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ESPN staff
The Week 8 NFL schedule is stacked with great matchups. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and final score picks.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a stat to know for each game, and the Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN Fantasy‘s Kyle Soppe and ESPN Chalk‘s Dave Bearman hand out helpful nuggets as well. It’s all here to help get you ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 8 slate, including Lamar Jackson facing Ben Roethlisberger in an AFC North battle.
Jump to a matchup:
PIT-BAL | MIN-GB | LAR-MIA
NE-BUF | NYJ-KC | LV-CLE
IND-DET | TEN-CIN | LAC-DEN
SF-SEA | NO-CHI | DAL-PHI
TB-NYG
Thursday: ATL 25, CAR 17
Bye: ARI, WSH, JAX, HOU
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 78.2 | Spread: BAL -3.5 (46.5)
What to watch for: How will Steelers’ pass rush try to contain Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson’s elusiveness? The Steelers have blitzed 46% of the time this season — their highest rate since Mike Tomlin’s first year as head coach (2007) — and have a league-high 17 sacks when sending more than four rushers. But few can avoid pressure like Jackson, who is 10-1 since the start of 2019 when rushing for 70 or more yards. — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: The Steelers will sack Jackson four times and hold him to under 50 rushing yards. In Jackson’s lone outing against the Steelers last season, he was sacked five times and intercepted three. He did manage 70 rushing yards against the Steelers’ defense, but this year, the Steelers are allowing just 68.8 rushing yards per game — an improvement from last year’s 109.6 mark. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: This marks the 25th meeting between Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, the most between two head coaches in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) and the third most in NFL history (regular season only), according to Elias Sports Bureau research. But it also marks the fifth matchup in NFL history between a 6-0 team (or better) and the reigning league MVP. Advantage Steelers, as the unbeaten team won three of the previous four such meetings.
What to know for fantasy: Pittsburgh receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster saw 14 targets last weekend against the Titans, matching his combined total from his prior three games. His floor games have garnered attention, but he does have more than 16 points three times this season. See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: Pittsburgh is the seventh team in the Super Bowl era to get more than three points as an underdog with a 6-0 or better outright record. Each of the previous six lost outright and went 2-4 against the spread (ATS). Read more.
Pryor’s pick: Ravens 30, Steelers 27
Hensley’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 67.0% (by an average of 6.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Steelers prove they can start fast just in time for Ravens … Big Ben and the Heisman winners: Sizing up QBs in the NFL’s best division … Ravens upgrade pass rush with Ngakoue … Brady, Big Ben are about to become the most-sacked QBs ever: How they got here, and who’s next … What does Dez do for Ravens?
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 65.8 | Spread: GB -6.5 (53.5)
What to watch for: The forecast for Sunday calls for winds gusting up to 40 mph in Green Bay. That’s windy enough to impact more than just the kicking game — and keep in mind that Packers kicker Mason Crosby is on the injury list this week. It could mess with even the strongest-armed quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins. Rodgers might have inadvertently given Cousins a tip about judging the swirling winds at Lambeau — or perhaps he was deceiving him — when he said this week, “You can’t quite always rely on the flags in the stadium. They’re kind of all over the place. So you learn which ones to look at and often it’s opposite of the North end zone flag, that I’ve learned.” — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: Packers receiver Davante Adams will go for 200 receiving yards on at least 14 catches. He torched the Vikings’ secondary in Week 1 (156 yards and a pair of scores), but it’ll be even worse this time around for Minnesota’s cornerbacks, a group that has been decimated by injuries and could be down to Jeff Gladney, Harrison Hand and Kris Boyd to defend the top receiver in the NFC North. Adams has two games this season with at least 150 receiving yards and two touchdowns, and he’ll record his third in Week 8. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Cousins has 10 interceptions this season, tied for the most in the NFL. And the Vikings’ quarterback has three multi-interception games. The last Vikings QB with four in his first seven games of a season was Daunte Culpepper in 2005.
What to know for fantasy: Through seven weeks, there have been four instances in which a receiver scored 40-plus points. Adams has accounted for two of them. See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: Green Bay is 3-0 ATS against Minnesota since the start of last season. Read more.
