel Perez, SS, 45 FV
8. Cristian Santana, SS, 45 FV
9. Dillon Dingler, C, 45 FV
10. Parker Meadows, CF, 45 FV
Top 10 reports
Paredes is an offensive infielder with excellent bat control and enough raw power to get to 15-20 homers eventually, but his lateral quickness limits his defensive upside. Perez has above average contact skills, speed, and defensive value as he likely sticks at shortstop long-term, but he has below average power, limiting his upside. Meadows is the younger brother of Rays OF Austin, with even more physical upside than his brother. Parker is a plus-plus runner with plus raw power, a plus arm, and a potentially above average center fielder. His long arms and power-focus can give him contact problems at the plate, but has been improving on that in pro ball.
Santana was one of the top five prospects signed in this international period. He doesn’t fit into the broad categories of big-bonus 16-year-old infielders who often are either “big tools, contact problems” or “limited tools, great hitter.” Santana is more power-over-hit in his style, but has enough feel to hit and pitch selection to where his contact ability isn’t a concern. He has now power in a strong frame and is just okay at shortstop, so scouts I spoke with saw something like a 5 hit (.260ish), 6 power (20-25 homers) third baseman.
Dingler was my breakout pick for the system. He popped up in the fall before the 2020 draft as a mid-first-round talent after missing the summer due to injury and being converted to catcher from center field. That position switch underlines his raw athleticism as he has at least average speed and above-average projections behind the plate defensively to go with plus arm strength and plus raw power. I ranked him No. 17 in my pre-draft rankings but he slid to the 38th overall pick due to a short track record of hitting and some concern about a past injury. The tools and intangibles for a breakout are here, as there’s more variance in Dingler’s profile than you normally see from a college position player selected in the top 50 picks.
Others of note
LHP Joey Wentz (11, 45 FV) came over from Atlanta in the Shane Greene deal and while he hasn’t had the stuff spike some hoped for from his amateur days, he still projects as a solid back-end starter. He has a plus changeup, above average command, and a fastball/curveball combo that are average but sometimes play a bit above. RHP Alex Faedo (12, 45 FV) made solid progress in his 2019 season but he’ll miss the 2021 season and possibly the beginning of the 2022 campaign after Tommy John surgery in 2020. He’s a potential solid starter who relies on his plus slider. RHP Franklin Perez (13, 40+ FV) has only thrown 27 official pro innings since being acquired in the 2017 Justin Verlander trade because of a lat strain and shoulder soreness. He was healthy all of 2020 at the alternate site and has one option left, so needs to make progress in the upper minors this year. He has frontline potential with three plus pitches when he’s healthy.
The recent draft hauls beyond the first round have been solid. The 2019 crop included 3B Nick Quintana (14, 40+ FV) and LF Bryant Packard (19). Quintana is a pedigreed power-over-hit third baseman with above average raw power, arm strength, and fielding ability. Packard looks like a nice find in the 5th round as a potential low-end everyday left fielder with above average raw power and contact skills. The 2020 class included LF Daniel Cabrera (15, 40 FV), 3B Gage Workman (23) and 3B Colt Keith (26). Cabrera has a long track record of hitting in high school and at LSU, but his raw power is just average and he is limited to left field. Workman is a big, toolsy, switch hitter who may be able to play a decent shortstop, but hasn’t performed in games up to his tools. Keith was a strong two-way prospect who is better as a hitter and has four tools that could be above average, excepting speed.
RF Jose De La Cruz (18), 3B Adinso Reyes (27), and RF Roberto Campos (28) have all been seven figure international signings who have all done well so far but don’t have much pro data to their names yet. De La Cruz is a power-over-hit classic right fielder, Reyes has a well-rounded solid average toolset, and Campos is the most systerios, with plus raw power and very little scouting track record in another right field fit.
1. Jeremy Pena, SS, 50 FV (110)
2. Forrest Whitley, RHP, 50 FV (116)
3. Hunter Brown, RHP, 45+ FV (120)
4. Jairo Solis, RHP, 45 FV
5. Freudis Nova, SS, 45 FV
6. Luis Garcia, RHP, 45 FV
7. Bryan Abreu, RHP, 45 FV
8. Korey Lee, C, 40+ FV
9. Colin Barber, CF, 40+ FV
10. Alex Santos, RHP, 40 FV
Top 10 reports
Pena is a popular breakout pick who just missed the top 100 because, as with a lot of solid prospects, we just needed a little more recent performance to have the conviction to sneak him on the end of a list so keep an eye on his early season performance. He was a glove-first college prospect at Maine but has worked on his swing and strength, with average raw power, close to average contact skills and at least an above-average glove at shortstop. Nova is still pretty raw but still has big upside, with above-average raw power and a shortstop fit. Barber is a plus runner who fits in center field and has worked to improve his offensive game, with a shot for league-average offensive production, which would make him an above-average everyday player. Lee was a late-rising college catcher in the 2019 draft out of Cal, and has everyday upside with a plus arm, plus raw power, and roughly average contact and defensive skills.
