Free 2008 NFL Picks for Week 5 New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers Spreads and Predictions

Here are the latest spreads and lines along with our free pick and prediction for the NFL Week 5 game between the New England Patriots and the San Francisco 49ers :

New England Patriots -3 (120) vs San Francisco +3 (Ev)

• Breakdown and Analysis:
o Before their bye week the Patriots allowed the Dolphins to gain 461 yards on offense, 4 rushing TDs, and a passing TD.
o Matt Cassel in his second start since high school, went 19-31 for 131 yards, 1 TD, 1INT, and 3 sacks against the Dolphins.
o With Cassel at QB, Randy Moss continues to struggle, with only 12 receptions for 163 yards.
o The Patriots are 0-4 when playing in San Francisco, while winning two home games against the 49ers.
o J.T. O’Sullivan continues play well at QB for the 49ers, but last week he was intercepted twice in the end zone and got sacked 6 times. Frank Gore is also having a good year, he is averaging 4.9 yards a carry.

• Trends:
o In their last 9 games, the Patriots are 1-8 ATS.
o They are 20-2 SU in their last 22 games.
o On the road the Patriots are 14-5 ATS.
o On the road the Patriots are 5-0 SU.
o The Patriots have gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games.
o The 49ers are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games.
o The 49ers are 5-13 in their last 18 games.
o The 49ers have gone UNDER in 4 out of their last 5 games.
o At home the 49ers have gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games.
o The 49ers are 6-2 SU in their last 6 games against the Patriots.
o The 49ers and Patriots have gone UNDER in 4 out of their last 5 meetings.

Pick – Take the 49ers +3.Take the UNDER 41. Oddsmakers continue to give the Patriots too much credit. The Patriots have given up 140.7 rushing yards per game. Look for Frank Gore to turn it on at home. The Patriots are a whole new team without Tom Brady. Offensively the 49ers have outgained the Patriots 334.5 to 271.3 in total offense.

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