Cronin’s pick: Packers 37, Vikings 30
Demovsky’s pick: Packers 27, Vikings 23
FPI prediction: GB, 60.8% (by an average of 3.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: The Vikings haven’t given up on 2020, but focus points to 2021 … Big help from those on training camp ‘bingo card’ bodes well for Packers … If Vikings are rebuilding, who should go by the trade deadline? … Packers’ Alexander must be ‘something special’ … Sizing up the NFC North: Who’s surprising, disappointing and more … Whether Packers are in the trade market or not, Rodgers is savoring the ride
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 65.4 | Spread: LAR -4 (46)
What to watch for: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa makes his first start and faces his first significant contact in 351 days. First up, Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Good luck, rookie. Ryan Fitzpatrick averaged 2.41 seconds time to throw, third best in the NFL, and that will be an important number for Tagovailoa to keep up against a strong Rams defense. How quick will Tagovailoa adjust his processing speed and quick decisions to the NFL game? If he doesn’t do so Sunday, Donald and the Rams’ defense could have a big day against a young Dolphins offensive line. — Cameron Wolfe
Bold prediction: Donald will tie his single-game career high of four sacks. The Rams’ defense is hitting its stride and is eager to pursue Tagovailoa in his first career start. The Rams rank third in the NFL with 24 sacks this season, led by Donald’s eight, so watch for them to feast on a Dolphins offense line that has a pass block win rate of 47.5% — 30th in the league. — Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know: Los Angeles quarterback Jared Goff has a career-high 81% completion percentage outside the pocket this season, best in the NFL and more than 10% better than second place (69.25%). But in the pocket, his 65% rate is 24th in the NFL.
What to know for fantasy: Can Miami receiver DeVante Parker‘s fantasy efficiency sustain after the change under center? Since the beginning of last season, Parker’s 1.95 points per target rank 15th best among 58 qualified receivers, ahead of high-end options such as Amari Cooper and Terry McLaurin. See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: Since the start of last season, QBs making their first career start are 11-4 ATS (2-1 ATS this season). Read more.
Thiry’s pick: Rams 28, Dolphins 17
Wolfe’s pick: Rams 27, Dolphins 20
FPI prediction: LAR, 56.2% (by an average of 2.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Hekker’s punting master class draws raves, hugs from Rams teammates … Tagovailoa era begins: What to expect from Dolphins’ rookie QB … ‘Way more important than any play I can make’: Rams’ Ramsey steps up for Nashville charter school … Source: Dolphins sign Shaheen to 2-year extension … It’s Tua Time: McShay on Tagovailoa’s debut … Dolphins’ decision to start Tagovailoa ‘heartbreaking,’ Fitzpatrick says
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 53.9 | Spread: BUF -3.5 (42.5)
What to watch for: In three career games against the Patriots, Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen has completed just 48.4% of his passes, averaging just 192.6 passing yards per game with three touchdowns and five interceptions. Meanwhile, Bills coach Sean McDermott is winless in six tries against Bill Belichick. Look for both men to change their fortunes Sunday. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction: Punters Jake Bailey (Patriots) and Corey Bojorquez (Bills) will play defining roles in determining the final outcome. Temperatures in Western New York are expected to be in the 40s, with a chance of rain and wind gusts possibly exceeding 20 mph. So ballhandling and field position will be critical. Bailey has been excellent this season — he’s the AFC leader in net punting at 47.9 yards — while Bojorquez has shown a powerful leg when the Bills are pinned deep (a long of 72 yards). — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: This is the Patriots’ first three-game losing streak since 2002, when they lost four straight. And per Elias Sports Bureau research, this is the first time they are more than two games back in the division at any point in a season since 2000. To get back on track, they’ll need a jump in performance from quarterback Cam Newton, who has a 15.3 Total QBR in his past three starts.
What to know for fantasy: Who gets right? The Patriots have allowed a touchdown on 5.4% of their passes faced this season (below league average and way down from their league leading rate of 2.4% last season), but Allen is coming off a game against the Jets in which he threw 43 passes without a score. See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: This is the first time New England has been an underdog in a division game since Week 2 of the 2015 season (at Buffalo). Read more.