Whitley continues to frustrate evaluators with his ups and down, but he still has three plus pitches and some starter traits. A career path like Andrew Miller (hyped prospect, faltered as starter, found a home in relief) now makes some sense. Brown, like Pena, is arrow up and could be working onto a top-100 list with a strong first half in 2021. He was a pop-up small-school college prospect in 2019 and has taken a step forward, reaching 99 mph at the alternate site with an above average to plus slider, with the remaining questions around fastball command and changeup quality. Solis checks the scouting boxes, flashing three plus pitches and decent control like Whitley can, but without the same kind of track record, in part due to a 2018 Tommy John surgery. He’s only made 11 appearances in full-season ball but could explode in 2021 with a healthy year.
Garcia was one of many rookies to break onto the big league roster in 2020, and has a solid average repertoire who could either play as a No. 4 starter or setup man. Abreu has dynamic stuff akin to Josh James and some chance to start, but likely gets another MLB shot in 2021 and settles in late relief. Santos has a high spin rate, TrackMan-friendly profile and is a projectable cold-weather arm who may take a little time but has the pieces to be a mid-rotation starter.
Others of note
SS Grae Kessinger‘s (11) grandfather played for 16 seasons in the big leagues, his uncle had a big league cup of coffee and his dad also played pro ball. He’s got a solid feel for the game and solid average tools that give him a good chance to hang around for a long time as a utility infielder. CF Jordan Brewer (14) is now 23 with only 16 pro games experience, but still has the loud tools (70 speed, plus arm, above-average raw power) that made him a 2019 third rounder out of Michigan.
LF Chas McCormick (15) is a bats right/throws left fourth outfielder type with solid-average tools and strong strike-zone discipline. RF Pedro Leon (19) got $4 million from the Astros in the most recent international class and hasn’t played in many organized games of any sort recently, but has the plus raw power and arm strength to profile everyday in right field if the hit tool plays in pro ball. CF Zach Daniels
RHP Tyler Ivey (12) has performed well his whole pro career by relying on funk and guile — that may or may not work in the big leagues — to go with solid-average stuff headlined by an above-average curveball. RHP Shawn Dubin (16) also has some funk, but a clearer fit in short stints due to a plus fastball/slider combination, with 2021 his chance to prove it in the upper minors. 2020 third-round pick RHP Tyler Brown (23) was a closer for Vanderbilt, but has the stuff and feel to potentially start, or go back to being a middle reliever with above average stuff.
1. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, 60 FV (17)
2. Asa Lacy, LHP, 50 FV (50)
3. Daniel Lynch, LHP, 50 FV (65)
4. Erick Pena, CF 45+ FV (119)
5. Jackson Kowar, RHP, 45+ FV (149)
6. Nick Loftin, SS, 45 FV
7. Kyle Isbel, RF, 45 FV
8. Austin Cox, LHP, 40+ FV
9. M.J. Melendez, C, 40+ FV
10. Carlos Hernandez, RHP, 40+ FV
Top 10 reports
Pena is a dynamic talent from the top of the 2019 international class, but that class fell into bad timing, with Pena likely having no official pro experience until roughly two years after signing. He is a projectable 6-foot-3 with above average to plus tools across the board and exciting offensive upside that could rocket him up this list with a pro debut in line with his tools. Loftin was my breakout pick for the Royals system. Loftin is a perfect fit for the industry’s current trend in hitter evaluation in leaning into contact rate as a proxy for both bat control and pitch selection, implying that a walk rate could be learned.
We’ve already seen that some advanced athletes who excel as hitters can learn to add power, and Loftin looks to be another example after going from near the bottom of the scale to a decent level of pop in his abbreviated draft spring at Baylor.The Royals took Loftin No. 32 overall but gave him a $3 million bonus commensurate with the No. 22 overall pick. Loftin appealed to a wide base of teams, with scouting-oriented clubs such as Kansas City liking Loftin’s makeup and ability to improve, while progressive clubs gravitated to the inherent teachability of his specific skill set.
Isbel had a deceptively bad 2019 due to a poor BABIP at High-A, but still looks like a high probability low-end everyday outfielder that’s decent in center field and above average in a corner spot. Melendez has dynamic tools with above average to plus raw power, defensive ability and arm strength behind the plate, but his contact skills and hitting mechanics have been poor thus far in pro ball. Kowar is up to 98 mph, has a changeup that’s at least plus, and should get a big league debut in 2020, but his breaking ball, command, and fastball characteristics all leave something to be desired. Cox has developed well since college, with an above average fastball/curveball combination that will work well in multi-inning relief, possibly as a back-end starter. Hernandez also has big stuff (sits in the mid-90s, solid average curve and changeup) that could fit in multiple roles, with a delivery and health history that suggest a couple innings at time is best.
Others of note
SS Brady McConnell (11, 40 FV) is from a somewhat risky category of the toolsy upside college player, with concerns on his strike zone discipline affecting his contact rate and how often he can tap into his above average raw power. He’ll turn 23 in May has hasn’t played full-season ball yet, so he’ll need to produce, but his plus speed and shortstop fit give him some margin for error.
SS Wilmin Candelario (14) has some similarities to McConnell with some questions on his strike zone discipline, but Candelario is still just 19 and projects for above average raw power, speed, fielding at shortstop, and arm strength. SS Lucius Fox (15) is now a well-traveled shortstop with plus speed and Triple-A experience, but just two options remaining and limited offensive impact at the upper levels.RF Tyler Gentry (17) was a rising prospect in the 2020 spring at Alabama before the spring season was cut short. The Royals scooped him up in the 3rd round and he has a solid floor as a 4th outfield type, but if he continues his offensive emergence, could be a low-end everyday option.
RHP Jonathan Bowlan (12) is a durable workhorse type with solid average stuff and above average command that looks like a high-probability back-end starter. RHP Alec Marsh (13) is another of the Royals recent run of college starting pitcher picks, that also has a back-end profile with solid average stuff, solid feel, and a strong frame. RHP Ben Hernandez (16) was a 2020 2nd round pick out of an Illinois high school that’s of a similar type, with solid average stuff headlined by a plus-flashing changeup.
Los Angeles Angels (No. 23 system)
1. Brandon Marsh, CF, 60 FV (19)
2. Jordyn Adams, CF, 50 FV (75)
3. Reid Detmers LHP, 45+ FV (122)
4. Jeremiah Jackson, 2B, 45 FV
5. Kyren Paris, SS, 45 FV
6. Arol Vera, SS, 45 FV
7. Chris Rodriguez, RHP, 45 FV
8. Hector Yan, LHP, 40+ FV
9. D’Shawn Knowles, CF, 40+ FV
10. Jose Alberto Rivera, RHP, 40+ FV
Top 10 reports
Detmers was the best “pitchability” arm in the 2020 draft. He has all the intangibles, durability, feel to pitch, and command that you’d like, though his raw stuff grades out as solid average. Scouts and analysts digging deeper see it all playing up as a 3rd or 4th starter who should get to the majors soon. Rodriguez has had some durability issues, plus a delivery and lagging command that point to a role in relief. His mid-90s heater and two above average breaking balls could land him in a setup role within a few years. Yan is a deceptive, lower-slotted lefty who likely fits best in relief, with his slider ahead of his changeup. The three pitch mix gives him some setup potential. Rivera was a Rule 5 pick from Houston and has huge raw stuff, up to 100 mph at times with an above average curveball, a history of strikeouts, and strong athleticism. But the rest is a question mark (like only one season above short-season ball), leading to a relief fit, but plenty of potential if he can stick.
Jackson is my breakout pick for the system. He had trouble with contact on the showcase circuit leading into the 2018 draft but showed solid tools. He performed incredibly well against mediocre competition in his draft spring in southern Alabama, but most clubs didn’t see enough to change their opinion. The clubs that dug deeper learned Jackson got glasses after his uneven summer, so some clubs thought his spring indicated he was living up to his tools, while others remained skeptical since he was facing much lower competition. The Angels drafted Jackson 57th overall, and he has hit 30 homers in 108 rookie-level games since. Jackson’s vision correction and results since add a notable improvement to his projection, but now the question is if he can continue to get to that sort of power at higher levels with a strikeout rate below 30 percent.
Paris was model-friendly in the 2019 draft as he was very young for his class, eventually going in the 2nd round. He projects for above average tools across the board, but has limited pro reps and is the type of prospect that needs them most. Vera signed for $2 million in the 2019 international class, so he hasn’t played an official pro game yet. The early returns are positive as a shortstop with physical projection, some feel for contact against advanced pitching, and an infield fit. But it’s still very early. Knowles is a plus-plus runner with a plus arm and a chance for plus defense in center field along with solid raw power for his size. But he’s a switch hitter who still needs more polish at the plate.
Others of note
RHP William Holmes (11, 40+ FV) has a sky-high upside due to his projection and athleticism. He has the building blocks of a potential big league starter, but he’s a later-blooming two-way talent from a cold weather locale (Detroit) who is just scratching the surface. RHP Jack Kochanowicz (15, 40 FV) is a big righty who was drafted out of high school with a longer track record, flashing above average potential in his fastball/curveball combination for a back-end starter upside. RHP Garrett Stallings (19) has an average three-pitch mix, but some funk and above average command that could lead to a back-end starter outcome.
CF Trent Deveaux (12, 40+ FV), like Knowles, is a plus-plus runner, signed from the Bahamas in the 2017 international signing class. He has margin for error due to his raw tools, especially speed, defense, and position, but is raw at the plate. RF Alexander Ramirez (13, 40 FV) is from the 2018 international class and has a classic right field skillset, with a plus arm and at least plus raw power, but questions on the rest of his tools right now. CF David Calabrese (14) and SS Werner Blakely (18) were young projection bats from the 2020 draft class. Calabrese is young for the prep class with 70 speed and some feel for contact in games while Blakely is a silky smooth, lanky shortstop who you can dream on.
Minnesota Twins (No. 5 system)
1. Royce Lewis, 3B, 60 FV (15)
2. Alex Kirilloff, RF, 60 FV (22)
3. Trevor Larnach, RF, 55 FV (37)
4. Ryan Jeffers, C, 50 FV (57)
5. Jordan Balazovic, RHP, 50 FV (92)
6. Matt Canterino, RHP, 50 FV (101)
7. Jhoan Duran, RHP, 50 FV (107)
8. Aaron Sabato, 1B, 45 FV
9. Matt Wallner, RF, 45 FV
10. Misawl Urbina, CF, 45 FV
Top 10 reports
Canterino is one of the biggest stuff-gainers from the time during the pandemic, regaining the raw stuff of his sophomore year at Rice and learning a new changeup at home that looks like it’ll be a plus pitch in games. Canterino has a four-seamer with ride that was 92-96 mph at the alternate site, and has had two above average, normally differentiated, breaking balls for a while. There’s some effort to his delivery, but he’s on time and throws strikes. Duran is a unique pitcher who throws a “splinker” that’s a sinker/splitter/two-seamer hybrid at 92-95 mph, and a conventional four-seamer that sits a few ticks higher. Interestingly, he uses the splinkler in place of a changeup, and mixes in a solid-average curveball as his third pitch. Duran is near big-league ready and may be a starter or reliever depending on how his repertoire turns over lineups. Sabato (27th overall in 2020) and Wallner (39th overall in 2019) are similar recent college picks with big raw power. Wallner is more athletic with more defensive value and more raw power, while Sabato is a better hitter with a better approach. Wallner is my breakout pick in the system. Urbina got a $2.8 million bonus in the 2018 international signing class and is currently a center fielder, but could fill out and slide over to right field, in which case his raw power will probably be above average. He has above average contact skills and speed right now, so there’s a wide base of skills to project upon.