Reiss’ pick: Bills 23, Patriots 20
Louis-Jacques’ pick: Bills 20, Patriots 10
FPI prediction: BUF, 58.8% (by an average of 3.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Patriots ready to provide slumping Newton the support he needs … Are the Bills ready to bury the Patriots, seize control of AFC East? … Patriots QB Newton admits starting job could be in jeopardy after being pulled in loss … Against zone coverage, Bills’ Beasley, Allen find ways to thrive
1:53
Former Patriot Damien Woody sounds off on how “disgusted” he is with the Patriots’ 2-4 start.
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 50.2 | Spread: KC -19.5 (49)
What to watch for: The best way for the Jets to stay competitive would seem to be forcing turnovers, which is one thing New York does well. They’re eighth in forcing turnovers (10) and eighth in interceptions (7). But turning over the Chiefs is difficult. Kansas City has committed just five turnovers, fourth best in the league. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown just one interception, and his 0.4% interception percentage is the best in the league. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: The Jets will move the ball between the 20s against the Chiefs, who are yielding a rather hefty 4.9 yards per rush, but they will take an oh-fer in the red zone. Let’s call it 0-for-3. That is the Jets’ Achilles’ heel on offense, with a league-low 25% success rate in the red zone. So, no, there will be no stunning upset. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Jets have lost all seven of their games this season by more than seven points; the 1984 Oilers are the only team since the merger to start 0-8 with all eight losses going for more than seven points. Furthermore, New York has a minus-118 point differential this season, and a 20-point loss would mark the team’s worst point differential through eight games in franchise history (minus-137 in 1976).
What to know for fantasy: Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill has scored more than 15.5 fantasy points in six of seven games despite not yet having a 100-yard game (and four games under 65 yards). See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: Reigning champions are just 2-8 ATS against teams that entered with 0-6 (or worse) outright records. And they’ve failed to cover each of the past seven times in that spot since 1978. Read more.
Cimini’s pick: Chiefs 34, Jets 10
Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 30, Jets 13
FPI prediction: KC, 94.1% (by an average of 21.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jets ready to meet Bell, new member of Gase alumni all-stars … Chiefs like their Edwards-Helaire, Bell partnership … Frustration builds for Jets’ Darnold, whose time is running out … Chiefs see big plays delivered by ‘non-scholarship’ players … Projected 2021 NFL draft order: Jets are favorite for No. 1
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 42.7 | Spread: CLE -2.5 (53.5)
What to watch for: How will the Browns’ offense respond minus star receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who is out for the season with a knee injury? Beckham leads the team in targets. Quarterback Baker Mayfield will have to find a connection elsewhere, as he now has 10 straight games with a TD pass, the second-longest streak of his career (17 games from 2018 to ’19). — Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: The Raiders, bolstered by the return of right tackle Trent Brown, will shut out the league’s leading sack master in Browns defensive end Myles Garrett, who already has nine sacks and has had a sack in six straight games. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: Cleveland running back Kareem Hunt has seven scrimmage touchdowns this season. The Browns are 5-0 when Hunt scores but 0-2 in games in which he fails to find the end zone.
What to know for fantasy: Mayfield averaged 1.07 fantasy points per pass attempt in the big win over the Bengals, more than 2.5 times his season rate prior to the game. See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: All six Raiders games this season have gone over the total. The longest over streak from the start of a season was the 2002 Saints, who started the season with nine consecutive overs. Read more.