Others of note
CF Gilberto Celestino (11, 45 FV) is on the 40-man and is a standout defensive center fielder with contact skills, but limited in-game power. 3B Keoni Cavaco (12, 45 FV) was a late-charging, young-for-the-class projection bet in the 2019 draft class. I’m still dubious given the short track record, but there’s above average to plus bat speed, raw power, speed, and arm strength. 1B Brent Rooker (13, 40+ FV) is very limited defensively, but has good enough pitch selection and big raw power, so he can fill the righty side of a corner platoon role. LF Alerick Soularie (17, 40 FV) is a multi-sport athlete who has performed well with a well-rounded offensive skill set but has a throwing issue that likely makes him a left field-only fit despite having hands for the infield. 3B Jose Miranda (19) was an instructs standout with a hit-first, solid-average overall toolset that plays best at second or third base.
RHP Cole Sands (14, 40+ FV) has three above average pitches and glimpses of starter command, but should fill a multi-inning big league role of some kind. RHP Josh Winder (15, 40+ FV) took a step forward in 2020, going from an average four-pitch mix to gaining a few ticks and hitting 97 mph in instructional league. RHP Blayne Enlow (16, 40 FV) is a typically slower-moving prep righty, with an improving sinker/slider profile and solid average stuff.
New York Yankees (No. 15 system)
1. Jasson Dominguez, CF, 55 FV (40)
2. Deivi Garcia, RHP, 50 FV (71)
3. Oswald Peraza, SS, 50 FV (102)
4. Clarke Schmidt, RHP, 50 FV (115)
5. Kevin Alcantara, CF, 45+ FV (132)
6. Alexander Vargas, SS, 45+ FV (145)
7. Luis Medina, RHP, 45+ FV (161)
8. Estevan Florial, CF, 45 FV
9. Ezequiel Duran, 2B, 45 FV
10. Antonio Gomez, C, 45 FV
Top 10 reports
Peraza was obviously very close to making the Top 100 and is on the short list of players whose early season performance could easily move them on the next version of the list. Peraza improved in 2020, getting stronger and showing above average exit velos and solid-average raw power to go with the already-present plus speed, and shortstop defensive fit. Vargas is a version of Peraza, but well behind him physically, still focusing on adding strength to help fill out a profile with the makings of similar value in a few years. Vargas is a plus runner, thrower, fielder, and hitter, and will probably start showing strength gains in the next few years, with the challenge of getting that to show up in games. Duran is the opposite kind of middle infielder, with lots of raw power (at least plus, including a 115 in-game exit velo), a maxed-out frame, and fringy contact and defensive skills.
The talented young Latin position-player group continues with Alcantara, Gomez, and Florial. Alcantara is a long-framed, 6-foot-5 teenager, with solid in-game contact skills. Alcantara projects for at least plus raw power when he fills out and is currently a plus runner with a strong feel in center field. With a little more in-game performance, he’ll likely jump onto the Top 100. Gomez has a true 80 arm behind the plate and the quick release to make the most of it. The rest of his tools are more average to above, except for speed. Gomez has quick-twitch that matters for catchers (in his hands, in short areas) as opposed to the more gaudy workout type skills. Florial has the gaudy workout skills to spare, with plus raw power and at least plus speed, to go with good enough pitch selection. But he’s had inconsistent health and game performance.
Schmidt has a Tommy John surgery in the rear view but still projects as a 3rd/4th starter with a mid-90s sinker and an at-least-plus breaking ball. His changeup and command waver a bit and his big league debut in 2020 wasn’t that great, but he’s still the same prospect. Medina has what experts refer to as “bonkers” raw stuff, hitting 101 mph, using a curveball that flashes 70-grade, and a changeup that’s plus at its best. His control has almost always been terrible, but improved at the end of 2019 and in Puerto Rico this winter. He still doesn’t fully trust either of his off-speed offerings against advanced hitters, but his control is now good enough to go to the upper levels and work on his consistency.
Others of note
C Austin Wells (11, 45 FV) was the Yankees first-rounder in 2020 and has some Kyle Schwarber vibes as a late-count slugger with a chance for above average to plus hit and power tools if it breaks right. He’s not a great catcher but could work well in an automated-strike-calling environment, so he’ll stay back there for now. SS Anthony Volpe (13, 45 FV) was the Yankees first-rounder last spring out of a New Jersey high school and is a grinder type with solid average tools and feel for the game. C Josh Breaux (17, 40+ FV) was a second-round pick in the 2018 class out of a Texas junior college and is my breakout pick for the system. Breaux popped up in college by hitting 99 mph on the mound in relief, showing a 70 arm behind the plate as a catcher and flashing 70 raw power in BP. He was still pretty raw in all phases, with more pro upside as a catcher, but with real questions a both a catcher and a pitcher given the short track record. His pro career has reflected that, but he has been making progress with a solid 2019 full-season debut and improving reports on his work behind the plate. A good 2021 season could get him in the conversation as the Yankees’ catcher of the future.
CF Everson Pereira (16, 40+ FV) signed in 2017 out of Venezuela for a $1.5 million bonus and was seen as a hit-first center fielder with feel. Now he has shifted to more of a power-focused approach in pro ball, posting exit velocities in games over 110 mph. He’s looking for a happy medium that’s probably a 55 hitter with 50 game power and above average center field defense. From the signing period that opened last month, the Yankees two big-ticket signings were (no relation) SS Hans Montero (25, 40 FV) and CF Fidel Montero (28, 40 FV). Hans Montero is similar to Volpe (but has more upside) as a contact-and-defense-and-feel shortstop that you’re hoping grows into enough power to be an everyday type. Fidel Montero popped up late when other clubs had spent their bonus pool and is a top-10 talent in the class for those that saw him a lot. He has at least plus bat speed, power projection, running speed, and arm strength, but an understandably short track record of hitting in widely-scouted games.
RHP Yoendrys Gomez (12, 45 FV) sits in the mid-90s with a bat-missing fastball and solid-average secondary pitches and command, for a potential mid-rotation upside. RHP Alexander Vizcaino (14, 45 FV) has a knockout mid-90s heater and plus-plus changeup, but his breaking ball and command make a relief fit likely. RHP Luis Gil (15, 40+ FV) also works in the mid-90s with a four-seamer and starter traits, but his off-speed stuff and command are still fringy right now.
Oakland A’s (No. 26 system)
1. A.J. Puk, LHP, 50 FV (72)
2. Tyler Soderstrom, C, 50 FV (76)
3. Logan Davidson, SS, 45+ FV (143)
4. Robert Puason, SS, 45+ FV (154)
5. Daulton Jefferies, RHP, 45 FV
6. Nick Allen, SS, 45 FV
7. Brayan Buelvas, CF, 45 FV
8. Austin Beck, CF, 40+ FV
9. Grant Holmes, RHP, 40 FV
10. Tyler Baum, RHP, 40 FV
Top 10 reports
Davidson has five average or better tools, although his weakest tool is probably hitting as he tries to tap into his above-average raw power. With the lost developmental year, he is now 23 with no full season experience, but reports from the alternate site and instructional leagues were positive and he could move quickly through the A-ball levels. Puason is one of the more celebrated international prospects in recent memory. The main issue with most recent players of this renown is they get locked up with deals years before they sign, so 29 clubs basically don’t see them at ages 15 or 16. This lack of competitive looks means some aggressive days linger longer in scouts’ minds, so Puason’s majestic tools and physicality (6-foot-3, projectable switch hitter with plus speed, bat speed, arm strength, and a clear shortstop fit) won’t belong on a top- 100 list until he has some bulk of solid performance in the minors.
Allen is a wizard with the leather at shortstop who may have 80-grade hands. He has a plus arm and plus bat control, but has an aggressive approach, and very little power (he’s listed at 5-foot-8). He may be something like Jose Iglesias in the end. Beck was the No. 6 overall pick in 2018 out of a North Carolina high school. He had huge tools but missed the summer showcase season with an ACL tear, so very little track record of hitting. He hasn’t struck that offensive balance in pro ball yet, but still has 70 bat speed, 60 raw power, 60 speed, and a 60 arm, so a more conservative approach could still yield a strong everyday player.
Buelvas is my breakout pick for the system, profiling as a true center fielder with plus bat control, plus speed and above-average arm strength and defensive value. He’s still just 18 and has played only 67 pro games since signing out of Colombia in the 2018 international class. The early returns for a prospect whose tools ticked up after signing are all positive, with exemplary amateur production in games, the energy and makeup scouts and coaches love, pitch recognition and now strength that should translate well at higher levels. Buelvas has a real shot to get in the mix for next year’s top 100 if he can produce a full-season performance in line with these tools.
Jefferies was dynamic for Team USA the summer before his draft spring at Cal, but injuries have slowed him over the years. He now sits in the low-90s and relies on a plus changeup, and plus command derived from his plus athleticism. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be a solid No. 3/No. 4 starter. Holmes was a first-round prep arm in 2014 and still has the plus slider from that era, but his fastball plays close to average and he probably fits best in a multi-inning relief role. Baum’s stuff ticked up for North Carolina as the 2019 draft approached and has mostly held in pro ball. He profiles as a No. 4 starter if he continues down this road.
Others of note
CF Pedro Pineda (13) was one of the top talents in the most recent international class, showing plus bat speed, raw power potential, and speed. Similar to Puason, there isn’t a scouting consensus or enough widely scouted looks of him in games to know what sort of hit tool he’ll end up having. CF Luis Barrera (14) has strong contact skills and is a 70-grade runner with an above average arm who profiles as at least a No.4 outfielder. 3B Jordan Diaz (15) was Rule 5 eligible but hadn’t gotten high enough in the minors to be picked. He may force the A’s to add him to the 40-man roster this year with a shot for at least average hit and power tools, though he needs some defensive work at third base.