Gutierrez’s pick: Raiders 28, Browns 27
Trotter’s pick: Browns 27, Raiders 26
FPI prediction: CLE, 55.2% (by an average of 1.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Revisiting Raiders-Browns and ‘Red Right 88’: ‘That was a hell of a play in our history’ … Browns not better without OBJ, but Mayfield might be … Despite blowout loss, Raiders find silver (and black) linings in strange week … Big Ben and the Heismans — Sizing up AFC North’s QBs
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 40.4 | Spread: IND -2.5 (50)
What to watch for: The Lions have been much better against the run the past two weeks, holding Jacksonville and Atlanta under 100 rushing yards. For Detroit to win Sunday, it’ll probably have to make it three straight, this time against rookie Jonathan Taylor, who has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in each of his past four games. How the Lions handle that matchup could determine the game. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: Colts receiver TY Hilton’s string of not having at least 100 yards receiving will end at 17 games. Hilton, who is off to the slowest start of his nine-year career, hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game since he had 138 against the Giants on Dec. 23, 2018. — Mike Wells
Stat to know: Indianapolis quarterback Philip Rivers has a season-high three passing touchdowns against the Bengals before last week’s bye, but he has not posted multiple passing scores in consecutive games since Weeks 13-14 of last season. And Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford is coming off his first 300-yard passing game of the season against the Falcons, but he has not passed for 300 yards or more in consecutive games since a three-game streak from Weeks 7-9 of 2019.
What to know for fantasy: Lions running back D’Andre Swift has three scores over his past two games (two touchdowns this season prior) and is averaging 15 touches in those games (6.3 in prior games). See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: Indianapolis is 11-3-1 ATS coming off of a bye week since the start of the 2005 season. Read more.
Wells’ pick: Colts 28, Lions 20
Rothstein’s pick: Lions 27, Colts 23
FPI prediction: IND, 57.3% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Colts’ undrafted, productive tight ends share underdog bond … Sizing up the NFC North: Who’s surprising, disappointing and more … Former Colts WR Orr dies at 85 … Time for Lions to step up and pay Golladay
0:41
Field Yates notes that TE T.J. Hockenson has been very productive in fantasy this season, but Mike Clay isn’t encouraged by the TE’s tough matchup against the Colts.
1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 40.0 | Spread: TEN -6 (54.5)
What to watch for: This game could feature a ton of points. The Bengals are ranked 21st in points allowed, while the Titans are tied for 16th. Cincinnati rookie quarterback Joe Burrow will have to protect the ball and make smart decisions against a Tennessee team ranked first in the NFL in total takeaways. — Ben Baby
Bold prediction: The Titans’ offense will start out on fire, especially in the passing game. Once they get a comfortable lead, they’ll turn to running back Derrick Henry to close it out. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill will finish with 300 passing yards, Derrick Henry will rush for 150 yards and A.J. Brown will have 100 yards receiving. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: The Bengals are tied for the most sacks allowed this season with the Eagles (28), and their 34.3% pass rush win rate is the league’s fourth worst.
What to know for fantasy: Burrow has reached 300 passing yards in five of his past six starts, but should you worry about the Browns not being this week’s opposition? In two games against Cleveland this season, Burrow has six touchdown passes. In his other five games, that total is just three. See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: The over is 14-2 in the regular season in Tennessee games since Tannehill took over as the starting quarterback last season. Read more.
Davenport’s pick: Titans 42, Bengals 28
Baby’s pick: Titans 45, Bengals 31
FPI prediction: TEN, 63.7% (by an average of 4.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Titans are 5-1, but their defense can’t get off the field on third down … Sign of progress under Taylor is also biggest obstacle in Bengals’ rebuild … After 16 starts with Titans, how does Tannehill compare with NFL’s best? … Dunlap trade shows Bengals are all in on Taylor … Bengals’ injury situation latest test for Burrow
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 28.2 | Spread: LAC -3 (44)
What to watch for: How will Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert handle a variety of coverage looks from the Broncos, ranked 13th in the league in pass defense? There will be no blizzard this week in Denver, but the Broncos are coming off a snow-swept game in which the defense was the only unit that showed up, as it held the Chiefs to 286 total yards and no third-down conversions. Herbert has faced three top-10 pass defenses this season, and he completed 72% of his passes in those games with five touchdowns and all three of his interceptions. He has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions in his other two starts combined. — Jeff Legwold
Bold prediction: Look for Herbert to throw for 300-plus yards with receiver Mike Williams making a reemergence. Denver is shot, and the Chargers are hot … sort of. No way Herbert goes into the Mile High City and doesn’t take advantage of that thin air. Everyone is wondering whether Herbert can throw it over the mountain. — Shelley Smith
Stat to know: Broncos quarterback Drew Lock has a 19.9 Total QBR in the past two weeks, third worst among 32 qualified QBs and ahead of only Cam Newton (13.0) and Joe Flacco (11.6) over that span.