SS Jeremy Eierman (17) has plus raw power and a plus arm and fits at either shortstop or third base long-term, but his contact ability will dictate if he’s a low-end everyday player or a cup of coffee type. 1B Kyle McCann (19) caught in college but is probably a first baseman in pro ball. He is a classic three-true-outcomes late-count power hitter with plus raw power. RHP Jeff Criswell (20) was solid in instructional leagues, with a workhorse frame, fastball up to 98 mph and a four-pitch mix that could end up as a No. 3/No. 4 starter if the command continues to improve.
Seattle Mariners (No. 6 system)
1. Jarred Kelenic, RF, 60 FV (3)
2. Julio Rodriguez, RF, 60 FV (9)
3. Logan Gilbert, RHP, 50 FV (43)
4. Emerson Hancock, RHP, 50 FV (68)
5. Taylor Trammell, CF, 50 FV (84)
6. Noelvi Marte, SS, 50 FV (105)
7. George Kirby, RHP, 45+ FV (125)
8. Cal Raleigh, C, 45 FV
9. Brandon Williamson, LHP 40+ FV
10. Wyatt Mills, RHP, 40+ FV
Top 10 reports
Marte is another young toolsy prospect on the fringes of the top 100 who could jump on there with a strong month or two of pro performance. He is an offensive infielder, with plus raw power that could be plus-plus one day, plus bat speed, solid average speed, and a 55 arm that will play anywhere. There’s a Hanley Ramirez type outcome at the top end of the scale as a dynamic bat with some infield value for a while, but he has played 65 official pro games and is just 19.
Raleigh was a nice third-round find in 2018, with the above-average raw power to carry his offensive profile and enough defensive ability to be average behind the plate. He could debut as soon as the end of this season. Kirby’s arm speed has spiked up in pro ball, sitting 96-99 and hitting 100 mph at the alternate site. The shape of the pitch will likely play down from the velocity, but his offspeed pitches and command are still above average, so maybe there’s a Nate Eovaldi-type outcome. Williamson has some durability/stamina questions to answer over a long season, but has above average stuff from the left side and starter traits for a 3rd/4th starter outcome. Mills also improved at the alternate site, working 93-95 mph with a sinker and mixing in a 55 or 60-grade slider but is a (late-inning) reliever due to his sidearm slot.
Others of note
RF Zach DeLoach (12, 40 FV) and 2B Kaden Polcovich (13) were picked in the 2020 draft, in the second and third rounds, respectively. DeLoach was just OK at Texas A&M but excellent on the Cape and there was more Cape performance to go off of than 2020 college performance. He’s an above-average runner with above-average raw power and contact skills who can also play a passable center field. Polcovich was a less consensus talent, having just a short spring season after a strong Cape and transferring from a Florida junior college. For those that like him, he’s a plus hitter and runner who fits as an offensive second baseman. RF Alberto Rodriguez (23) is a squatty power hitter acquired from Toronto for Taijuan Walker.
RHP Levi Stoudt (14) is one of two breakout picks for the system. He was a favorite out of Lehigh leading into the 2019 draft as a potential No. 4 starter type with a plus changeup. He needed Tommy John surgery shortly after the draft, which affected his draft/bonus situation, and he still hasn’t pitched a professional game yet. He was one of the stars of Seattle’s alternate site, picking up where he left off with the plus changeup, above-average command and average breaking ball, but showing a little more velocity in sitting 93-96 and hitting 97 mph. LHP Adam Macko (17) is my other breakout pick. He was a seventh-round pick out of a Canadian high school (he was born in Slovakia) in the same 2019 draft and also came on a lot during instructional league. He’s up to 96 and flashing an above-average curveball with TrackMan-friendly pitch characteristics and the traits to start. He is already drawing a lot of interest via trade.
RHP Juan Then (11, 40+ FV) was signed by the Mariners, traded to the Yankees, then traded back in the Edwin Encarnacion deal. He’s now on the 40-man and sat 95-97 mph at the alternate site with a plus slider, so the question is if he fits best as a starter or more versatile pen piee. RHP Connor Phillips (16) was the 94th overall pick in 2020 out of a Texas junior college, where he, like Then, also sat in the mid-90s with a strong breaker and could fit in a few different roles as he develops.
Tampa Bay Rays (No. 1 system)
1. Wander Franco, SS, 70 FV (1)
2. Randy Arozarena, CF, 60 FV (10)
3. Luis Patino, RHP, 60 FV (21)
4. Vidal Brujan, 2B, 55 FV (26)
5. Xavier Edwards, 2B, 50 FV (58)
6. Josh Lowe, CF, 50 FV (70)
7. Brendan McKay, LHP, 50 FV (73)
8. Taylor Walls, SS, 50 FV (89)
9. Shane McClanahan, LHP, 50 FV (94)
10. Greg Jones, SS, 45+ FV (127)
11. Shane Baz, RHP, 45+ FV (142)
12. Seth Johnson, RHP, 45+ FV (144)
13. Blake Hunt, C, 45+ FV (167)
Top 10 reports
Jones is one of the best athletes in the minors, with plus-plus speed, plus bat speed, and above-average raw power potential from both sides of the plate. His offensive polish is the biggest question and he also may fit best at second base or center field long-term, with upside along the lines of Ketel Marte.
Baz made progress at the alternate site, but is trending in the multi-inning direction rather than true starter, with a bat-missing heater up to 100 mph and a plus curveball. Johnson is another pitcher who took a step forward in 2020 for the Rays (there’s a theme). He was a late-rising conversion arm at Campbell in the 2019 draft and he’s now sitting in the mid-90s with sharper breaking stuff than before. A strong 2021 will put him in top-100 contention since we still haven’t seen the improved stuff in competitive games.
Hunt was the second piece in the Snell trade, behind Patino, due to his offensive improvement in last fall’s instructional league for the Padres. He now projects at least as a low-end starter with 45 or 50 hit tool and 50 or 55 game power, to go with solid average defending and a plus arm.
Others of note
RHP Cole Wilcox (15, 45 FV) got first round money in the third round from the Padres, then was dealt to Tampa Bay in the Blake Snell deal. He’s flashed three plus pitches and starter traits at times, but his fastball is a little too hittable for its velocity (sits mid-90s, touches 100 mph) and doesn’t normally have all four elements working at once. RHP J.J. Goss (19, 45 FV) was solid at instructs, with a little more arm speed than his prep days. He’s another prospect on the short (maybe it’s now medium?) list for jumping into top-100 consideration if he plays up to his tools in 2021. RHP Drew Strotman (20, 45 FV) was added to the 40-man roster as he was coming back from Tommy John surgery and was back to his peak stuff in the fall — working 93-95 and hitting 97 mph while adding a power cutter to his already above average curveball.
SS Carlos Colemenarez (16, 45 FV) is one of my breakout picks for the system as one of the top three players in the most recent international class. It’s still early, but he probably slides over to second or third base down the road. LF Heriberto Hernandez (18, 45 FV) is my other breakout pick for the system. He came over from the Rangers this winter in the Nate Lowe trade and has some Kyle Schwarber vibes, with an outside shot at catching and a chance for a 60 hit/power combination. The speed, defense and arm don’t offer a lot if catching doesn’t work — likely left field or first base — but Hernandez’s short-season exploits at the plate are eye-opening. Most hit/power-only prospects on the top-100 list come with Double-A performance, but Hernandez could get on there with a strong showing in low-A and a short high-A look in 2021.
C Ford Proctor (17, 45 FV) converted to catcher during 2020 and the early returns have been great, so he now profiles as a plus hit tool lefty bat that can catch; a strong platoon option at least. SS Alejandro Pie (23, 40+ FV) is a plus runner with a plus arm that projects for above average raw power but is still a raw teenager without much experience. RHP Nick Bitsko (24, 40+ FV) was the best prep pop-up arm in the 2020 draft, but had a setback with shoulder surgery. RHP Taj Bradley (25, 40+ FV) was a late round prep pitching gamble in 2018 who had a velo spike in instructs, sitting 93-97.
Texas Rangers (No. 20 system)
1. Josh Jung, 3B, 50 FV (60)
2. Dane Dunning, RHP, 50 FV (81)
3. Leody Taveras, CF, 45+ FV (141)
4. Sam Huff, C, 45+ FV (150)
5. Anderson Tejeda, SS, 45+ FV (151)
6. Justin Foscue, 2B, 45 FV
7. Cole Winn, RHP, 45 FV
8. Yerry Rodriguez, RHP, 45 FV
9. Steele Walker, RF, 45 FV
10. Jonah Heim, C, 45 FV
Top 10 reports
Foscue is one of my breakout picks from the system. The Rangers took a consensus college bat and a wild card, an unexpected prep bat (Evan Carter, covered below), with their first two picks in the 2020 draft, with positive early pro reports on both. Foscue can hit, hit for power, and play a fine second or third base. If he gets to high-A and mashes as expected, he’ll be on the top 100 next year.
Taveras made his big league debut in 2020 and performed pretty well for being 21 years old. He’ll rely on his speed, defense, contact, and feel for the game, all of which are at least above average. Tejeda has a free-swinging approach, but plus raw power, above average speed, a plus arm and he’ll likely stick at shortstop. His big league debut showed that he probably needs another year of seasoning in the upper minors. Walker was acquired for Nomar Mazara and is a high probability big league corner bat of some consequence, likely with about league-average offense.
Heim was acquired recently in the Elvis Andrus/Khris Davis deal. He’s slowly improved and now looks big league ready with a real shot to be a low-end everyday catcher. Heim is an above average to plus defender and has at least average contact skills and raw power. Huff is a different type of catcher, with 70 raw power, below-average contact skills, and improving but still fringy defensive skills, but a plus arm.
Winn checked a lot of boxes as a prep righty in the 2018 draft — multiple plus pitches, best now command in the class — but still went down with Tommy John surgery after signing. He struggled a bit in his 2019 pro debut but performed really well in three instructional league outings (9 IP, 3 BB, 16 K) and sat 93-96 mph, so he’s primed to regain his prospect status with a strong season. Rodriguez is up to 98 mph and has a plus slider, but his changeup varies in quality. He had a sore elbow at the end of 2019, so a bit more performance would help his stock.
Others of note
RF Evan Carter (20) is my second breakout pick and was Texas’ second 2020 draft pick. Carter is a projectable outfield tweener with a power/speed combo but a shorter track record of hitting in games. He had an excellent showing in instructional league against older, more experienced pitching, with 17 walks and 17 strikeouts in 75 AB and more doubles/triples power than over-the-fence pop at the moment. He’ll probably go to low-A and could join the list of toolsy teenagers who jump into top-100 consideration with a loud full-season debut.