What to know for fantasy: Herbert has seen his fantasy production spike in three straight and has 10 touchdown passes against one interception in those games (two touchdown passes and two interceptions prior). See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Chargers are 5-1 ATS this season, tied with Green Bay and Pittsburgh for the best cover percentage in the NFL. Read more.
Smith’s pick: Chargers 42, Broncos 12
Legwold’s pick: Broncos 22, Chargers 21
FPI prediction: DEN, 53.3% (by an average of 1.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chargers’ Allen provides consistency, establishes bond with Herbert … Art of the tipped pass: How the Broncos got so good … Herbert’s long-ball skills already paying dividends for the Chargers … Broncos’ Fant: Offense needs to ‘put up or shut up’ … Broncos still waiting to reap benefits of Lindsay-Gordon combo
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 88.3 | Spread: SEA -3 (53.5)
What to watch for: Wanna see a shootout? This matchup has all the makings of one. The Seahawks’ top three running backs are all question marks due to injuries, which could force them to focus their game plan around MVP front-runner Russell Wilson and his receivers. Their defense has already allowed the most yards through six games in NFL history and could again be without safety Jamal Adams. That’s a bad combination against an excellent playcaller in Kyle Shanahan. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Last week might have been National Tight Ends Day, but Sunday will be 49ers tight end George Kittle‘s day. Kittle will go for 150-plus yards and score at least once against a Seahawks defense that is struggling to stop everybody and has allowed an average of 14.8 yards per catch to tight ends, 31st in the league. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has the third-shortest average pass distance (6.5 air yards) and the fifth-worst interception rate (3.0%) since the start of last season, including playoffs. He’s the only QB to rank in the bottom five in both categories.
What to know for fantasy: Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett is doing some historic things through seven weeks, but he has been held in check over his past seven meetings with the 49ers (8.1 fantasy points per game). See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: Seattle is 13-4 ATS against San Francisco since the start of the 2012 season. Read more.
Wagoner’s pick: Seahawks 31, 49ers 27
Henderson’s pick: Seahwks 38, 49ers 35
FPI prediction: SEA, 50.3% (by an average of 0.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: 49ers’ YAC Bros the latest addition to Bay Area’s fraternal scene … Dunlap is Seahawks’ latest attempt to trade for a better defense … 49ers lose Samuel, Wilson for multiple weeks … Seahawks’ Lockett continues to show knack for the improbable
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
Matchup rating: 59.2 | Spread: NO -4 (43.5)
What to watch for: The Bears seemed to be in shambles after Monday night’s debacle in Los Angeles. All is lost, right? Not so fast. Looks can be deceiving, particularly when it pertains to the Bears. But since coach Matt Nagy took over in 2018, the Bears are 8-4 following a loss, and more importantly, 5-0 on short weeks. The Bears are often at their best when expectations are at their lowest. — Jeff Dickerson
Bold prediction: Chicago quarterback Nick Foles will bounce back from Monday night’s dud with at least one deep touchdown pass. The Saints have now allowed six passes of 48-plus yards in their past four games. But the Saints will see running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray combine for 150 rushing yards. — Mike Triplett
Stat to know: The Saints’ 78.7 offensive efficiency is sixth in the NFL, but their 23.2 defensive efficiency ranks 28th. No team has made the playoffs with a defensive efficiency below 30 since efficiency ratings began in 2006.
What to know for fantasy: Kamara is looking to join Saquon Barkley, Todd Gurley II and DeMarco Murray as the only non-QBs since 2001 to open a season with 19.9 fantasy points in each of their teams’ first seven games. See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: New Orleans is 14-4 ATS on the road since the start of the 2018 season. Read more.
Triplett’s pick: Saints 27, Bears 23
Dickerson’s pick: Bears 23, Saints 21
FPI prediction: NO, 61.5% (by an average of 4.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Brees, Saints still have that two-minute-drill magic … Sizing up the NFC North: Who’s surprising, disappointing and more … Former LB Briggs channels inner superhero with new graphic novel
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC
Matchup rating: 29.8 | Spread: PHI -7.5 (42.5)
What to watch for: Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has committed a league-high 12 turnovers this season. His 10 interceptions are tied with Kirk Cousins for the most in the NFL. That would seem to be good news for the Cowboys. The only issue? Dallas’ defense has forced an NFL-low three takeaways. Something has to give. — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Philadelphia running back Boston Scott will rush for more than 100 yards. He has just 113 on the season through seven games, but the Cowboys have allowed more than 200 yards rushing as a team in three of the past four games. They are allowing a league-worst 178.3 yards per game on the ground. Even with a banged-up offensive line, the Eagles will be able to get the job done with Scott on the ground. Miles Sanders hasn’t practiced this week. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: Eagles receiver Travis Fulgham is the only NFL player with at least 350 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns over the past four weeks (third-most receiving yards in that span, behind only George Kittle and Robby Anderson). The Cowboys have allowed 12 receiving TDs to wide receivers this season, tied for the most league-wide.
What to know for fantasy: Wentz has posted two of his top three career fantasy games over the past two weeks and now gets a Cowboys defense that has allowed not one, not two, but three quarterbacks to rack up north of 28 fantasy points against them this season. See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: This is the first time Dallas has ever started 0-7 ATS, and it’s one short of the longest winless streak to start a season against the spread over the past 20 seasons. Oakland in 2003 failed to cover in each of its first eight games of the season. Read more.
Archer’s pick: Eagles 31, Cowboys 17
McManus’ pick: Eagles 30, Cowboys 13
FPI prediction: PHI, 72.9% (by an average of 8.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: It’s time for these two-win Cowboys to make some bold changes … How can the Eagles unlock Wentz? Think LeBron James … McCartney gets last laugh when Twitter confuses him for Cowboys coach
2:36
Tim McManus and Todd Archer go back and forth discussing the injuries suffered by the Eagles and Cowboys leading into their Week 8 matchup.
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN
Matchup rating: 54.9 | Spread: TB -10.5 (46.5)
What to watch for: Watch how Tampa Bay quarterback Tom Brady attacks this Giants secondary. Brady and the Bucs are third in the NFL in averaging 31.7 points per game. They get to face a Giants defense that is in the bottom half of the league in pass defense (21st) despite facing four backup quarterbacks in their first seven games. This is a different kind of test. — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: Buccaneers linebacker Devin White will get double-digit tackles, pass-rusher Jason Pierre-Paul will get two sacks and the Bucs’ defense will give up just one touchdown. Tampa Bay isn’t overlooking this one, even against a one-win Giants squad, and its defense hasn’t forgotten the 18-point lead it blew to New York quarterback Daniel Jones last year in a 32-31 loss at home. But this is a much different Bucs defense, and both White and Pierre-Paul were out because of injuries in that matchup last season. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Giants are the only NFL team to lose six of their first seven games in three of the past four seasons. They are guaranteed to start no better than 2-6 through eight games for the fourth straight season, and they would start 1-7 for the third time in the past four seasons with a loss.
Injuries: Buccaneers | Giants
What to know for fantasy: Brady is looking for consecutive 30-point games for the first time since Weeks 2-3 of 2017, after producing his best game since Week 6 of 2009 (36.9 fantasy points) against the Raiders. See Week 8 rankings.
Betting nugget: The Giants are 0-7 ATS as a home underdog since the start of last season. If you go back to the start of the 2018 season, New York is 1-12 ATS as a home underdog. Read more.
Laine’s pick: Buccaneers 33, Giants 18
Raanan’s pick: Buccaneers 29, Giants 17
FPI prediction: TB, 83.0% (by an average of 12.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Brady, Big Ben are about to become the most-sacked QBs ever: How they got here, and who’s next … Tight end Engram, Giants could both benefit from trade … Bucs’ Brady defying Father Time, expectations in Arians’ offense … Giants coach Judge says team will deal with maskless players internally … Why the Buccaneers are the NFL’s best team — by a mile