RHP Hans Crouse (11, 45 FV) is quirky with an unusual delivery and some dirty stuff. He has been up to 102 mph, and he has had a plus curveball since he was a sophomore in high school. He pitched through a bone spur in 2019 and still threw in the mid-90s. His changeup and command are still probably good enough to start, but it still seems like his velocity and mentality fit better in shorter stints. RHP Ronny Henriquez (16, 40+ FV) is a 5-foot-9 righty, but he sits in the mid-90s and commands the pitch well, to the point that it was emphasized in instructional league for him to throw his slider and changeup more often. RHP Owen White (19, 40 FV) is a great athlete coming off post-draft Tommy John surgery well, sitting 92-97 mph with solid strikes and a four-pitch mix. He could easily jump into the top 10 or even top five of this list in the next year.
3B Sherten Apostel (12, 45 FV) made his MLB debut at age 21 and struggled over seven games, but still looks like he can be a solid big leaguer. Apostel has plus raw power, a plus-plus arm and plus plate discipline, so he seems likely to at least be the righty end of a platoon at third base or first base, with a chance for more. SS Maximo Acosta (13, 40+ FV) and LF Bayron Lora (14, 40+ FV) both signed in the 2019 international class and have done well in instructs but haven’t played an official game yet. Acosta is a well-rounded plus hitter who projects to stay at shortstop while Lora emerged at age 14 as a big power threat, now with 70-grade raw power (and big exit velos in games already) and decent contact skills. 3B Davis Wendzel (15, 40+ FV) will be in the upper levels this year and is passable at shortstop, but his calling card is the hit tool. He has added a more active leg kick in his swing ala Justin Turner to try to get to more power. SS Chris Seise (23) has plus raw power and a plus arm, with a real shot to stick at shortstop, but his 2019 was ended by shoulder surgery. He’s fully healthy and performed well in instructs.
Toronto Blue Jays (No. 11 system)
1. Nate Pearson, RHP, 60 FV (14)
2. Austin Martin, 2B, 55 FV (38)
3. Jordan Groshans, 3B, 50 FV (47)
4. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP, 50 FV (90)
5. Alejandro Kirk, C, 50 FV (96)
6. Gabriel Moreno, C, 45+ FV (124)
7. Alek Manoah, RHP, 45+ FV (126)
8. Orelvis Martinez, SS, 45+ FV (155)
9. Miguel Hiraldo, 3B, 45 FV
10. Julian Merryweather, RHP, 40+ FV
Top 10 reports
Moreno is a possible multi-positional utility type that’s solid behind the plate (but is just an okay framer and would benefit from automated strike-calling) but isn’t bulky and can also play the infield like Austin Barnes. He has a chance for average offensive output with the gains he made in 2020 at the alternate site and instructional league. Martinez has big raw tools (plus bat speed, plus raw power, plus arm) befitting a $3.5 million bonus in the 2018 international class. He’s only played 40 official pro games and mostly has just shown flashes, but there’s above average everyday upside if it all comes together.
Manoah was the 11th overall pick in 2019 out of West Virginia and projects as a 3rd starter or closer. He has an intense demeanor on the mound, sits in the mid-90s, and has a 65-grade slider with a good sense of how and when to use it. His changeup consistency and fastball command need some work and he’ll need to keep an eye on his frame, but there’s an impact big leaguer of some sort here. Merryweather came over in the Josh Donaldson trade and has a multi-inning future, whether as a starter or reliever. His fastball-changeup combo is plus, but his command and breaking ball point to a possible issue turning over a lineup.
Hiraldo is my breakout pick for the system. He got $750,000 in the 2017 international class due to his bat speed, raw power and potential infield fit. He’s still largely the same type of prospect, with a decent shot to stick at third base, and above-average bat speed, bat control, raw power and arm strength. His tendency to chase a bit and continuing to get to his power in games are the question marks, along with only one game of experience in full-season ball. If he continues down this road in 2021 at low-A, he’ll enter that top group of the Toronto system.
Others of note
RHP C.J. Van Eyk (11, 40+ FV) has flashed three plus pitches at times in high school and at Florida State, but his command and consistency has been an issue, which is why he lasted until the 42nd overall pick last summer. SS Leonardo Jimenez (15, 40 FV) took a step forward in instructional league, improving his in-game power, adding to his contact-and-defense type profile. RHP Sem Robberse (18) was signed out of the Netherlands (!) in 2019, already increasing his velocity from the mid-80’s to the low-90’s. He gets a lot of praise for his precocious feel and ability to improve, with flashes of average stuff, projection for more, and enough command to project him as a starter.
SS Otto Lopez (19) draws trade interest as a shortstop with contact skills and some power, the building blocks that every team is looking for. RHP Joey Murray (21) is a data-interested type with great feel to pitch and manipulate his stuff to match the situation. His stuff plays a bit above average so he could fit in a multi-inning relief type role. RHP Trent Palmer (22) was a 3rd rounder out of Jacksonville last summer that was trending up before the shutdown with excellent feel and performance of solid average stuff. C Riley Adams (23) has plus raw power and arm strength, along with decent defensive skills and some upper level performance; a consolation prize of sorts if a team wants but can’t get Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno.